Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Financials / AON
Aon plc · Financials
AON US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Aon plc is a British-American professional services firm.怡安集团是一家英裔美籍专业服务公司。
Large cap大盘 · $77B
Distressed困境股
Financials
S&P 500标普500
$360.55
-$6.02 · -1.64%
52w low52周低 $303high高 $387
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
The bottoming setup is not yet confirmed (price still below the 10-day average) and the 3-day/weekly momentum is rolling over — momentum is fading before the…筑底形态尚未确认（价格仍位于 10 日均线下方），且3 日/周线动量已开始掉头向下——动量在形态完成前已开始衰竭。等待价格收复 10 日均线且动量趋于稳定后再考虑建仓。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-08-03
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅作背景参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅作背景参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-03
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
53
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+5.9% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+7.3% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
78th percentile第78百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-07-24Estimates being cut预期下调
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | AON | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 20.91x | 14.59 | |
| P/B市净率 | 8.26x | 1.52 | |
| P/S市销率 | 4.50x | 2.87 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 4.78% | 6.62 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 0.81% | 3.92 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 9.2%
Earnings per share每股收益
5-yr growth5年复合增速 15.0%
Free cash flow自由现金流
Operating margin营业利润率
25.3%
Net margin净利率
21.5%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
20.3%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 6/7
Bankruptcy risk: distress zone破产风险：警戒区
Return on equity股本回报率 40%
Watch关注
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA3.10
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$2.4B
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$432.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-0.8%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Insurance & Brokers theme — #10 of 47 themes「保险与经纪」主题 — 47 个主题中第 10 位
Macro宏观
Short-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate tailwind.短久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率顺风。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed +23.2%空头仓位变动 +23.2%
Technical技术面
AON daily MACD crossed downAON 日线MACD下穿
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±1.91%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±4.27%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$323
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
0.8%
Skew: balanced偏斜：balanced
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$4.8M net (1 buyers, 1 sellers)-$4.8M 净值（1 买家，1 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baupost Group (Klarman) | C | New position新建仓 | 4.8% | 2026-03-31 |
| Viking Global (Halvorsen) | B | Adding加仓 | 1.0% | 2026-03-31 |
| Polen Capital Management | B | trimtrim | 3.0% | 2026-03-31 |
| Berkshire Hathaway (Buffett) | B | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP. Buyers rejected the 2026-06-29 low (swing low printed) but price hasn't reclaimed its 10-day average — first box ticked, not all买入预备。买方拒绝了 2026-06-29 的低点（摆动低点已现），但价格尚未收复 10 日均线——第一项条件达成，并非全部
Jul 31, 2026
AON daily MACD crossed downAON 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $360.55.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$360.55。
Jul 30, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 28, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 28, 2026
AON made a new 52-week highAON 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $381.26.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$381.26。
Jul 28, 2026
AON daily MACD crossed upAON 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $381.26.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$381.26。
Jul 27, 2026
Golden cross on AONAON 金叉
The 50-day average crossed above the 200-day — a slow, widely-watched bullish trend signal. $367.17.50日均线上穿200日均线 — 一个滞后但广受关注的看多趋势信号。$367.17。
Jul 27, 2026
AON took relative-strength leadershipAON 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $367.17.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$367.17。
Jul 27, 2026
AON StochRSI turned up from oversoldAON StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $367.17.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$367.17。
Jul 24, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 22, 2026
AON daily MACD crossed downAON 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $352.33.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$352.33。
Jul 21, 2026
BUY ZONE → BOTTOMING买入区 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 114 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Aon plc is a British-American professional services firm.怡安集团是一家英裔美籍专业服务公司。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Above market高于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Above market高于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Above market高于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 20.9× | 14.6× | 23% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 8.3× | 1.5× | 2% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 4.5× | 2.9× | 31% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 4.8% | 6.6% | 26% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 4.5% | 8.3% | 18% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 0.8% | 3.9% | 10% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
25/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
73/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
44/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
30/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#186 / 263
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -0.3% | +1.1% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +4.9% | +0.2% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +15.7% | +3.7% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +3.4% | +8.3% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +5.0% | +9.6% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +1.8% | +19.2% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
-0.20
Volatility rank波动率分位
78th pctile
Short interest空头占比
2.1% of float
Market cap市值
$77B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$17.25
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-5.4%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $11.1B | $12.2B | $12.5B | $13.4B | $15.7B | $17.2B |
| EPS每股收益 | $8.45 | $5.55 | $12.14 | $12.51 | $12.49 | $17.02 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $2.6B | $2.0B | $3.0B | $3.2B | $2.8B | $3.2B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net margin净利率 | 18.2% | 10.3% | 20.7% | 19.2% | 16.9% | 21.5% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 23.9% | 16.8% | 24.2% | 23.8% | 17.9% | 18.7% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$17.2B
Net income净利润
$3.7B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$3.5B
Total assets总资产
$50.8B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$9.4B
Long-term debt长期负债
$14.7B
Dividends paid股息支出
$629M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.21B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
39.5%
Return on assets资产回报率
7.3%
Debt / assets负债/资产
28.9%
Profit growth利润增速
+39.2%
Asset growth资产增速
+3.7%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals elevated vs peers (earnings lean on non-cash items)盈利质量：应计利润高于同业（盈利依赖非现金项目）
- Working capital: working capital roughly in line with sales营运资本：营运资本与销售大致同步
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 1.8 — distress zone资产负债表：Altman Z 1.8——困境区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
53
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
16
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-0.5%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+5.9%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+7.3%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down — fresh downturn动能向下——刚刚转弱
3-day3日线
momentum up动能向上
Weekly周线
momentum up动能向上
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
56/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
6
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-0.2%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+0
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$390
Put wall看跌期权墙
$320
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$323
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$380
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$360
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
+10.5%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
0%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
+0.8%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baupost Group (Klarman) | C | New position新建仓 | 4.8% | $248,218 |
| Viking Global (Halvorsen) | B | Adding增持 | 1.0% | $351M |
| Polen Capital Management | B | Trimming减持 | 3.0% | $437M |
| Berkshire Hathaway (Buffett) | B | Exited清仓 | 0.0% | $1.3B |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
4
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
2 : 2
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 14, 'holders_first': 2, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -2, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-05-15', 'holders_series': [2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 0]}{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 14, 'holders_first': 2, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -2, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-05-15', 'holders_series': [2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 0]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$4.8M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
1 : 1
Short interest空头占流通盘
2.1%
Days to cover回补天数
4.0
Short interest change空头变化
+23.2%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。