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The desk research, the way the analysts wrote it. 分析师原文研报，原汁原味呈现。

Showing the latest saved institutional reports.Refreshing the latest institutional reports. New buy-side and sell-side desk reports land here hourly — read the ones that touch what you hold. 正在显示最近保存的机构研报。正在刷新最新机构研报。买方与卖方研究每小时更新至此 —— 挑与你持仓相关的读。

The research the desks write for their clients — now on yours. 机构写给客户的研报 —— 现在也在你手中。
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Refreshing the latest reports…正在刷新最新研报…
S&TSELL

GS Meschoulam Carry without Confirmation 18 Aug 2026

  • **Real Rates Threshold**: US 10Y real yields near 2.50% (restrictive post-GFC) signal conditional carry regime; rally requires yields falling to 2.00%, else risk assets reprice.
  • **Growth-Rate Scenarios**: Two critical paths: 1) Growth slows + real rates fall (supports equities/credit/EM carry/gold); 2) Growth slows but real rates stay high (uncomfortable for risk assets due to sticky inflation/fiscal concerns).
  • **Structural Real Yield Shift**: Oil >$90/bbl and persistent 2.5% real yields reflect structural factors (fiscal risk, inflation volatility, capital demand), not cyclical, complicating disinflation and easing cycles.
  • **Risk Asset Tension**: Market mispricing risk if real yields stay 2.4-2.6% without easing confirmation; 10Y yields to 2.0-2.25% required to validate equity/credit/EM carry positioning.
Aug 18, 2026 · 17:57 UTC
Goldman SachsSELL

Global Markets Daily Europe’s Fixed Maturity Funds — A Fading Marginal Tailwind for EUR Credit

  • **Fixed-Maturity Fund Tailwind Fading**: Retail demand for fixed-income target maturity funds (€270B AUM since 2021) slowing due to moderated EU household fixed-income allocations, preference for cash over credit, and equity returns competing for marginal savings.
  • **EUR IG Spread Widening Expected**: Technical backdrop weakened by fading retail tailwind and AI-related capex financing supply headwind, reinforcing modest EUR IG spread widening into year-end.
  • **Conservative Mandate Shift**: Avg.
  • target maturity fell to 4y post-2022 hiking cycle (rebounded recently), with realized returns aligning with EUR IG signaling increased conservatism in fund mandates.
Aug 18, 2026 · 16:25 UTC
Goldman SachsSELL

China SAFE data suggest modest FX inflows in July

  • **FX Inflow Moderation**: Net $7bn July FX inflows (vs $34bn June); current account $41bn inflows (goods $61bn surplus, services $13bn deficit); portfolio outflows $9bn; FX conversion ratio fell to 54% (June: 65%).
  • **Foreign Bond Demand**: Sustained foreign investor purchases of RMB bonds (Exhibit 3), indicating persistent capital inflows into China’s financial markets despite broader FX flow slowdown.
  • **Reserve Volatility Signal**: Official FX reserves declined $11bn post-valuation adjustment, contrasting with rising banks’ net external assets (Exhibit 4), highlighting valuation-driven reserve management risks.
Aug 18, 2026 · 16:25 UTC

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Not investment advice. The Research Vault hosts third-party institutional research for reference and education. Highlighted reports are chosen for the quality of their argument, not as recommendations to buy or sell. Documents are provided by their authors; ratings and views are the authors', not ours. Access is metered and every download is watermarked — not for redistribution. 非投资建议。研报库仅收录第三方机构研究，供参考与学习之用。精选报告因其论证质量入选，并非买卖建议。文档由作者提供，其中评级与观点均属作者本人，与本平台无关。访问受配额限制，下载均加水印 —— 不得转发。

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