Stocks股票 / Tech / IBM
IBM · Tech
IBM US listed · USD美股 · 美元
International Business Machines Corporation, doing business as IBM, is an American multinational technology company headquartered in Armonk, New York, and present in over 175 countries. It is a publicly traded company and one of the 30 companies in the Dow...国际商业机器公司（以IBM名义经营）是一家总部位于纽约州阿蒙克市、业务覆盖超过175个国家的美国跨国科技公司。该公司为上市公司，也是道琼斯工业平均指数30支成分股之一。
Large cap大盘 · $200B
Mixed profile混合特征
Tech
Dow 30道琼斯30S&P 500标普500
$213.00
+$0.33 · +0.16%
52w low52周低 $204high高 $332
Hold off — timing against you暂缓 — 时机不利
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-07-21
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
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Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-07-21RSI-14 Oversold EntryIchimoku — Price Below Cloud
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
32
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-18.5% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-21.4% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
29
Trending趋势中
Volatility波动率
99th percentile第99百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-07-222days to go天后公布
Estimates roughly stable预期基本稳定
Valuation估值
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜| Multiple指标 | IBM | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 18.84x | 40.25 | |
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 16.3x | — | — |
| P/B市净率 | 6.11x | 5.91 | |
| P/S市销率 | 2.96x | 4.85 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 5.31% | 2.18 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 6.06% | 3.07 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 3.13% | 2.14 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 16.49x | 29.15 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -1.7%
Earnings per share每股收益
5-yr growth5年复合增速 12.4%
Free cash flow自由现金流
Gross margin毛利率
58.2%
Net margin净利率
15.7%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
19.5%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 6/9
Bankruptcy risk: grey zone破产风险：灰色区
Return on equity股本回报率 32%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Current ratio流动比率0.96
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$1.7B
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+1.2%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
AI Software & Platforms theme — #11 of 46 themes「AI 软件与平台」主题 — 46 个主题中第 11 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed +14.5%空头仓位变动 +14.5%
Technical技术面
IBM weekly MACD crossed downIBM 周线MACD下穿
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±3.02%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±6.75%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$225
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
4.3%
Flow:资金流向： $90M premium traded; 47% 0DTE; 73 fresh positions; P/C 0.59; net new CALL positioning (bullish lean) (ΔOI +102,460); ~leans bearish (direction approx)成交权利金 $90M；0DTE占47%；73个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.59；净新增看涨持仓（偏多）（ΔOI +102,460）；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: greed偏斜：贪婪
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： +$0.4M net (3 buyers, 0 sellers)+$0.4M 净值（3 买家，0 卖家）
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
BOTTOMING → DOWNTREND筑底中 → 下跌趋势
AVOID. Failed cycle — price broke below the low that started this cycle, which historically means the larger trend is rolling over (~80% of cases)回避。失败周期——价格跌破了启动本周期的低点，历史上这通常意味着更大的趋势正在掉头向下（约 80% 的情形）
Jul 24, 2026
IBM weekly MACD crossed downIBM 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 15, 2026
IBM made a new 52-week lowIBM 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $211.20.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$211.20。
Jul 15, 2026
IBM RSI reached oversoldIBM RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $211.20.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$211.20。
Jul 14, 2026
IBM lost its 200-day averageIBM 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $217.07.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$217.07。
Jul 14, 2026
IBM broke down vs the marketIBM 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $217.07.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$217.07。
Jul 14, 2026
IBM daily MACD crossed downIBM 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $217.07.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$217.07。
Jul 13, 2026
NEARING A LOW → BOTTOMING接近低点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 10, 2026
UPTREND → NEARING A LOW上涨趋势 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jul 9, 2026
BUY ZONE → UPTREND买入区 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 6, 2026
BOTTOMING → BUY ZONE筑底中 → 买入区
BUY买入
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 4907 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
International Business Machines Corporation, doing business as IBM, is an American multinational technology company headquartered in Armonk, New York, and present in over 175 countries. It is a publicly traded company and one of the 30 companies in the Dow...国际商业机器公司（以IBM名义经营）是一家总部位于纽约州阿蒙克市、业务覆盖超过175个国家的美国跨国科技公司。该公司为上市公司，也是道琼斯工业平均指数30支成分股之一。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Above market高于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Receivables stretch
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 18.8× | 40.2× | 79% |
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 16.3× | — | — |
| Price / Book市净率 | 6.1× | 5.9× | 48% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 3.0× | 4.8× | 68% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 5.3% | 2.2% | 82% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 6.6% | 4.2% | 71% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 3.1% | 2.1% | 65% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
30/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
16/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
11/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
15/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#107 / 184
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -26.6% | -0.9% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -14.5% | -0.6% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -16.1% | +5.4% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -27.5% | +8.6% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -26.0% | +8.9% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -23.6% | +19.2% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +68.9% | +69.9% |
| 5 Years近5年 | +91.7% | +82.2% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
0.86
Volatility rank波动率分位
99th pctile
Short interest空头占比
3.7% of float
Market cap市值
$200B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$11.31
Dividend yield股息率
3.18%
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-35.3%
Volume vs normal成交量相对平常
0.7×
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $73.6B | $57.4B | $60.5B | $61.9B | $62.8B | $67.5B |
| EPS每股收益 | $6.23 | $6.35 | $1.80 | $8.14 | $6.43 | $11.17 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $15.6B | $10.7B | $9.1B | $12.7B | $12.4B | $12.1B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 48.3% | 54.9% | 54.0% | 55.4% | 56.7% | 58.2% |
| Net margin净利率 | 7.6% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 15.7% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 21.2% | 18.7% | 15.0% | 20.5% | 19.8% | 17.9% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$67.5B
Gross profit毛利润
$39.3B
Net income净利润
$10.6B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$13.2B
Total assets总资产
$151.9B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$32.6B
Long-term debt长期负债
$54.8B
Dividends paid股息支出
$6.3B
Shares outstanding总股本
0.94B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
32.4%
Return on assets资产回报率
7.0%
Debt / assets负债/资产
36.1%
Revenue growth营收增速
+9.5%
Profit growth利润增速
+75.9%
Asset growth资产增速
+10.7%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 6 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 6 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Working capital: working capital roughly in line with sales营运资本：营运资本与销售大致同步
- Pricing power: gross margin +9.9pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年上升 9.9 个百分点
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 2.87 — grey zone资产负债表：Altman Z 2.87——灰色区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
32
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
22
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
29
Average daily range平均日波幅
7.2%
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-19.6%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-18.5%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-21.4%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down动能向下
3-day3日线
momentum down — fresh downturn动能向下——刚刚转弱
Weekly周线
momentum down — fresh downturn动能向下——刚刚转弱
Monthly月线
momentum down动能向下
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
expanding — range opening up扩张中 — 波幅放大
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
97/100
All tracked signals全部跟踪信号
| Signal信号 | State状态 | Age距今 |
|---|---|---|
| Golden Cross (7/35) | quiet静默 | 52d |
| Golden Cross (21/100) | quiet静默 | 39d |
| Golden Cross (50/200) | quiet静默 | 1092d |
| Death Cross (7/35) | quiet静默 | 2d |
| Death Cross (21/100) | quiet静默 | 155d |
| Death Cross (50/200) | quiet静默 | 126d |
| MA Buy (7) | quiet静默 | 21d |
| MA Buy (21) | quiet静默 | 17d |
| MA Buy (35) | quiet静默 | 24d |
| MA Buy (100) | quiet静默 | 24d |
| MA Sell (7) | quiet静默 | 7d |
| MA Sell (21) | quiet静默 | 3d |
| MA Sell (35) | quiet静默 | 3d |
| MA Sell (100) | quiet静默 | 3d |
| Pivot Bottom | quiet静默 | 137d |
| Pivot Top | quiet静默 | 256d |
| RSI-14 Oversold Entry | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| RSI-14 Overbought Entry | quiet静默 | 10d |
| RSI-21 Oversold Entry | quiet静默 | 3d |
| RSI-21 Overbought Entry | quiet静默 | 49d |
| Double Bottom (Short-term) | quiet静默 | 171d |
| Double Bottom (Long-term) | quiet静默 | 91d |
| Double Top (Short-term) | quiet静默 | 80d |
| Double Top (Long-term) | quiet静默 | 3d |
| Bollinger Breakout Up | quiet静默 | 11d |
| Bollinger Breakout Down | quiet静默 | 3d |
| Short-term Rising Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Short-term Falling Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Long-term Rising Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Long-term Falling Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Possible Runner (Momentum Breakout) | quiet静默 | 45d |
| 1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Strong 1-Day Move Flag | quiet静默 | — |
| Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Undervalued — composite multiples in cheapest decile vs universe | quiet静默 | — |
| Overvalued — composite multiples in most expensive decile vs universe | quiet静默 | — |
| Insider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutral | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Insider Buy signal — fires when Insider Power ≥ 60 (net buying on quality-weighted basis) | quiet静默 | — |
| Insider Sell signal — fires when Insider Power ≤ 40 (net selling on quality-weighted basis) | quiet静默 | — |
| Ichimoku — Price Above Cloud | quiet静默 | — |
| Ichimoku — Price Below Cloud | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Ichimoku — Bullish TK Cross (Tenkan crosses above Kijun) | quiet静默 | 7d |
| Ichimoku — Bearish TK Cross (Tenkan crosses below Kijun) | quiet静默 | 29d |
| Ichimoku — Cloud Breakout Up (Price crosses above Kumo) | quiet静默 | 50d |
| Ichimoku — Cloud Breakdown (Price crosses below Kumo) | quiet静默 | 3d |
| Trend Ribbon — Uptrend State | quiet静默 | — |
| Trend Ribbon — Downtrend State | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Trend Ribbon — Flip to Uptrend | quiet静默 | 21d |
| Trend Ribbon — Flip to Downtrend | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three Curling Up | quiet静默 | 1d |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three Curling Down | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three at or Below 30 | quiet静默 | — |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three at or Above 80 (reference band) | quiet静默 | — |
| Bollinger Upper Band Rejection (Wick above, Close below) | quiet静默 | 51d |
| Bollinger Lower Band Reclaim (Wick below, Close above) | quiet静默 | 1d |
| Bollinger Band Walk Up (Close above upper band ≥ 3 of last 5 bars) | quiet静默 | — |
| Bollinger Band Walk Down (Close below lower band ≥ 3 of last 5 bars) | quiet静默 | — |
| MACD bullish cross | quiet静默 | 16d |
| MACD bearish cross | quiet静默 | 3d |
| RSI crosses above 50 | quiet静默 | 21d |
| RSI crosses below 50 | quiet静默 | 3d |
| Stochastic-RSI bullish cross | quiet静默 | 25d |
| Stochastic-RSI bearish cross | quiet静默 | 9d |
| Bi-weekly Stochastic-RSI bullish cross | quiet静默 | 49d |
| Golden Star (7/35) — three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 532d |
| Golden Star (21/100) — three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 1418d |
| Golden Star (50/200) — three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 7372d |
| Death Star (7/35) — bearish three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 156d |
| Death Star (21/100) — bearish three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 1583d |
| Death Star (50/200) — bearish three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 1206d |
| New Golden Star — freshly fired Golden Star (7/35), age ≤ 1 trading day | quiet静默 | 529d |
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
4
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mixed分歧
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-2.2%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+2
Analyst view分析师观点
Forward P/E预测市盈率
16.3×
Profit margin净利率
15.6%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$225
Put wall看跌期权墙
$200
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$225
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$220
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$200
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
-$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
-5.6%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
0%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
+4.3%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
-0.0pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
+$0.4M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
3 : 0
Short interest空头占流通盘
3.7%
Days to cover回补天数
3.7
Short interest change空头变化
+14.5%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
May · 83%
Weakest month最弱月份
Feb · 20%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 80% | +4.1% | 5 |
| Feb2月 | 20% | -2.8% | 5 |
| Mar3月 | 80% | +1.5% | 5 |
| Apr4月 | 20% | -3.6% | 5 |
| May5月 | 83% | +6.5% | 6 |
| Jun6月 | 83% | +3.7% | 6 |
| Jul7月 | 33% | -3.8% | 6 |
| Aug8月 | 60% | +0.8% | 5 |
| Sep9月 | 40% | -0.9% | 5 |
| Oct10月 | 60% | +3.2% | 5 |
| Nov11月 | 80% | +8.7% | 5 |
| Dec12月 | 40% | -3.2% | 5 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
- Jul: +1.2% avg, up 55% of years (n=65)7月：平均 +1.2%，55% 的年份上涨（n=65）
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。