Stocks股票 / Materials / HCC
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. · Materials
HCC US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Mid cap中盘 · $4B
Mixed profile混合特征
Materials
S&P 600标普600小盘Russell 2000罗素2000
$79.00
+$0.09 · +0.11%
52w low52周低 $48.80high高 $114
Hold off — timing against you暂缓 — 时机不利
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-07-21
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
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Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
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Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-07-21
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
39
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-10.8% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-6.7% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
16th percentile第16百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-08-0516days to go天后公布
Estimates being cut预期下调
Valuation估值
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理| Multiple指标 | HCC | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 72.86x | 28.02 | |
| P/B市净率 | 1.94x | 2.74 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.37% | 2.96 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 17.11x | 12.17 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 10.8%
Earnings per share每股收益
Free cash flow自由现金流
Operating margin营业利润率
3.5%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 4/9
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Return on equity股本回报率 3%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.62
Current ratio流动比率3.19
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$20.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+0.5%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed -11.1%空头仓位变动 -11.1%
Technical技术面
HCC broke down vs the marketHCC 相对市场走弱
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$12.6M net (0 buyers, 3 sellers)-$12.6M 净值（0 买家，3 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalal Street (Mohnish Pabrai) | D | Holding持有 | 39.9% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID. Failed cycle — price broke below the low that started this cycle, which historically means the larger trend is rolling over (~80% of cases). Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell回避。失败周期——价格跌破了启动本周期的低点，历史上这通常意味着更大的趋势正在掉头向下（约 80% 的情形）。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Jul 15, 2026
HCC broke down vs the marketHCC 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $81.85.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$81.85。
Jul 14, 2026
HCC daily MACD crossed upHCC 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $83.33.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$83.33。
Jul 10, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 10, 2026
HCC StochRSI turned up from oversoldHCC StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $80.09.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$80.09。
Jul 7, 2026
HCC StochRSI turned up from oversoldHCC StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $77.74.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$77.74。
Jun 26, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jun 26, 2026
HCC lost its 200-day averageHCC 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $81.28.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$81.28。
Jun 24, 2026
HCC broke down vs the marketHCC 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $84.15.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$84.15。
Jun 19, 2026
HCC weekly MACD crossed downHCC 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 255 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Receivables stretch
- Inventory build
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 72.9× | 28.0× | 6% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 1.9× | 2.7× | 61% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 17.1× | 12.2× | 31% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.4% | 3.0% | 30% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 5.5% | 7.5% | 34% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
91/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
24/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
12/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
84/100 — stronger than most强于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#10 / 75
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -3.8% | -0.9% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -12.8% | -0.6% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -12.7% | +5.4% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -20.8% | +8.6% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -11.6% | +8.9% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +51.0% | +19.2% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +99.1% | +69.9% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
0.48
Volatility rank波动率分位
16th pctile
Short interest空头占比
7.0% of float
Market cap市值
$4B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$1.08
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-28.4%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $783M | $1.1B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.5B | $1.3B |
| EPS每股收益 | $-0.70 | $2.93 | $12.40 | $9.20 | $4.79 | $1.08 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $25M | $294M | $637M | — | — | — |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 20.1% | 47.7% | 59.1% | 45.7% | 34.0% | 25.0% |
| Net margin净利率 | -4.6% | 14.2% | 36.9% | 28.5% | 16.4% | 4.4% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 3.2% | 27.7% | 36.6% | — | — | — |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Net income净利润
$57M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$229M
Total assets总资产
$2.8B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$2.1B
Long-term debt长期负债
$154M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.05B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
2.7%
Return on assets资产回报率
2.0%
Debt / assets负债/资产
5.5%
Profit growth利润增速
-77.3%
Asset growth资产增速
+7.4%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 6 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 6 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Working capital: inventory +99% vs sales +67%; receivables +118% vs sales +67% — demand & revenue-quality risk营运资本：存货 +99% 对销售 +67%；应收 +118% 对销售 +67%——需求与营收质量风险
- Pricing power: gross margin +4.9pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年上升 4.9 个百分点
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 5.6 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 5.6——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
39
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
16
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-2.9%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-10.8%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-6.7%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum down动能向下
Weekly周线
momentum down动能向下
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
CompressedCOMPRESSED
Days compressed已压缩天数
1
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
21/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
4
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-20.3%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+0
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalal Street (Mohnish Pabrai) | D | Holding持有 | 39.9% | $169M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
1
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
0 : 0
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 11, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-12-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2024-02-14', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0]}{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 11, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-12-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2024-02-14', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$12.6M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 3
Short interest空头占流通盘
7.0%
Days to cover回补天数
4.2
Short interest change空头变化
-11.1%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
SPDR S&P Metals & MiningSPDR S&P Metals & Mining
trimming减持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Sep · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Feb · 0%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 67% | +2.1% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 0% | -7.9% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 67% | +7.0% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 67% | +1.5% | 3 |
| May5月 | 67% | +0.6% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 50% | +1.7% | 4 |
| Jul7月 | 75% | +13.1% | 4 |
| Aug8月 | 33% | -9.9% | 3 |
| Sep9月 | 100% | +5.3% | 3 |
| Oct10月 | 33% | -0.7% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 100% | +14.8% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 67% | +8.9% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。