LONG EM CARRY
- **Fed Hawkishness Easing**: Weaker US labor data (3.2% avg hourly earnings) and retail sales decline reduce Fed hiking urgency, intensifying dollar weakness; structural dollar bear case persists due to US allies' alienation and diversification trends.
- **EM FX Basket Trade**: Added long positions in IDR, ZAR, HUF, BRL, MXN, COP, CLP vs USD, supported by resilient EM carry regime, improved EM FX carry indicator (z-score 0.6), and manageable oil surge risk.
- **China Oil Import Structural Shift**: Crude oil imports fell to 35.7 million tons (2026), signaling structural energy strategy change with implications for global oil demand, supply chains, and energy transition investments.