Stocks股票 / Materials / CF
CF Industries · Materials
CF US listed · USD美股 · 美元
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is an American manufacturer and distributor of agricultural fertilizers, including ammonia, urea, and ammonium nitrate products.CF Industries Holdings, Inc. 是一家美国农业肥料制造商和经销商，产品包括氨、尿素和硝酸铵。
Large cap大盘 · $19B
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
Materials
S&P 500标普500
$123.57
+$2.15 · +1.77%
52w low52周低 $74.71high高 $141
Constructive — building a base建设性 — 正在筑底
The daily turn is already in — a low formed ~18 days ago at $102.17 and price is back above the 10-day average. What's missing is the weekly timeframe…日线转向已经完成——低点于约 18 天前形成，价位102.17，且价格已重新站上 10 日均线。尚缺的是周线周期的确认，因此这是当下可用的部分信心入场，而非待触发信号：可在此建半仓，或等待周线转向。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-07-21
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
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Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
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Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-07-21
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
66
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+7.8% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+22.4% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
22
Trending趋势中
Volatility波动率
15th percentile第15百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-08-0516days to go天后公布
Estimates being raised — 1 analysts预期上调 — 1 位分析师
Post-earnings drift: -3.8% (20d)财报后漂移：-3.8%（20日）
Valuation估值
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜| Multiple指标 | CF | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 11.0x | — | — |
| P/B市净率 | 3.92x | 2.74 | |
| P/S市销率 | 2.68x | 1.63 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 9.50% | 3.31 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 8.91% | 2.72 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 6.32x | 12.17 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 10.53x | 24.46 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 11.4%
Earnings per share每股收益
5-yr growth5年复合增速 43.6%
Free cash flow自由现金流
Gross margin毛利率
38.5%
Operating margin营业利润率
32.5%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
38.8%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 8/9
Bankruptcy risk: grey zone破产风险：灰色区
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA0.39
Current ratio流动比率3.37
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$1.4B
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$45.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-9.6%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Materials (Equal-Weight) theme — #27 of 46 themes「材料（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 27 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
UPTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN上涨趋势 → 未确认转向
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±3.05%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±6.82%
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-1.1%
Skew: balanced偏斜：balanced
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$72.2M net (0 buyers, 8 sellers)-$72.2M 净值（0 买家，8 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soros Fund Management | B | New position新建仓 | 0.1% | 2026-03-31 |
| Fairholme Capital (Berkowitz) | A | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP. A new cycle low likely formed 18 day(s) ago (2026-06-23 @ 102.17): swing low in, price back above the 10-day average — but the weekly timeframe hasn't turned yet, so conviction is partial. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell买入预备。新的周期低点可能已在 18 天前形成 （2026-06-23 @ 102.17）：摆动低点已现，价格重新站上 10 日均线——但周线周期尚未转向，因此信心仅为部分。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Jul 15, 2026
UPTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN上涨趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 13, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → UPTREND未确认转向 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 8, 2026
BOTTOMING → UNCONFIRMED TURN筑底中 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 6, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 26, 2026
CF daily MACD crossed upCF 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $105.70.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$105.70。
Jun 25, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jun 25, 2026
CF StochRSI turned up from oversoldCF StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $105.49.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$105.49。
Jun 23, 2026
CF printed a daily-cycle lowCF 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $102.17.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$102.17。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 1816 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is an American manufacturer and distributor of agricultural fertilizers, including ammonia, urea, and ammonium nitrate products.CF Industries Holdings, Inc. 是一家美国农业肥料制造商和经销商，产品包括氨、尿素和硝酸铵。
Demand chain:需求链： Contracted bookings (RPO) flat (+4% YoY to ~$2B, 0.3× revenue) — signed demand locked in ahead of recognition已签约订单（RPO）持平（同比+4%，约 $2B，覆盖营收 0.3 倍）——已锁定、尚未确认的需求
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Above market高于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Above market高于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 11.0× | — | — |
| Price / Book市净率 | 3.9× | 2.7× | 29% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 2.7× | 1.6× | 31% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 6.3× | 12.2× | 90% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 14.5% | 7.5% | 90% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 8.9% | 2.7% | 95% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
44/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
66/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
89/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
74/100 — stronger than most强于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#17 / 75
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +2.2% | -0.9% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +20.1% | -0.6% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +2.3% | +5.4% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +35.8% | +8.6% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +55.7% | +8.9% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +36.3% | +19.2% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +67.4% | +69.9% |
| 5 Years近5年 | +186.8% | +82.2% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
-0.78
Volatility rank波动率分位
15th pctile
Short interest空头占比
6.7% of float
Market cap市值
$19B
Dividend yield股息率
1.98%
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-9.8%
Volume vs normal成交量相对平常
1.0×
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $4.1B | $6.5B | $11.2B | $6.6B | $5.9B | $7.1B |
| EPS每股收益 | $1.47 | $4.24 | $16.38 | $7.87 | $6.74 | $8.97 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $922M | $2.4B | $3.4B | $2.3B | $1.8B | $1.8B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 19.4% | 36.5% | 52.4% | 38.4% | 34.6% | 38.5% |
| Net margin净利率 | 10.5% | 19.3% | 35.2% | 27.7% | 24.9% | 25.4% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 22.4% | 36.1% | 30.4% | 34.1% | 29.5% | 25.4% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$7.1B
Gross profit毛利润
$2.7B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$2.8B
Total assets总资产
$14.1B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$4.8B
Long-term debt长期负债
$3.2B
Dividends paid股息支出
$326M
Buybacks股票回购
$1.4B
Shares outstanding总股本
0.15B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Debt / assets负债/资产
22.8%
Revenue growth营收增速
+19.4%
Asset growth资产增速
+4.6%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals near the peer median盈利质量：应计利润接近同业中位
- Working capital: working capital roughly in line with sales营运资本：营运资本与销售大致同步
- Pricing power: soft gross profitability vs peers定价能力：毛利能力弱于同业
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 2.84 — grey zone资产负债表：Altman Z 2.84——灰色区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
66
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
93
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
22
Average daily range平均日波幅
3.4%
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+9.8%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+7.8%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+22.4%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
Weekly周线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
Monthly月线
momentum up动能向上
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
90/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
1
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+16.4%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+1
Analyst view分析师观点
Forward P/E预测市盈率
11.0×
Profit margin净利率
23.7%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$130
Put wall看跌期权墙
$109
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$130
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$120
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
0%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-1.1%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soros Fund Management | B | New position新建仓 | 0.1% | $8M |
| Fairholme Capital (Berkowitz) | A | Exited清仓 | 0.0% | $4M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
2
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
1 : 1
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 3, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2025-12-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2026-02-17', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 0]}{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 3, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2025-12-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2026-02-17', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 0]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$72.2M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 8
Short interest空头占流通盘
6.7%
Days to cover回补天数
3.4
Short interest change空头变化
-1.8%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Jul · 83%
Weakest month最弱月份
Apr · 20%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 40% | -0.3% | 5 |
| Feb2月 | 80% | +7.5% | 5 |
| Mar3月 | 60% | +3.3% | 5 |
| Apr4月 | 20% | -3.1% | 5 |
| May5月 | 50% | +2.1% | 6 |
| Jun6月 | 33% | -2.6% | 6 |
| Jul7月 | 83% | +11.5% | 6 |
| Aug8月 | 40% | -2.8% | 5 |
| Sep9月 | 80% | +3.8% | 5 |
| Oct10月 | 40% | -4.1% | 5 |
| Nov11月 | 60% | +3.3% | 5 |
| Dec12月 | 40% | -1.5% | 5 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
- Jul: +6.5% avg, up 86% of years (n=21)7月：平均 +6.5%，86% 的年份上涨（n=21）
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。