European equity: earning(s) respect
- **Earnings Resilience**: Solid 10.7% 12m forward EPS growth since Iran war, with consensus rebounding on positive data despite geopolitical shocks, indicating stronger-than-expected corporate performance.
- **US-EA Surprise Divergence**: US consistently shows higher economic surprise indices than EA, with EA volatility spiking (e.g., late 2024), signaling potential capital outflows from Eurozone to US markets.
- **Earnings Revision Risk**: Negative earnings revision ratios spike during crises (e.g., Aug-09, Aug-19), correlating with Eurozone PMI downturns, highlighting economic weakness as a direct earnings risk for Stoxx 600.