Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Materials / CF
CF Industries · Materials
CF US listed · USD美股 · 美元
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is an American manufacturer and distributor of agricultural fertilizers, including ammonia, urea, and ammonium nitrate products.CF Industries Holdings, Inc. 是一家美国农业肥料制造商和经销商，产品包括氨、尿素和硝酸铵。
Large cap大盘 · $18B
Materials
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
$117.05
-$2.96 · -2.47%
52w low52周低 $74.71high高 $141
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 114.35.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 114.35 下方。
Live实时
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
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Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
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Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-14Death Cross (7/35)MA Sell (7)MA Sell (35)MA Sell (100)
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
47
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+1.9% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+12.4% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
18
No clear trend无明显趋势
Volatility波动率
75th percentile第75百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being cut预期下调
Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期
Post-earnings drift: -3.8% (20d)财报后漂移：-3.8%（20日）
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 11.4%
Valuation估值
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜| Multiple指标 | CF | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 11.2x | — | — |
| P/B市净率 | 3.72x | 2.82 | |
| P/S市销率 | 2.54x | 1.61 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 10.03% | 3.14 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 9.41% | 2.33 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 6.01x | 13.91 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 9.97x | 26.46 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$7.1B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 11.4%
Earnings per share每股收益
$8.972025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 43.6%
Free cash flow自由现金流
$1.8B2025
20202025
Gross margin毛利率
38.5%
Operating margin营业利润率
32.5%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
38.8%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 8/9
Bankruptcy risk: grey zone破产风险：灰色区
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA0.39
Current ratio流动比率3.37
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$1.4B
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$45.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-9.6%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Materials (Equal-Weight) theme — #34 of 49 themes「材料（等权）」主题 — 49 个主题中第 34 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed -13.4%空头仓位变动 -13.4%
Technical技术面
CF StochRSI turned up from oversoldCF StochRSI自超卖区上行
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.20%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±4.91%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$114
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-4.0%
Skew: balanced偏斜：balanced
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$72.2M net (0 buyers, 8 sellers)-$72.2M 净值（0 买家，8 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soros Fund Management | B | New position新建仓 | 0.1% | 2026-03-31 |
| Fairholme Capital (Berkowitz) | A | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
NEARING A HIGH → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近高点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum negative; 3-day crossed down; last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量为负；3 日线向下交叉；上一周期左移（见顶偏早））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Aug 11, 2026
CF StochRSI turned up from oversoldCF StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $117.80.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$117.80。
Aug 3, 2026
BOTTOMING → UNCONFIRMED TURN筑底中 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Aug 3, 2026
CF daily MACD crossed downCF 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $118.30.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$118.30。
Jul 31, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 30, 2026
BUY ZONE → NEARING A HIGH买入区 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 24, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 22, 2026
CF RSI reached overboughtCF RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $127.35.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$127.35。
Jul 21, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 1825 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is an American manufacturer and distributor of agricultural fertilizers, including ammonia, urea, and ammonium nitrate products.CF Industries Holdings, Inc. 是一家美国农业肥料制造商和经销商，产品包括氨、尿素和硝酸铵。
Demand chain:需求链： Contracted bookings (RPO) flat (+4% YoY to ~$2B, 0.3× revenue) — signed demand locked in ahead of recognition已签约订单（RPO）持平（同比+4%，约 $2B，覆盖营收 0.3 倍）——已锁定、尚未确认的需求
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Above market高于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Above market高于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (forward)市盈率（预测） | 11.2× | — | — |
| Price / Book市净率 | 3.7× | 2.8× | 32% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 2.5× | 1.6× | 31% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 6.0× | 13.9× | 92% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 15.3% | 6.7% | 92% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 9.4% | 2.3% | 97% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
62/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
18/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
76/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
74/100 — stronger than most强于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#15 / 107
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +0.3% | +1.2% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -1.8% | +3.5% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -6.5% | +5.2% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +24.2% | +14.4% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +47.5% | +14.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +38.3% | +21.6% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +59.8% | +79.7% |
| 5 Years近5年 | +167.3% | +86.2% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
-0.89
Volatility rank波动率分位
75th pctile
Short interest空头占比
5.2% of float
Market cap市值
$18B
Dividend yield股息率
2.00%
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-14.6%
Volume vs normal成交量相对平常
0.7×
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $4.1B | $6.5B | $11.2B | $6.6B | $5.9B | $7.1B |
| EPS每股收益 | $1.47 | $4.24 | $16.38 | $7.87 | $6.74 | $8.97 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $922M | $2.4B | $3.4B | $2.3B | $1.8B | $1.8B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 19.4% | 36.5% | 52.4% | 38.4% | 34.6% | 38.5% |
| Net margin净利率 | 10.5% | 19.3% | 35.2% | 27.7% | 24.9% | 25.4% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 22.4% | 36.1% | 30.4% | 34.1% | 29.5% | 25.4% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$7.1B
Gross profit毛利润
$2.7B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$2.8B
Total assets总资产
$14.1B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$4.8B
Long-term debt长期负债
$3.2B
Dividends paid股息支出
$326M
Buybacks股票回购
$1.4B
Shares outstanding总股本
0.15B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Debt / assets负债/资产
22.8%
Revenue growth营收增速
+17.6%
Asset growth资产增速
+4.6%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals near the peer median盈利质量：应计利润接近同业中位
- Working capital: working capital roughly in line with sales营运资本：营运资本与销售大致同步
- Pricing power: soft gross profitability vs peers定价能力：毛利能力弱于同业
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 2.77 — grey zone资产负债表：Altman Z 2.77——灰色区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
47
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
33
Trend strength (ADX)趋势强度（ADX）
18
Average daily range平均日波幅
4.1%
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-3.6%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+1.9%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+12.4%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down动能向下
3-day3日线
momentum down — fresh downturn动能向下——刚刚转弱
Weekly周线
momentum down动能向下
Monthly月线
momentum up动能向上
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
48/100
All tracked signals全部跟踪信号
| Signal信号 | State状态 | Age距今 |
|---|---|---|
| Golden Cross (7/35) | quiet静默 | 35d |
| Golden Cross (21/100) | quiet静默 | 14d |
| Golden Cross (50/200) | quiet静默 | 169d |
| Death Cross (7/35) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Death Cross (21/100) | quiet静默 | 56d |
| Death Cross (50/200) | quiet静默 | 252d |
| MA Buy (7) | quiet静默 | 3d |
| MA Buy (21) | quiet静默 | 3d |
| MA Buy (35) | quiet静默 | 3d |
| MA Buy (100) | quiet静默 | 1d |
| MA Sell (7) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| MA Sell (21) | quiet静默 | 2d |
| MA Sell (35) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| MA Sell (100) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Pivot Bottom | quiet静默 | 520d |
| Pivot Top | quiet静默 | 147d |
| RSI-14 Oversold Entry | quiet静默 | 59d |
| RSI-14 Overbought Entry | quiet静默 | 22d |
| RSI-21 Oversold Entry | quiet静默 | 59d |
| RSI-21 Overbought Entry | quiet静默 | 140d |
| Double Bottom (Short-term) | quiet静默 | 69d |
| Double Bottom (Long-term) | quiet静默 | 185d |
| Double Top (Short-term) | quiet静默 | 8d |
| Double Top (Long-term) | quiet静默 | 168d |
| Bollinger Breakout Up | quiet静默 | 31d |
| Bollinger Breakout Down | quiet静默 | 76d |
| Short-term Rising Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Short-term Falling Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Long-term Rising Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Long-term Falling Trend | quiet静默 | — |
| Possible Runner (Momentum Breakout) | quiet静默 | 153d |
| 1-Day Return (cross-sectional rank → top/bottom gainers) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Strong 1-Day Move Flag | quiet静默 | — |
| Valuation cheapness percentile (0–1, higher = cheaper vs peers) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Undervalued — composite multiples in cheapest decile vs universe | quiet静默 | — |
| Overvalued — composite multiples in most expensive decile vs universe | quiet静默 | — |
| Insider Power (0–100) — quality-weighted Form-4 open-market trades (role × size × recency); 50 = neutral | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Insider Buy signal — fires when Insider Power ≥ 60 (net buying on quality-weighted basis) | quiet静默 | — |
| Insider Sell signal — fires when Insider Power ≤ 40 (net selling on quality-weighted basis) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Ichimoku — Price Above Cloud | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Ichimoku — Price Below Cloud | quiet静默 | — |
| Ichimoku — Bullish TK Cross (Tenkan crosses above Kijun) | quiet静默 | 35d |
| Ichimoku — Bearish TK Cross (Tenkan crosses below Kijun) | quiet静默 | 7d |
| Ichimoku — Cloud Breakout Up (Price crosses above Kumo) | quiet静默 | 3d |
| Ichimoku — Cloud Breakdown (Price crosses below Kumo) | quiet静默 | 29d |
| Trend Ribbon — Uptrend State | quiet静默 | — |
| Trend Ribbon — Downtrend State | quiet静默 | — |
| Trend Ribbon — Flip to Uptrend | quiet静默 | 3d |
| Trend Ribbon — Flip to Downtrend | quiet静默 | 69d |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three Curling Up | quiet静默 | 1d |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three Curling Down | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three at or Below 30 | quiet静默 | — |
| RSI Stack (7/14/21) — All Three at or Above 80 (reference band) | quiet静默 | — |
| Bollinger Upper Band Rejection (Wick above, Close below) | quiet静默 | 21d |
| Bollinger Lower Band Reclaim (Wick below, Close above) | quiet静默 | 6d |
| Bollinger Band Walk Up (Close above upper band ≥ 3 of last 5 bars) | quiet静默 | — |
| Bollinger Band Walk Down (Close below lower band ≥ 3 of last 5 bars) | quiet静默 | — |
| MACD bullish cross | quiet静默 | 48d |
| MACD bearish cross | quiet静默 | 10d |
| RSI crosses above 50 | quiet静默 | 1d |
| RSI crosses below 50 | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Stochastic-RSI bullish cross | quiet静默 | 6d |
| Stochastic-RSI bearish cross | quiet静默 | 21d |
| Bi-weekly Stochastic-RSI bullish cross | quiet静默 | 13d |
| Bi-weekly Stochastic-RSI bearish cross | quiet静默 | 125d |
| Directional Indicator Bullish Cross (+DI above -DI) | quiet静默 | 42d |
| Directional Indicator Bearish Cross (-DI above +DI) | quiet静默 | 10d |
| ADX Trend Ignition — Bullish (ADX crosses above 25 while price rising) | quiet静默 | 198d |
| ADX Trend Ignition — Bearish (ADX crosses above 25 while price falling) | quiet静默 | 258d |
| ADX Trending (ADX ≥ 25 and rising — strong, accelerating trend) | quiet静默 | — |
| ADX Weak Trend (ADX < 20 — market ranging, no directional conviction) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Aroon Bullish Cross (recent highs dominating — uptrend beginning) | quiet静默 | 31d |
| Aroon Bearish Cross (recent lows dominating — downtrend beginning) | quiet静默 | 3d |
| Aroon Strong Uptrend (recent highs near current bar, lows far away) | quiet静默 | — |
| Aroon Strong Downtrend (recent lows near current bar, highs far away) | quiet静默 | — |
| Vortex Bullish Cross (VI+ above VI- with separation — upward momentum) | quiet静默 | 38d |
| Vortex Bearish Cross (VI- above VI+ with separation — downward momentum) | quiet静默 | 76d |
| Elder Ray Bullish Setup (bear power negative but improving, price trend up) | quiet静默 | 16d |
| Elder Ray Bearish Setup (bull power positive but falling, price trend down) | quiet静默 | 1d |
| Elder Ray Bulls Dominant (bull power positive, bear power near zero) | quiet静默 | — |
| Elder Ray Bears Dominant (bear power negative, bull power near zero) | quiet静默 | — |
| Volatility Squeeze Active (Bollinger inside Keltner) | quiet静默 | — |
| Squeeze Release — Upside Breakout | quiet静默 | 36d |
| Squeeze Release — Downside Breakout | quiet静默 | 76d |
| Trending Market Regime (Choppiness below 38.2) | quiet静默 | — |
| Ranging Market Regime (Choppiness above 61.8) | quiet静默 | — |
| Trend Onset (Choppiness drops below 38.2) | quiet静默 | 31d |
| Trending Regime by Efficiency (VHF above median) | quiet静默 | — |
| Donchian Channel Upside Breakout (20-day high exceeded) | quiet静默 | 22d |
| Donchian Channel Downside Breakdown (20-day low breached) | quiet静默 | 65d |
| Failed Upside Breakout (Price retreats below channel within 5 bars) | quiet静默 | 20d |
| Failed Downside Breakdown (Price recovers above channel within 5 bars) | quiet静默 | 62d |
| Wide Channel (Donchian width in top 20% of trailing year) | quiet静默 | — |
| NR7 Coiling Pattern Active (Narrowest range in 7 bars, within last 3) | quiet静默 | — |
| Upside Range Expansion (True range > 2×ATR, strong close) | quiet静默 | 154d |
| Downside Range Expansion (True range > 2×ATR, weak close) | quiet静默 | 157d |
| Money Flow turns positive (CMF crosses above zero) | quiet静默 | 7d |
| Money Flow turns negative (CMF crosses below zero) | quiet静默 | 9d |
| Sustained buying pressure (CMF above +0.05 for 10+ bars) | quiet静默 | — |
| Sustained selling pressure (CMF below -0.05 for 10+ bars) | quiet静默 | — |
| Volume backing the move up (OBV rising over 20 days) | quiet静默 | — |
| Volume backing the move down (OBV falling over 20 days) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| OBV breaks to new 60-day high (accumulation surge) | quiet静默 | 154d |
| OBV breaks to new 60-day low (distribution surge) | quiet静默 | 56d |
| Volume surge (relative volume doubles its 20-day average) | quiet静默 | 146d |
| Volume drying up (5-day average below 60% of normal) | quiet静默 | — |
| Oversold money flow recovering (MFI crosses back above 20) | quiet静默 | 651d |
| Overbought money flow retreating (MFI crosses back below 80) | quiet静默 | 20d |
| Money flow momentum turns bullish (MFI crosses above 50) | quiet静默 | 42d |
| Money flow momentum turns bearish (MFI crosses below 50) | quiet静默 | 7d |
| Price crosses above adaptive moving average in trending market | quiet静默 | 70d |
| Price crosses below adaptive moving average in trending market | quiet静默 | 69d |
| Adaptive moving average rising in trending market | quiet静默 | — |
| Adaptive moving average falling in trending market | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Market moving efficiently — trend-following conditions present | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Market choppy — trend signals unreliable | quiet静默 | — |
| Trend turns bullish — price breaks above resistance band | quiet静默 | 37d |
| Trend turns bearish — price breaks below support band | quiet静默 | 6d |
| Price above trend support — bullish regime | quiet静默 | — |
| Price below trend resistance — bearish regime | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Price pulls back to trend support then recovers — continuation setup | quiet静默 | 7d |
| Connors RSI deep oversold arrival (crosses below 10) | quiet静默 | 371d |
| Connors RSI oversold exit (crosses back above 10) | quiet静默 | 367d |
| Connors RSI overbought exit (crosses back below 90) | quiet静默 | 153d |
| Spearman trend turns positive (smoothed rank correlation crosses above zero) | quiet静默 | 43d |
| Spearman trend turns negative (smoothed rank correlation crosses below zero) | quiet静默 | 9d |
| Spearman strong uptrend (raw rank correlation above 80) | quiet静默 | — |
| Spearman strong downtrend (raw rank correlation below -80) | quiet静默 | — |
| Low Drawdown Stress (Ulcer Index below 25th percentile) | quiet静默 | — |
| Elevated Drawdown Stress (Ulcer Index above 75th percentile) | quiet静默 | — |
| Drawdown Stress Spike (Ulcer Index doubles in 21 bars, above 5) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Drawdown Stress Easing (Ulcer Index crosses below median after stress period) | quiet静默 | 31d |
| Low Relative Volatility (nATR below 25th percentile) | quiet静默 | — |
| High Relative Volatility (nATR above 75th percentile) | quiet静默 | — |
| Volatility Compression (short-window vol well below long-window vol) | quiet静默 | — |
| Volatility Expansion Breakout (short-window vol crosses above long-window vol) | quiet静默 | 94d |
| Mass Index Bulge Reversal (range expansion then contraction setup) | quiet静默 | 121d |
| 12-1 Momentum Positive (medium-term uptrend, reversal-adjusted) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| 12-1 Momentum Negative (medium-term downtrend, reversal-adjusted) | quiet静默 | — |
| Momentum Acceleration Up (3-month crosses above 6-month, both improving) | quiet静默 | 175d |
| Momentum Deceleration Down (3-month crosses below 6-month, both weakening) | quiet静默 | 118d |
| New 52-Week Closing High | quiet静默 | 136d |
| New 52-Week Closing Low | quiet静默 | 1169d |
| Relative Strength Recovery (stock outpaces benchmark over 3 months) | quiet静默 | — |
| Relative Strength Deterioration (stock falls behind benchmark over 3 months) | quiet静默 | — |
| Relative Strength at 6-Month High (stock/benchmark ratio at new peak) | quiet静默 | — |
| Relative Strength at 6-Month Low (stock/benchmark ratio at new trough) | quiet静默 | — |
| BBTrend Crosses Above Zero (channel expanding in favor of buyers) | quiet静默 | 21d |
| BBTrend Crosses Below Zero (channel expanding in favor of sellers) | quiet静默 | 59d |
| Inside Bar — price range compressed within prior bar | quiet静默 | — |
| Outside Bar — price range expands beyond prior bar on both sides | quiet静默 | — |
| Outside-Inside Bar Coil — outside bar followed by inside bar compression | quiet静默 | 62d |
| Three Consecutive Inside Bars — prolonged compression coil | quiet静默 | 3157d |
| Bullish 2-1-2 Continuation — higher high bar, inside bar, upside break | quiet静默 | 128d |
| Bearish 2-1-2 Continuation — lower low bar, inside bar, downside break | quiet静默 | 7d |
| Bullish 2-1-2 Reversal — lower low bar, inside bar, upside break | quiet静默 | 3d |
| Bearish 2-1-2 Reversal — higher high bar, inside bar, downside break | quiet静默 | 1d |
| Bullish 3-1-2 — outside bar, inside bar coil, upside break | quiet静默 | 426d |
| Bearish 3-1-2 — outside bar, inside bar coil, downside break | quiet静默 | 59d |
| Fractal Low Confirmed (swing low locked in) | quiet静默 | 3d |
| Fractal High Confirmed (swing high locked in) | quiet静默 | 1d |
| Swing Uptrend (higher highs and higher lows) | quiet静默 | — |
| Swing Downtrend (lower lows and lower highs) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Fractal High Break (close rises above confirmed swing high) | quiet静默 | 24d |
| Fractal Low Break (close falls below confirmed swing low) | quiet静默 | 10d |
| KST crosses above signal line (negative territory) | quiet静默 | 43d |
| KST crosses below signal line (positive territory) | quiet静默 | 9d |
| True Strength Index crosses above signal (below zero) | quiet静默 | 43d |
| True Strength Index crosses below signal (above zero) | quiet静默 | 10d |
| Coppock curve turns up from a trough (below zero) | quiet静默 | 972d |
| Ultimate Oscillator exits oversold zone (crosses above 30) | quiet静默 | 764d |
| Ultimate Oscillator exits overbought zone (crosses below 70) | quiet静默 | 434d |
| Fisher Transform crosses above prior bar (below -1) | quiet静默 | 3d |
| Fisher Transform crosses below prior bar (above +1) | quiet静默 | 20d |
| QQE smoothed RSI crosses above adaptive band (below 50) | quiet静默 | 44d |
| QQE smoothed RSI crosses below adaptive band (above 50) | quiet静默 | 16d |
| Schaff Trend Cycle crosses above 25 (bullish turn) | quiet静默 | 44d |
| Schaff Trend Cycle crosses below 75 (bearish turn) | quiet静默 | 10d |
| Bullish price gap forms (3-candle imbalance zone) | quiet静默 | 2d |
| Bearish price gap forms (3-candle imbalance zone) | quiet静默 | 9d |
| Bullish gap zone filled (price returns to imbalance area) | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| Bearish gap zone filled (price returns to imbalance area) | quiet静默 | 3d |
| Price reclaims AVWAP from earnings-proxy anchor (quarter's top-volume session) | quiet静默 | 36d |
| Price loses AVWAP from earnings-proxy anchor (quarter's top-volume session) | quiet静默 | 85d |
| Close above week-anchored VWAP | quiet静默 | — |
| Close below week-anchored VWAP | ● active● 活跃 | 0d |
| POC retest holds (price defends the point of control) | quiet静默 | 14d |
| POC retest fails (rejected at the point of control) | quiet静默 | 16d |
| Golden Star (7/35) — three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 85d |
| Golden Star (21/100) — three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 4984d |
| Golden Star (50/200) — three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | — |
| Death Star (7/35) — bearish three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 1262d |
| Death Star (21/100) — bearish three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | — |
| Death Star (50/200) — bearish three-entity cross with price gate | quiet静默 | 799d |
| New Golden Star — freshly fired Golden Star (7/35), age ≤ 1 trading day | quiet静默 | 84d |
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $2.89 | $2.43 | +18.9% |
| Dec 2025 | $2.99 | $2.50 | +19.6% |
| Sep 2025 | $2.19 | $2.06 | +6.3% |
| Jun 2025 | $2.37 | $2.35 | +0.8% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
2
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-5.9%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+0
Analyst view分析师观点
Forward P/E预测市盈率
11.2×
Profit margin净利率
27.1%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$130
Put wall看跌期权墙
$110
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$114
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$120
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$115
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
+2.9%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
0%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-4.0%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soros Fund Management | B | New position新建仓 | 0.1% | $8M |
| Fairholme Capital (Berkowitz) | A | Exited清仓 | 0.0% | $4M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
2
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
1 : 1
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 2, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 1, 'holders_delta': 0, 'value_change_pct': 77.5, 'from_period': '2025-12-31', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-16', 'available_on_first': '2026-02-18', 'holders_series': [1, 1]}{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 2, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 1, 'holders_delta': 0, 'value_change_pct': 77.5, 'from_period': '2025-12-31', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-16', 'available_on_first': '2026-02-18', 'holders_series': [1, 1]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$72.2M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 8
Short interest空头占流通盘
5.2%
Days to cover回补天数
3.7
Short interest change空头变化
-13.4%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Jul · 83%
Weakest month最弱月份
Apr · 20%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 40% | -0.3% | 5 |
| Feb2月 | 80% | +7.5% | 5 |
| Mar3月 | 60% | +3.3% | 5 |
| Apr4月 | 20% | -3.1% | 5 |
| May5月 | 60% | +2.1% | 5 |
| Jun6月 | 33% | -3.3% | 6 |
| Jul7月 | 83% | +11.5% | 6 |
| Aug8月 | 33% | -2.8% | 6 |
| Sep9月 | 80% | +3.8% | 5 |
| Oct10月 | 40% | -4.1% | 5 |
| Nov11月 | 60% | +3.3% | 5 |
| Dec12月 | 40% | -1.5% | 5 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
- Aug: +3.1% avg, up 52% of years (n=21)8月：平均 +3.1%，52% 的年份上涨（n=21）
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。