Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Industrials / KTOS
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions · Industrials
KTOS US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Large cap大盘 · $11B
Industrials
S&P 400标普400中盘
Speculative / unprofitable投机／未盈利
$62.79
-$1.03 · -1.61%
52w low52周低 $42.04high高 $134
Leader · accounting warning — verify before buying领先 · 财务质量警示 — 买入前先核实
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 43.88.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 43.88 下方。
Live实时
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
68
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+19.4% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-14.9% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
45th percentile第45百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being raised — 1 analysts预期上调 — 1 位分析师
Post-earnings drift: +8.0% (20d)财报后漂移：+8.0%（20日）
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | KTOS | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 481.98x | 30.23 | |
| P/B市净率 | 5.31x | 4.41 | |
| P/S市销率 | 7.87x | 2.24 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 0.21% | 3.11 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | -1.30% | 3.73 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 138.14x | 16.47 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$1.3B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 12.5%
Earnings per share每股收益
$0.132025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -28.0%
Free cash flow自由现金流
-$137.4M2025
20202025
Gross margin毛利率
22.9%
Operating margin营业利润率
1.9%
Net margin净利率
1.6%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
-3.1%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 4/9
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Return on equity股本回报率 1%
Warning警示
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-7.71
Current ratio流动比率4.06
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$35.5M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+11.8%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Space Economy theme — #18 of 49 themes「太空经济」主题 — 49 个主题中第 18 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
KTOS RSI reached overboughtKTOS RSI进入超买
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±3.87%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±8.66%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$50
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
2.2%
Flow:资金流向： $3M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 11 fresh positions; P/C 0.32; ~leans bearish (direction approx)成交权利金 $3M；0DTE占0%；11个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.32；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: greed偏斜：贪婪
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$47.0M net (0 buyers, 15 sellers)-$47.0M 净值（0 买家，15 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soros Fund Management | B | New position新建仓 | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
| Polen Capital Management | B | Adding加仓 | 0.0% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum just crossed up; investor cycle failed (broke its start low); investor cycle overdue; last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量刚刚向上交叉；投资者周期失败（跌破起始低点）；投资者周期已逾期；上一周期左移（见顶偏早））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Aug 11, 2026
KTOS RSI reached overboughtKTOS RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $63.73.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$63.73。
Aug 7, 2026
KTOS weekly MACD crossed upKTOS 周线MACD上穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 29, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 29, 2026
KTOS printed a daily-cycle lowKTOS 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $43.88.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$43.88。
Jul 29, 2026
KTOS broke down vs the marketKTOS 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $43.88.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$43.88。
Jul 29, 2026
KTOS made a new 52-week lowKTOS 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $43.88.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$43.88。
Jul 24, 2026
KTOS broke down vs the marketKTOS 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $47.35.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$47.35。
Jul 21, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 21, 2026
KTOS daily MACD crossed upKTOS 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $48.21.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$48.21。
Jul 17, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 17, 2026
KTOS made a new 52-week lowKTOS 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $46.03.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$46.03。
Jul 17, 2026
KTOS daily MACD crossed downKTOS 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $46.03.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$46.03。
Jul 14, 2026
KTOS daily MACD crossed upKTOS 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $50.36.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$50.36。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 246 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Demand chain:需求链： Contracted bookings (RPO) decelerating (+9% YoY to ~$2B, 1.2× revenue) — signed demand locked in ahead of recognition已签约订单（RPO）增速放缓（同比+9%，约 $2B，覆盖营收 1.2 倍）——已锁定、尚未确认的需求
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Above market高于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
- Receivables stretch
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 482.0× | 30.2× | 0% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 5.3× | 4.4× | 39% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 7.9× | 2.2× | 5% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 138.1× | 16.5× | 0% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 0.2% | 3.1% | 8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | -0.4% | 5.5% | 4% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
51/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
79/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
10/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
41/100 — middle of the pack居中
Rank in sector行业内排名
#148 / 262
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +9.4% | +1.2% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +24.7% | +3.5% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +20.5% | +5.2% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -29.5% | +14.4% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -20.8% | +14.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -8.7% | +21.6% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +291.2% | +79.7% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
2.19
Volatility rank波动率分位
45th pctile
Short interest空头占比
5.7% of float
Market cap市值
$11B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$0.13
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-52.0%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $748M | $812M | $898M | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.3B |
| EPS每股收益 | $0.67 | $-0.02 | $-0.29 | $-0.07 | $0.11 | $0.13 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | — | — | $-71M | $13M | $-8M | $-137M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 27.2% | 27.7% | 25.2% | 25.9% | 25.3% | 22.9% |
| Net margin净利率 | 10.6% | -0.2% | -4.1% | -0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | — | — | -7.9% | 1.2% | -0.7% | -10.2% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$1.3B
Gross profit毛利润
$308M
Net income净利润
$22M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$-42M
Total assets总资产
$2.5B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$2.0B
Long-term debt长期负债
$0
Shares outstanding总股本
0.17B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
1.1%
Return on assets资产回报率
0.9%
Debt / assets负债/资产
0.0%
Profit growth利润增速
+35.0%
Asset growth资产增速
+26.5%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals elevated vs peers (earnings lean on non-cash items)盈利质量：应计利润高于同业（盈利依赖非现金项目）
- Working capital: working capital roughly in line with sales营运资本：营运资本与销售大致同步
- Pricing power: gross margin −4.3pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年下降 4.3 个百分点
- Capital discipline: share count +37.2% over 6 years (dilution)资本纪律：股本 6 年增加 37.2%（稀释）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 14.19 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 14.19——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
68
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
48
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+19.9%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+19.4%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-14.9%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum up动能向上
Weekly周线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
94/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
1
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+2.7%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+1
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$70
Put wall看跌期权墙
$57
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$50
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$65
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$60
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
+22.1%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
1%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
+2.2%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
+0.1pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soros Fund Management | B | New position新建仓 | 0.0% | $352,550 |
| Polen Capital Management | B | Adding增持 | 0.0% | $2M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
2
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
2 : 0
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 4, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 2, 'holders_delta': 1, 'value_change_pct': 50.6, 'from_period': '2025-06-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-16', 'available_on_first': '2025-08-13', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 2]}{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 4, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 2, 'holders_delta': 1, 'value_change_pct': 50.6, 'from_period': '2025-06-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-16', 'available_on_first': '2025-08-13', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 2]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$47.0M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 15
Short interest空头占流通盘
5.7%
Days to cover回补天数
2.9
Short interest change空头变化
-8.0%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
SPDR S&P Aerospace & DefenseSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense
accumulating持续增持
ARK Space & Defense InnovationARK Space & Defense Innovation
accumulating持续增持
ARKKARKK
accumulating持续增持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
May · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Feb · 33%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 67% | +24.5% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 33% | -13.9% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 67% | +1.0% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 33% | -2.3% | 3 |
| May5月 | 100% | +9.5% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 33% | -8.1% | 3 |
| Jul7月 | 75% | +12.4% | 4 |
| Aug8月 | 100% | +12.6% | 4 |
| Sep9月 | 67% | +2.0% | 3 |
| Oct10月 | 67% | +0.8% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 67% | +11.6% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 67% | +1.0% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。