🗓 Factor seasonality因子季节性

which calendar months each factor STYLE has tended to pay — Ken French, 1926-07+各因子风格在哪些月份历史上更易获得回报 — Ken French,1926-07 起

These are Ken French TOTAL-US-MARKET academic factor portfolios (value-weighted long/short, 1926/1963+), NOT our S&P-1500 winsorized z-score quintiles. A month's seasonal tendency describes the long-run CLIMATE of the style — it is not a forecast of our daily factor leadership, and it is deliberately kept out of every calibrated score.这些是 Ken French 的全市场学术因子组合(市值加权多空,1926/1963 年至今),并非我们对标普 1500 的去极值 z 分数分位。某月的季节性倾向描述的是该风格的长期气候,而非对我们每日因子领先的预测,且刻意不纳入任何校准评分。

Factors & seasonality overview因子与季节性概览

July7月 · July is usually a rough month for the market's recent winners — the momentum style fell in 7 of the last 10 Julys, including the last 5 straight, while the market itself was up in 100% of them.7月通常是市场近期赢家的困难月份——动量风格在过去 10 个7月中下跌了 7 次(含连续 5 年),而大盘在其中 100% 的时间上涨。

Watch — don't chase this month's hottest stocks.观望——本月不要追逐最热门的股票。

Jul: usually a rough month for hot stocks (fell in 7/10) · context only7月:热门股历来偏弱(近10年7次下跌)· 仅供参考

Seasonality mosaic — mean return × hit-rate by month季节性矩阵 — 各月平均回报 × 命中率 ?A factor × calendar-month grid. The big number is that month's average factor return across all years (green = positive, red = negative; deeper = larger); the small number is the hit-rate (% of years that month was positive). Hover any cell for mean, median, hit-rate and sample size. The current month column is outlined. Median + hit-rate matter because a single crisis month can swing a 30-year average.因子 × 日历月份网格。大数为该月历年平均因子回报(绿=正、红=负;越深越大);小数为命中率(该月为正的年份比例)。悬停查看均值、中位数、命中率与样本量。当前月份列已描边。中位数与命中率很重要,因为单个危机月可大幅扭曲 30 年均值。

Factor因子JFMAMJJASOND
Value (HML)价值 (HML) +0.540%+0.540%-1.540%-0.130%-1.320%-2.410%+0.140%-0.830%+0.750%+1.670%+1.570%+1.170%
Profitability (RMW)盈利 (RMW) -0.830%-0.070%+0.860%+0.670%-0.260%-0.070%+0.860%+0.150%-0.640%+0.370%+0.840%+0.570%
Investment (CMA)投资 (CMA) -0.030%-0.330%+0.550%-0.430%-0.740%-0.550%-0.850%-0.730%+0.250%+0.040%+0.760%+1.270%
Momentum (Mom)动量 (Mom) ref参考 -0.260%+0.260%+0.140%+1.470%+2.090%-0.340%-0.630%+2.380%+0.560%+1.280%-2.130%-1.020%
Size (SMB)规模 (SMB) ref参考 -0.340%+0.170%-1.730%-0.840%+0.350%+1.090%+0.250%-0.440%-0.140%-1.430%+1.150%+0.240%
Market (Mkt-RF)市场 (Mkt-RF) ref参考 +2.170%-0.540%-1.460%+1.970%+1.880%+1.980%+3.3100%+0.970%-1.360%+0.550%+4.480%-0.160%
Factor因子JFMAMJJASOND
Value (HML)价值 (HML) -0.443%+0.447%+0.560%+0.653%-0.237%-1.430%+0.643%+0.147%+0.353%+0.250%+0.450%+0.967%
Profitability (RMW)盈利 (RMW) -0.737%+0.153%+0.867%+0.873%-0.057%+0.367%+1.170%+0.047%+0.353%+0.453%+0.557%+0.063%
Investment (CMA)投资 (CMA) -0.043%+0.540%+0.350%+0.147%-0.050%-0.733%+0.160%+0.243%-0.047%+0.360%+0.753%+0.667%
Momentum (Mom)动量 (Mom) ref参考 -0.963%+1.657%+0.260%-1.950%-0.163%+2.070%+0.550%+0.653%+1.767%+0.357%-0.760%+1.057%
Size (SMB)规模 (SMB) ref参考 +0.457%+0.453%-0.850%-0.640%+0.253%+1.680%-0.940%-0.147%-0.143%-0.937%+0.553%+0.747%
Market (Mkt-RF)市场 (Mkt-RF) ref参考 +0.357%-0.147%+0.667%+1.870%+0.867%+0.560%+1.060%-0.460%-0.757%+1.463%+2.680%+1.067%
Factor因子JFMAMJJASOND
Value (HML)价值 (HML) +1.971%+0.555%+0.251%+0.858%-0.146%-0.249%+1.055%+0.551%-0.149%-0.150%-0.244%-0.050%
Profitability (RMW)盈利 (RMW) -1.030%+0.052%+0.556%+0.768%+0.362%+0.361%+0.760%+0.149%+0.360%+0.559%+0.454%+0.260%
Investment (CMA)投资 (CMA) +0.656%+0.649%+0.556%+0.251%-0.246%-0.245%+0.360%+0.349%+0.254%+0.251%+0.254%+0.356%
Momentum (Mom)动量 (Mom) ref参考 -1.544%+1.163%+1.168%+0.265%+0.765%+1.065%-0.052%-0.157%+1.170%+0.965%+0.865%+2.274%
Size (SMB)规模 (SMB) ref参考 +1.972%+0.662%-0.054%-0.244%+0.349%+0.148%-0.443%-0.149%+0.253%-0.840%+0.348%+0.046%
Market (Mkt-RF)市场 (Mkt-RF) ref参考 +1.262%+0.355%+0.463%+1.162%+0.463%+0.756%+1.460%+0.962%-1.148%+0.255%+1.568%+1.376%

Source: Ken French Data Library (Dartmouth), monthly factor returns, as of 2026-05. Factors mapping to one of our live legs (Value→HML, Profitability→RMW, Investment→CMA) are shown first; Momentum, Size and Market are reference styles we do not rank cross-sectionally. Seasonality is descriptive context only and is deliberately kept out of every calibrated score — see LIMITATIONS.md.来源:Ken French Data Library (Dartmouth), monthly factor returns,截至 2026-05。映射到我们在用因子的(价值→HML、盈利→RMW、投资→CMA)排在前面;动量、规模与市场为我们未做横截面排名的参考风格。季节性仅为描述性背景,刻意不纳入任何校准评分 — 参见 LIMITATIONS.md。 Generated生成于 2026-07-21 02:20 UTC