Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Industrials / AAL
American Airlines Group · Industrials
AAL US listed · USD美股 · 美元
American Airlines Group Inc. is an American publicly traded airline holding company headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.美国航空集团是一家美国上市航空控股公司，总部位于德克萨斯州沃斯堡。
Large cap大盘 · $10B
Distressed困境股
Industrials
S&P 400标普400中盘
$15.27
-$0.16 · -1.04%
52w low52周低 $9.91high高 $18.48
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
You missed the bottoming entry — the low already formed and price is now extended (momentum is fading — the 3-day/weekly momentum has crossed down). Don't…已错过筑底入场——低点已经形成，目前价格已拉伸（动量正在衰竭——3 日/周线动量已向下交叉）。不要追高；等待回调至 10 日均线或下一个周期低点。若已持有则继续持有。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-08-03
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅作背景参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅作背景参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-03
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
48
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-1.0% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+11.2% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
83th percentile第83百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-07-23Estimates being raised — 10 analysts预期上调 — 10 位分析师
Valuation估值
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理| Multiple指标 | AAL | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 90.84x | 29.65 | |
| P/S市销率 | 0.18x | 2.18 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.10% | 3.17 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | -6.74% | 3.86 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 10.17x | 16.04 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 25.8%
Earnings per share每股收益
Free cash flow自由现金流
Operating margin营业利润率
2.7%
Net margin净利率
0.2%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
5.7%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 4/8
Bankruptcy risk: distress zone破产风险：警戒区
Return on equity股本回报率 -3%
Watch关注
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA7.42
Current ratio流动比率0.50
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$57.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+0.4%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
News新闻
1 recent stories — mixed1 篇最新报道，多空参半
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Travel & Experiences theme — #19 of 47 themes「旅行与体验」主题 — 47 个主题中第 19 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.99%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±6.69%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$15
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-3.3%
Flow:资金流向： $3M premium traded; 31% 0DTE; 16 fresh positions; P/C 0.87; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $3M；0DTE占31%；16个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.87；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: fear偏斜：避险
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$1.4M net (0 buyers, 1 sellers)-$1.4M 净值（0 买家，1 卖家）
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Appaloosa (Tepper) | A | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
| Duquesne Family Office (Druckenmiller) | C | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS. A daily bottoming setup did fire (swing low in, momentum turned up), but it's LATE — price is already extended above the cycle low (formed ~6 day(s) ago @ 13.56) and momentum is fading — the 3-day/weekly momentum has crossed down. A momentum cross is a LAGGING confirmation: after a vertical run it only triggers once the move is mature, so the bottoming entry has already passed. This is a chase, not a fresh buy止盈。日线筑底形态确实已经触发（摆动低点出现、动量转向上行），但为时已晚——价格已显著高于周期低点（约 6 天前形成 @ 13.56）且动量正在衰竭——3 日/周线动量已向下交叉。动量交叉属于滞后确认：在垂直拉升之后，只有当走势已经成熟时才会触发，因此筑底入场早已错过。这是追高，而非新的买入
Jul 29, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 28, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 27, 2026
AAL StochRSI turned up from oversoldAAL StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $14.95.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$14.95。
Jul 24, 2026
NEARING A LOW → BOTTOMING接近低点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 24, 2026
AAL reclaimed its 200-day averageAAL 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $14.48.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$14.48。
Jul 23, 2026
AAL lost its 200-day averageAAL 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $13.56.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$13.56。
Jul 8, 2026
AAL daily MACD crossed downAAL 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $16.52.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$16.52。
Jul 7, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 247 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
American Airlines Group Inc. is an American publicly traded airline holding company headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.美国航空集团是一家美国上市航空控股公司，总部位于德克萨斯州沃斯堡。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Above market高于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Above market高于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Capital intensity rising
Recent news最新动态
Insider Sale: SVP Corporate Controller of $AAL Sells 40,077 Shares
Quiver · 2026-07-31
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 90.8× | 29.6× | 4% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 0.2× | 2.2× | 98% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 10.2× | 16.0× | 82% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.1% | 3.2% | 13% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 30.7% | 5.6% | 98% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
83/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
91/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
67/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
72/100 — stronger than most强于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#93 / 261
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +5.5% | +1.1% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -15.9% | +0.2% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +29.0% | +3.7% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +14.8% | +8.3% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -1.4% | +9.6% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +32.9% | +19.2% |
| 3 Years近3年 | -5.9% | +69.4% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
1.89
Volatility rank波动率分位
83th pctile
Short interest空头占比
9.6% of float
Market cap市值
$10B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$0.17
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-15.9%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $17.3B | $29.9B | $49.0B | $52.8B | $54.2B | $54.6B |
| EPS每股收益 | $-18.36 | $-3.09 | $0.19 | $1.21 | $1.24 | $0.17 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $-8.5B | $496M | $-373M | $1.2B | $1.3B | $-680M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net margin净利率 | -51.2% | -6.7% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | -49.0% | 1.7% | -0.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | -1.2% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$54.6B
Net income净利润
$111M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$3.1B
Total assets总资产
$61.8B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$-3.7B
Shares outstanding总股本
0.66B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
-3.0%
Return on assets资产回报率
0.2%
Profit growth利润增速
-86.9%
Asset growth资产增速
-0.0%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals near the peer median盈利质量：应计利润接近同业中位
- Working capital: inventory & receivables lean vs sales营运资本：存货与应收相对销售保持精简
- Capital discipline: share count +6.2% over 6 years (dilution)资本纪律：股本 6 年增加 6.2%（稀释）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 0.66 — distress zone资产负债表：Altman Z 0.66——困境区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
48
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
56
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-2.4%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-1.0%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+11.2%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
3-day3日线
momentum down — fresh downturn动能向下——刚刚转弱
Weekly周线
momentum up动能向上
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
expanding — range opening up扩张中 — 波幅放大
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
79/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
10
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mixed分歧
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+14.1%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+6
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$17
Put wall看跌期权墙
$14
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$15
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$17
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$15
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
+4.7%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
0%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-3.3%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
-0.0pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Appaloosa (Tepper) | A | Exited清仓 | 0.0% | $217M |
| Duquesne Family Office (Druckenmiller) | C | Exited清仓 | 0.0% | $9,808 |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
2
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
0 : 2
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 13, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-06-30', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-08-11', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 2, 1, 0, 1, 2, 0, 0]}{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 13, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-06-30', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-08-11', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 2, 1, 0, 1, 2, 0, 0]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$1.4M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 1
Short interest空头占流通盘
9.6%
Days to cover回补天数
1.0
Short interest change空头变化
+9.9%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Nov · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Mar · 0%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 33% | -2.2% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 33% | -0.5% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 0% | -18.6% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 33% | -1.2% | 3 |
| May5月 | 67% | +14.5% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 50% | +3.4% | 4 |
| Jul7月 | 25% | -5.7% | 4 |
| Aug8月 | 67% | +0.6% | 3 |
| Sep9月 | 33% | -13.7% | 3 |
| Oct10月 | 67% | +16.6% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 100% | +8.5% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 100% | +10.5% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。