Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Industrials / GEO
GEO Group, Inc. · Industrials
GEO US listed · USD美股 · 美元
The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) is an American publicly traded C corporation private prison and mental health facility operator.GEO集团公司（GEO）是一家美国公开交易的C类股份公司，运营私营监狱和精神健康治疗机构。
Mid cap中盘 · $4B
Industrials
S&P 600标普600小盘Russell 2000罗素2000
Cyclical周期股
$30.37
-$1.08 · -3.43%
52w low52周低 $12.70high高 $32.21
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤
The bottoming setup is not yet confirmed (price still below the 10-day average) and the 3-day/weekly momentum has crossed down — momentum is fading before the…筑底形态尚未确认（价格仍位于 10 日均线下方），且3 日/周线动量已向下交叉——动量在形态完成前已开始衰竭。等待价格收复 10 日均线且动量趋于稳定后再考虑建仓。
Live实时
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
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Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
50
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+2.5% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+49.6% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
21th percentile第21百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being cut预期下调
Beat in 3 of last 4 quarters近 4 季中 3 季超预期
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 25.9%
Valuation估值
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜| Multiple指标 | GEO | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 16.27x | 30.23 | |
| P/B市净率 | 2.75x | 4.41 | |
| P/S市销率 | 1.57x | 2.24 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 6.15% | 3.11 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | -3.02% | 3.73 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 2.20% | 2.22 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 14.68x | 16.47 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$2.6B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 2.3%
Earnings per share每股收益
$1.822025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 14.1%
Free cash flow自由现金流
-$124.9M2025
20202025
Operating margin营业利润率
9.8%
Net margin净利率
9.7%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
2.8%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 7/8
Bankruptcy risk: grey zone破产风险：灰色区
Return on equity股本回报率 17%
Watch关注
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA4.06
Current ratio流动比率2.01
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$91.0M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$23.6M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-2.8%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$0.1M net (0 buyers, 1 sellers)-$0.1M 净值（0 买家，1 卖家）
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP. Buyers rejected the 2026-07-17 low (swing low printed) but price hasn't reclaimed its 10-day average — first box ticked, not all买入预备。买方拒绝了 2026-07-17 的低点（摆动低点已现），但价格尚未收复 10 日均线——第一项条件达成，并非全部
Aug 11, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Aug 11, 2026
GEO made a new 52-week highGEO 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $31.75.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$31.75。
Aug 11, 2026
GEO StochRSI turned up from oversoldGEO StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $31.75.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$31.75。
Aug 7, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Aug 6, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Aug 5, 2026
GEO made a new 52-week highGEO 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $31.42.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$31.42。
Aug 3, 2026
GEO made a new 52-week highGEO 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $31.34.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$31.34。
Jul 31, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 29, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 260 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) is an American publicly traded C corporation private prison and mental health facility operator.GEO集团公司（GEO）是一家美国公开交易的C类股份公司，运营私营监狱和精神健康治疗机构。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Above market高于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Above market高于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Receivables stretch
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 16.3× | 30.2× | 86% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 2.8× | 4.4× | 69% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 1.6× | 2.2× | 65% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 14.7× | 16.5× | 60% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 6.2% | 3.1% | 88% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 1.8% | 5.5% | 9% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 2.2% | 2.2% | 50% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
57/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
86/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
96/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
78/100 — stronger than most强于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#130 / 262
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +0.8% | +1.2% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +2.0% | +3.5% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +32.5% | +5.2% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +113.7% | +14.4% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +90.6% | +14.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +47.1% | +21.6% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +313.2% | +79.7% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
0.92
Volatility rank波动率分位
21th pctile
Short interest空头占比
7.0% of float
Market cap市值
$4B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$1.87
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-4.3%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $2.4B | $2.3B | $2.4B | $2.4B | $2.4B | $2.6B |
| EPS每股收益 | $0.94 | $0.58 | $1.17 | $0.72 | $0.22 | $1.82 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $333M | $213M | $206M | $212M | $164M | $-125M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net margin净利率 | 4.8% | 3.4% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 9.7% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 14.2% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.7% | -4.7% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$2.6B
Net income净利润
$254M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$73M
Total assets总资产
$3.8B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$1.5B
Long-term debt长期负债
$1.6B
Buybacks股票回购
$91M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.14B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
16.9%
Return on assets资产回报率
6.6%
Debt / assets负债/资产
42.9%
Profit growth利润增速
+695.8%
Asset growth资产增速
+5.8%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 6 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 6 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Working capital: inventory +98% vs sales +11%; receivables +64% vs sales +12% — demand & revenue-quality risk营运资本：存货 +98% 对销售 +11%；应收 +64% 对销售 +12%——需求与营收质量风险
- Capital discipline: share count +12.3% over 6 years (dilution)资本纪律：股本 6 年增加 12.3%（稀释）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 2.19 — grey zone资产负债表：Altman Z 2.19——灰色区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
50
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
20
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-1.5%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+2.5%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+49.6%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down动能向下
3-day3日线
momentum down — fresh downturn动能向下——刚刚转弱
Weekly周线
momentum up动能向上
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
CoiledCOILED
Days compressed已压缩天数
28
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
3/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $0.29 | $0.19 | +52.6% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.25 | $0.25 | 0.0% |
| Sep 2025 | $0.25 | $0.22 | +13.6% |
| Jun 2025 | $0.22 | $0.16 | +37.5% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
2
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+2.8%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+0
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$0.1M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 1
Short interest空头占流通盘
7.0%
Days to cover回补天数
6.8
Short interest change空头变化
-7.9%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Jan · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Aug · 0%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 100% | +3.2% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 33% | -3.1% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 100% | +12.0% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 100% | +8.3% | 3 |
| May5月 | 33% | -1.6% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 33% | -0.5% | 3 |
| Jul7月 | 100% | +5.8% | 4 |
| Aug8月 | 0% | -2.9% | 4 |
| Sep9月 | 33% | -0.6% | 3 |
| Oct10月 | 67% | +7.5% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 67% | +15.6% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 67% | +2.8% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。