TLTS LombardIndependent独立
PUTTING MONEY BACK INTO MONETARY POLICY
- Monetarist Revival Superficiality: Central banks (e.g., Fed via Warsh) cite monetary aggregates for inflation signals but maintain interest rate focus; historical monetarist failures (Goodhart’s law, 1970s deregulation) render this revival ineffective for policy shifts.
- Weak Money-Inflation Correlation: Chart 19 shows low R² (0.3226) between excess broad money and inflation (2020Q4-2022Q3), undermining monetarist forecasting and policy relevance.
- Fiscal Policy as Primary Inflation Driver: Post-COVID inflation stemmed from combined fiscal expansion + QE (not money supply alone), per BIS analysis, exposing monetarism’s incompleteness.
- Monetarist Forecasting Failure: Errors in predicting money supply contraction (e.g., Steve Hank’s 2023 recession call) and velocity rebound prove models lack macro forecasting utility.