Stocks股票 / Tech / APH
Amphenol · Tech
APH US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Amphenol Corporation is an American producer of electronic and fiber optic connectors, cable and interconnect systems such as coaxial cables. Amphenol is a portmanteau from the corporation's original name, American Phenolic Corp.Amphenol Corporation 是一家美国电子和光纤连接器、线缆及互连系统（如同轴电缆）生产商。Amphenol 是其原名 American Phenolic Corp. 的合成词。
Large cap大盘 · $185B
Broken growth成长受损
Tech
S&P 500标普500
$150.51
-$0.69 · -0.46%
52w low52周低 $94.55high高 $179
Constructive — building a base建设性 — 正在筑底
A cycle low is due in roughly ~0–3 trading days — watch for the turn, don't front-run it.周期低点预计在约 ~0–3 个交易日内出现——等待转向，切勿抢跑。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-07-21
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-07-21Death Cross (7/35)
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
43
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+1.2% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+7.2% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
20
No clear trend无明显趋势
Volatility波动率
60th percentile第60百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-07-222days to go天后公布
Estimates being raised — 4 analysts预期上调 — 4 位分析师
Post-earnings drift: -4.5% (20d)财报后漂移：-4.5%（20日）
Valuation估值
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理| Multiple指标 | APH | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 43.24x | 40.25 | |
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 25.8x | — | — |
| P/B市净率 | 13.76x | 5.91 | |
| P/S市销率 | 7.99x | 4.85 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 2.31% | 2.18 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 2.37% | 3.07 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 0.79% | 2.14 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 25.55x | 28.83 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 42.17x | 29.15 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 21.8%
Earnings per share每股收益
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -3.1%
Free cash flow自由现金流
Gross margin毛利率
36.9%
Operating margin营业利润率
25.4%
Net margin净利率
18.5%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
23.3%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 6/8
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Return on equity股本回报率 32%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-1.64
Current ratio流动比率2.98
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$665.2M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$135.4M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+1.4%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Technology (Equal-Weight) theme — #23 of 46 themes「信息技术（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 23 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±3.90%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±8.73%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$132
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-4.2%
Flow:资金流向： $7M premium traded; 26% 0DTE; 7 fresh positions; P/C 0.28; net new PUT positioning (defensive / hedging) (ΔOI +10,524); ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $7M；0DTE占26%；7个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.28；净新增看跌持仓（防御/对冲）（ΔOI +10,524）；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: fear偏斜：避险
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$311.5M net (1 buyers, 8 sellers)-$311.5M 净值（1 买家，8 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egerton Capital | C | trimtrim | 4.0% | 2026-03-31 |
| Lone Pine Capital | B | trimtrim | 0.2% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
GET READY. Day 41 of a typical 23-44-day cycle — inside the window where lows usually form, and short-term momentum is washed out. No confirmed turn yet. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell准备。典型 23-44 天周期的第 41 天——处于低点通常形成的窗口内，且短期动量已被洗净。尚无确认的转向。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Jul 7, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 7, 2026
APH daily MACD crossed downAPH 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $158.61.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$158.61。
Jul 6, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 2, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 30, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A HIGH上涨趋势 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jun 30, 2026
APH RSI reached overboughtAPH RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $176.32.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$176.32。
Jun 29, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A HIGH上涨趋势 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jun 29, 2026
APH made a new 52-week highAPH 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $166.42.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$166.42。
Jun 22, 2026
APH made a new 52-week highAPH 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $165.71.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$165.71。
Jun 17, 2026
APH took relative-strength leadershipAPH 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $160.87.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$160.87。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 3005 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Amphenol Corporation is an American producer of electronic and fiber optic connectors, cable and interconnect systems such as coaxial cables. Amphenol is a portmanteau from the corporation's original name, American Phenolic Corp.Amphenol Corporation 是一家美国电子和光纤连接器、线缆及互连系统（如同轴电缆）生产商。Amphenol 是其原名 American Phenolic Corp. 的合成词。
Demand chain:需求链： Hyperscaler capex accelerating (+69% YoY to ~$379B) — the demand pool for AI infrastructure (compute, memory, networking)云厂商资本开支加速（同比+69%，约 $379B）——AI 基础设施（算力／内存／网络）的需求来源
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 43.2× | 40.2× | 44% |
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 25.8× | — | — |
| Price / Book市净率 | 13.8× | 5.9× | 22% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 8.0× | 4.8× | 31% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 25.6× | 28.8× | 54% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 2.3% | 2.2% | 52% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 2.9% | 4.2% | 36% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 0.8% | 2.1% | 27% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
85/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
41/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
39/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
80/100 — stronger than most强于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#75 / 184
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -3.5% | -0.9% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -8.1% | -0.6% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -0.8% | +5.4% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -2.3% | +8.6% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +8.1% | +8.9% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +46.6% | +19.2% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +268.8% | +69.9% |
| 5 Years近5年 | +348.9% | +82.2% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
1.74
Volatility rank波动率分位
60th pctile
Short interest空头占比
1.3% of float
Market cap市值
$185B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$3.48
Dividend yield股息率
0.66%
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-14.6%
Volume vs normal成交量相对平常
0.6×
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $8.6B | $10.9B | $12.6B | $12.6B | $15.2B | $23.1B |
| EPS每股收益 | $3.91 | $2.54 | $3.06 | $3.11 | $1.92 | $3.34 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.8B | $2.2B | $2.1B | $4.4B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 31.0% | 31.3% | 31.9% | 32.5% | 33.8% | 36.9% |
| Net margin净利率 | 14.0% | 14.6% | 15.1% | 15.4% | 15.9% | 18.5% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 15.3% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 17.2% | 14.1% | 19.0% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$23.1B
Gross profit毛利润
$8.5B
Net income净利润
$4.3B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$5.4B
Total assets总资产
$36.2B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$13.4B
Dividends paid股息支出
$802M
Buybacks股票回购
$665M
Shares outstanding总股本
1.23B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
31.8%
Return on assets资产回报率
11.8%
Revenue growth营收增速
+58.4%
Profit growth利润增速
+76.2%
Asset growth资产增速
+69.0%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals near the peer median盈利质量：应计利润接近同业中位
- Working capital: inventory & receivables lean vs sales营运资本：存货与应收相对销售保持精简
- Pricing power: gross margin +5.9pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年上升 5.9 个百分点
- Capital discipline: share count +309.8% over 6 years (dilution)资本纪律：股本 6 年增加 309.8%（稀释）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 6.87 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 6.87——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
43
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
6
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
20
Average daily range平均日波幅
4.3%
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-6.7%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+1.2%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+7.2%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down动能向下
3-day3日线
momentum down — fresh downturn动能向下——刚刚转弱
Weekly周线
momentum up动能向上
Monthly月线
momentum up动能向上
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
50/100
All tracked signals全部跟踪信号
| Signal信号 | State状态 | Age距今 |
|---|---|---|
| Golden Cross (7/35) | quiet静默 | 46d |
| Golden Cross (21/100) | quiet静默 | 32d |
| Golden Cross (50/200) | quiet静默 | 434d |
| Death Cross (7/35) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Death Cross (21/100) | quiet静默 | 60d |
| Death Cross (50/200) | quiet静默 | 470d |
| MA Buy (7) | quiet静默 | 23d |
| MA Buy (21) | quiet静默 | 8d |
| MA Buy (35) | quiet静默 | 39d |
| MA Buy (100) | quiet静默 | 39d |
| MA Sell (7) | quiet静默 | 15d |
| MA Sell (21) | quiet静默 | 7d |
| MA Sell (35) | quiet静默 | 1d |
| MA Sell (100) | quiet静默 | 42d |
| Pivot Bottom | quiet静默 | 991d |
| Pivot Top | quiet静默 | 290d |
| RSI-14 Oversold Entry | quiet静默 | 71d |
| RSI-14 Overbought Entry | quiet静默 | 17d |
| RSI-21 Oversold Entry | quiet静默 | 70d |
| RSI-21 Overbought Entry | quiet静默 | 297d |
| Double Bottom (Short-term) | quiet静默 | 51d |
| Double Bottom (Long-term) | quiet静默 | 35d |
| Double Top (Short-term) | quiet静默 | 42d |
| Double Top (Long-term) | quiet静默 | 472d |
| Bollinger Breakout Up | quiet静默 | 17d |
| Bollinger Breakout Down | quiet静默 | 70d |
| Short-term Rising Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Short-term Falling Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Long-term Rising Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Long-term Falling Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Possible Runner (Momentum Breakout) | quiet静默 | 171d |
| 1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Strong 1-Day Move Flag | quiet静默 | — |
| Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Undervalued — composite multiples in cheapest decile vs universe | quiet静默 | — |
| Overvalued — composite multiples in most expensive decile vs universe | quiet静默 | — |
| Insider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutral | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Insider Buy signal — fires when Insider Power ≥ 60 (net buying on quality-weighted basis) | quiet静默 | — |
| Insider Sell signal — fires when Insider Power ≤ 40 (net selling on quality-weighted basis) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Ichimoku — Price Above Cloud | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Ichimoku — Price Below Cloud | quiet静默 | — |
| Ichimoku — Bullish TK Cross (Tenkan crosses above Kijun) | quiet静默 | 44d |
| Ichimoku — Bearish TK Cross (Tenkan crosses below Kijun) | quiet静默 | 1d |
| Ichimoku — Cloud Breakout Up (Price crosses above Kumo) | quiet静默 | 39d |
| Ichimoku — Cloud Breakdown (Price crosses below Kumo) | quiet静默 | 70d |
| Trend Ribbon — Uptrend State | quiet静默 | — |
| Trend Ribbon — Downtrend State | quiet静默 | — |
| Trend Ribbon — Flip to Uptrend | quiet静默 | 45d |
| Trend Ribbon — Flip to Downtrend | quiet静默 | 67d |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three Curling Up | quiet静默 | 3d |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three Curling Down | quiet静默 | 2d |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three at or Below 30 | quiet静默 | — |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three at or Above 80 (reference band) | quiet静默 | — |
| Bollinger Upper Band Rejection (Wick above, Close below) | quiet静默 | 25d |
| Bollinger Lower Band Reclaim (Wick below, Close above) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Bollinger Band Walk Up (Close above upper band ≥ 3 of last 5 bars) | quiet静默 | — |
| Bollinger Band Walk Down (Close below lower band ≥ 3 of last 5 bars) | quiet静默 | — |
| MACD bullish cross | quiet静默 | 52d |
| MACD bearish cross | quiet静默 | 10d |
| RSI crosses above 50 | quiet静默 | 3d |
| RSI crosses below 50 | quiet静默 | 2d |
| Stochastic-RSI bullish cross | quiet静默 | 1d |
| Stochastic-RSI bearish cross | quiet静默 | 15d |
| Bi-weekly Stochastic-RSI bullish cross | quiet静默 | 25d |
| Golden Star (7/35) — three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 147d |
| Golden Star (21/100) — three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 78d |
| Golden Star (50/200) — three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 2928d |
| Death Star (7/35) — bearish three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 527d |
| Death Star (21/100) — bearish three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 5334d |
| Death Star (50/200) — bearish three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | — |
| New Golden Star — freshly fired Golden Star (7/35), age ≤ 1 trading day | quiet静默 | 144d |
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
4
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+12.8%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+4
Analyst view分析师观点
Forward P/E预测市盈率
25.8×
Profit margin净利率
17.2%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$165
Put wall看跌期权墙
$145
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$132
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$165
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$120
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
+12.3%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
1%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-4.2%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
-0.1pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egerton Capital | C | Trimming减持 | 4.0% | $363M |
| Lone Pine Capital | B | Trimming减持 | 0.2% | $28M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
2
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
0 : 2
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 9, 'holders_first': 3, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -3, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2024-06-30', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2024-08-14', 'holders_series': [3, 1, 0, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 0]}{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 9, 'holders_first': 3, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -3, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2024-06-30', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2024-08-14', 'holders_series': [3, 1, 0, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 0]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$311.5M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
1 : 8
Short interest空头占流通盘
1.3%
Days to cover回补天数
1.6
Short interest change空头变化
-7.2%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
Invesco Aerospace & DefenseInvesco Aerospace & Defense
accumulating持续增持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Nov · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Sep · 20%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 80% | +3.4% | 5 |
| Feb2月 | 40% | -2.7% | 5 |
| Mar3月 | 40% | -0.2% | 5 |
| Apr4月 | 60% | +4.8% | 5 |
| May5月 | 83% | +2.3% | 6 |
| Jun6月 | 83% | +9.6% | 6 |
| Jul7月 | 67% | +5.9% | 6 |
| Aug8月 | 80% | +2.4% | 5 |
| Sep9月 | 20% | -4.2% | 5 |
| Oct10月 | 80% | +4.9% | 5 |
| Nov11月 | 100% | +6.4% | 5 |
| Dec12月 | 40% | -3.5% | 5 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
- Jul: +2.6% avg, up 66% of years (n=35)7月：平均 +2.6%，66% 的年份上涨（n=35）
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。