Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Consumer Disc. / HOG
Harley-Davidson · Consumer Disc.
HOG US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is an American motorcycle manufacturer and lifestyle brand headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.哈雷戴维森公司是美国摩托车制造商及生活方式品牌，总部位于威斯康星州密尔沃基。
Mid cap中盘 · $3B
Cyclical周期股
Consumer Disc.
S&P 400标普400中盘
$24.54
-$0.10 · -0.41%
52w low52周低 $16.69high高 $30.52
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
The bottoming setup is not yet confirmed (price still below the 10-day average) and the 3-day/weekly momentum has crossed down — momentum is fading before the…筑底形态尚未确认（价格仍位于 10 日均线下方），且3 日/周线动量已向下交叉——动量在形态完成前已开始衰竭。等待价格收复 10 日均线且动量趋于稳定后再考虑建仓。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-08-03
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅作背景参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅作背景参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-03
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
43
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-2.3% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+8.5% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
72th percentile第72百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-07-29Estimates being raised — 3 analysts预期上调 — 3 位分析师
Valuation估值
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜| Multiple指标 | HOG | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 8.09x | 20.18 | |
| P/B市净率 | 0.87x | 3.04 | |
| P/S市销率 | 0.61x | 1.26 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 12.36% | 4.68 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 15.15% | 5.76 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 12.89% | 4.31 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 3.79x | 11.65 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 6.60x | 16.68 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 2.0%
Earnings per share每股收益
5-yr growth5年复合增速 208.2%
Free cash flow自由现金流
Operating margin营业利润率
8.6%
Net margin净利率
7.6%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
12.7%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 8/9
Bankruptcy risk: grey zone破产风险：灰色区
Return on equity股本回报率 11%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-1.11
Current ratio流动比率2.10
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$353.3M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$31.7M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-10.2%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
HOG daily MACD crossed downHOG 日线MACD下穿
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$0.2M net (3 buyers, 3 sellers)-$0.2M 净值（3 买家，3 卖家）
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
UPTREND → BOTTOMING上涨趋势 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP. Buyers rejected the 2026-07-01 low (swing low printed) but price hasn't reclaimed its 10-day average — first box ticked, not all买入预备。买方拒绝了 2026-07-01 的低点（摆动低点已现），但价格尚未收复 10 日均线——第一项条件达成，并非全部
Jul 27, 2026
HOG daily MACD crossed downHOG 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $24.79.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$24.79。
Jul 21, 2026
BUY ZONE → UPTREND买入区 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Jul 16, 2026
BOTTOMING → BUY ZONE筑底中 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jul 16, 2026
HOG took relative-strength leadershipHOG 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $26.81.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$26.81。
Jul 15, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 15, 2026
HOG daily MACD crossed upHOG 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $25.95.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$25.95。
Jul 10, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 9, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 8, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 286 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is an American motorcycle manufacturer and lifestyle brand headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.哈雷戴维森公司是美国摩托车制造商及生活方式品牌，总部位于威斯康星州密尔沃基。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Above market高于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Above market高于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Above market高于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Above market高于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Receivables stretch
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 8.1× | 20.2× | 94% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 0.9× | 3.0× | 94% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 0.6× | 1.3× | 69% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 3.8× | 11.7× | 96% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 12.4% | 4.7% | 95% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 20.8% | 8.5% | 90% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 12.9% | 4.3% | 93% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
40/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
50/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
80/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
29/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#99 / 210
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -3.7% | +1.1% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +1.6% | +0.2% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +1.0% | +3.7% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +26.2% | +8.3% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +21.1% | +9.6% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +4.1% | +19.2% |
| 3 Years近3年 | -31.3% | +69.4% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
0.77
Volatility rank波动率分位
72th pctile
Short interest空头占比
15.3% of float
Market cap市值
$3B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$3.03
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-18.3%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $4.1B | $5.3B | $5.8B | $5.8B | $5.2B | $4.5B |
| EPS每股收益 | $0.01 | $4.19 | $4.96 | $4.87 | $3.44 | $2.78 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $1.0B | $856M | $397M | $547M | $867M | $415M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 39.9% | 39.2% | 40.9% | 43.1% | 42.0% | 38.7% |
| Net margin净利率 | 0.0% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 7.6% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 25.8% | 16.0% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 16.7% | 9.3% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$4.5B
Net income净利润
$339M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$569M
Total assets总资产
$8.0B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$3.1B
Long-term debt长期负债
$1.6B
Buybacks股票回购
$353M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.11B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
10.8%
Return on assets资产回报率
4.2%
Debt / assets负债/资产
20.5%
Profit growth利润增速
-25.6%
Asset growth资产增速
-32.3%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 6 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 6 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Working capital: inventory +40% vs sales +10%; receivables +58% vs sales +10% — demand & revenue-quality risk营运资本：存货 +40% 对销售 +10%；应收 +58% 对销售 +10%——需求与营收质量风险
- Pricing power: gross margin −1.2pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年下降 1.2 个百分点
- Capital discipline: disciplined growth, returning cash资本纪律：增长克制、回报股东
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 2.13 — grey zone资产负债表：Altman Z 2.13——灰色区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
43
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
14
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-5.0%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-2.3%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+8.5%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down动能向下
3-day3日线
momentum down — fresh downturn动能向下——刚刚转弱
Weekly周线
momentum up动能向上
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
70/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
3
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+28.1%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+3
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$0.2M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
3 : 3
Short interest空头占流通盘
15.3%
Days to cover回补天数
8.5
Short interest change空头变化
+0.3%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
May · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Jan · 0%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 0% | -10.4% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 33% | -4.0% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 67% | +13.4% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 33% | -9.2% | 3 |
| May5月 | 100% | +4.6% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 50% | +2.5% | 4 |
| Jul7月 | 100% | +9.5% | 4 |
| Aug8月 | 67% | +0.3% | 3 |
| Sep9月 | 33% | -1.2% | 3 |
| Oct10月 | 0% | -18.0% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 67% | +5.4% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 33% | -10.3% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。