Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Financials / ACGL
Arch Capital Group · Financials
ACGL US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda exempted public company which writes insurance, reinsurance and mortgage insurance on a worldwide basis, with a focus on specialty lines, the segment of the insurance industry where the more difficult and unusual risks...Arch Capital Group Ltd. 是一家百慕大豁免的公众公司，在全球范围内承保保险、再保险和抵押贷款保险，专注于专业险种，即保险业中承保难度较大和不寻常风险的领域。
Large cap大盘 · $37B
Financials
Financial金融股
$101.69
Regular quote常规时段报价
-$1.00 · -0.97%
Extended quote unavailable. Showing the regular quote.盘前盘后报价暂不可用，现显示常规时段报价。
Pre-market盘前
·
52w low52周低 $83.77high高 $108
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
Trend intact — hold. Late in the cycle, so don't add here; a pullback is due.趋势完好——持有。已处周期晚期，此处不宜加仓；回调即将到来。
As of 2026-10-26截至 2026-10-26
Company news公司新闻
The latest reporting最新报道
One story, with the reporting behind it.将同一事件汇总，保留各来源报道。
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-10-26
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
63
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+4.3% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+5.3% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
60th percentile第60百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-10-272
Estimates being cut预期下调
Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期
Post-earnings drift: -8.8% (20d)财报后漂移：-8.8%（20日）
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 12.8%
Valuation估值
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜| Multiple指标 | ACGL | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 8.30x | 14.19 | |
| P/B市净率 | 1.51x | 1.48 | |
| P/S市销率 | 1.83x | 3.00 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 12.05% | 6.87 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 5.17% | 4.10 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$19.9B2025
20192025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 23.5%
Earnings per share每股收益
$11.602025
20192025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 24.6%
Free cash flow自由现金流
$6.1B2025
20192025
Net margin净利率
22.1%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
31.0%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 5/6
Return on equity股本回报率 18%
Clean稳健
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$1.9B
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$148.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-4.6%
Debt coming due到期债务
SEC filingsSEC 文件Its filings are available, but they do not break debt down by the year it comes due — every bucket below is unreported.已获取该公司的 SEC 文件，但文件中未按到期年度拆分债务 —— 以下各区间均未披露。
Next 12 months未来12个月
not reported未披露
Year 2第2年
not reported未披露
Year 3第3年
not reported未披露
Year 4第4年
not reported未披露
Year 5第5年
not reported未披露
After year 55年以后
not reported未披露
Not every company reports a year-by-year schedule. Nothing is being estimated in its place.并非所有公司都会披露逐年到期安排；此处不作任何估算替代。
A cash-flow scenario is unavailable until the filing inputs are verified.报告数据核实前，现金流情景暂不可用。
Capital-need coverage is not available for this issuer yet.该发行人的资本需求覆盖信息暂不可用。
Reported facts remain separate from the cash-flow scenario until identity and filing provenance are confirmed.在确认身份与报告来源之前，已披露事实与现金流情景保持分离。
Research context only — reported figures from SEC filings, not a rating, a signal or investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 数据摘自 SEC 文件披露口径，不构成评级、信号或投资建议。
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Insurance & Brokers theme — #8 of 49 themes「保险与经纪」主题 — 49 个主题中第 8 位
Macro宏观
Short-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate tailwind.短久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率顺风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
ACGL weekly MACD crossed upACGL 周线MACD上穿
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±1.47%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±3.29%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$93
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-3.5%
Skew: fear偏斜：避险
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$0.7M net (1 buyers, 2 sellers)-$0.7M 净值（1 买家，2 卖家）
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
BOTTOMING → UPTREND筑底中 → 上涨趋势
HOLD. The weekly (investor-cycle) momentum just crossed UP while price holds its 10-day average — the start of a new multi-month up-leg. A daily-overbought print here is the launch thrust, not a top, so this is a HOLD / ride, not a take-profit. The daily can still dip to its 10-day average (normal) — but the bigger investor cycle is early, with room left. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell持有。周线（投资者周期）动量刚刚向上交叉，且价格守住 10 日均线——这是新的多月上行段的起点。此处日线超买只是启动推力、并非见顶，因此应持有 / 顺势，而非止盈。日线仍可能回踩 10 日均线（属正常）——但更大的投资者周期尚处早期，仍有空间。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Oct 23, 2026
ACGL weekly MACD crossed upACGL 周线MACD上穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Oct 19, 2026
BOTTOMING → UPTREND筑底中 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Oct 12, 2026
ACGL reclaimed its 200-day averageACGL 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $97.16.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$97.16。
Oct 8, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Oct 7, 2026
ACGL daily MACD crossed upACGL 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $94.33.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$94.33。
Oct 6, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Oct 2, 2026
ACGL broke down vs the marketACGL 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $93.60.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$93.60。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 156 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda exempted public company which writes insurance, reinsurance and mortgage insurance on a worldwide basis, with a focus on specialty lines, the segment of the insurance industry where the more difficult and unusual risks...Arch Capital Group Ltd. 是一家百慕大豁免的公众公司，在全球范围内承保保险、再保险和抵押贷款保险，专注于专业险种，即保险业中承保难度较大和不寻常风险的领域。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Above market高于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Above market高于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 8.3× | 14.2× | 92% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 1.5× | 1.5× | 48% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 1.8× | 3.0× | 66% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 12.1% | 6.9% | 93% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 85% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 5.2% | 4.1% | 62% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
45/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
53/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
56/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
52/100 — middle of the pack居中
Rank in sector行业内排名
#99 / 262
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +0.4% | -0.4% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +6.9% | -1.0% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -1.6% | +3.1% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +5.7% | +7.0% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +8.3% | +12.1% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +16.3% | +14.4% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
-0.31
Volatility rank波动率分位
60th pctile
Short interest空头占比
2.1% of float
Market cap市值
$37B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$12.25
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-4.5%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20192019 | 20202020 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $6.9B | $9.2B | $9.6B | $13.6B | $17.4B | $19.9B |
| EPS每股收益 | $3.87 | $5.23 | $3.80 | $11.62 | $11.19 | $11.60 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $2.0B | $3.4B | $3.8B | $5.7B | $6.6B | $6.1B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net margin净利率 | 23.6% | 23.3% | 15.4% | 32.6% | 24.7% | 22.1% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 29.0% | 36.6% | 39.1% | 41.8% | 38.0% | 30.7% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$19.9B
Net income净利润
$4.4B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$6.2B
Total assets总资产
$79.2B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$24.2B
Buybacks股票回购
$1.9B
Shares outstanding总股本
0.36B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
18.2%
Return on assets资产回报率
5.6%
Profit growth利润增速
+2.0%
Asset growth资产增速
+11.8%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals near the peer median盈利质量：应计利润接近同业中位
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
63
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
52
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+4.6%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+4.3%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+5.3%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
Weekly周线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
88/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $2.56 | $2.49 | +2.8% |
| Mar 2026 | $2.50 | $2.45 | +2.0% |
| Dec 2025 | $2.98 | $2.49 | +19.7% |
| Sep 2025 | $2.77 | $2.19 | +26.5% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
12
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-0.3%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+4
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$105
Put wall看跌期权墙
$95
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$93
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$105
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$100
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
+8.1%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
0%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-3.5%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$0.7M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
1 : 2
Short interest空头占流通盘
2.1%
Days to cover回补天数
1.6
Short interest change空头变化
+5.8%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。