Stocks股票 / Tech / LITE
Lumentum · Tech
LITE US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is an American manufacturer of optical and photonic products.Lumentum控股公司是一家美国光学和光子产品制造商。
Large cap大盘 · $55B
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
Tech
S&P 500标普500
$765.55
+$32.73 · +4.47%
52w low52周低 $97.80high高 $1,099
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 698.91.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 698.91 下方。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-07-21
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
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Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
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Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-07-21
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
46
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-11.6% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+33.1% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
50th percentile第50百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-08-1122days to go天后公布
Estimates being raised — 19 analysts预期上调 — 19 位分析师
Post-earnings drift: -3.2% (20d)财报后漂移：-3.2%（20日）
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | LITE | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B市净率 | 64.56x | 5.91 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | -0.19% | 3.07 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -0.4%
Earnings per share每股收益
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -26.7%
Free cash flow自由现金流
Operating margin营业利润率
-10.9%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 6/8
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Warning警示
Leverage杠杆
Current ratio流动比率4.37
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$177.2M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+3.3%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Technology (Equal-Weight) theme — #23 of 46 themes「信息技术（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 23 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
LITE daily MACD crossed upLITE 日线MACD上穿
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±7.21%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±16.11%
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-2.1%
Flow:资金流向： $114M premium traded; 38% 0DTE; 159 fresh positions; P/C 1.2; net new PUT positioning (defensive / hedging) (ΔOI +12,780); ~leans bearish (direction approx)成交权利金 $114M；0DTE占38%；159个新建仓；看跌看涨比 1.2；净新增看跌持仓（防御/对冲）（ΔOI +12,780）；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: balanced偏斜：balanced
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$46.4M net (0 buyers, 9 sellers)-$46.4M 净值（0 买家，9 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiger Global (Coleman) | B | New position新建仓 | 0.4% | 2026-03-31 |
| Light Street Capital | B | New position新建仓 | 0.4% | 2026-03-31 |
| Duquesne Family Office (Druckenmiller) | C | New position新建仓 | 0.1% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum negative; investor cycle overdue; last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. The daily cycle has also failed (broke its own start low), which tilts the odds toward failure here. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量为负；投资者周期已逾期；上一周期左移（见顶偏早））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。日线周期同样已经失败（跌破其自身起始低点），此处概率更偏向失败。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Jul 20, 2026
LITE daily MACD crossed upLITE 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $765.55.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$765.55。
Jul 16, 2026
LITE broke down vs the marketLITE 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $706.23.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$706.23。
Jul 16, 2026
LITE daily MACD crossed downLITE 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $706.23.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$706.23。
Jul 15, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 14, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 14, 2026
LITE daily MACD crossed upLITE 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $814.80.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$814.80。
Jul 13, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 10, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近高点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 9, 2026
DOWNTREND → NEARING A HIGH下跌趋势 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 9, 2026
LITE StochRSI turned up from oversoldLITE StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $785.77.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$785.77。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 116 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is an American manufacturer of optical and photonic products.Lumentum控股公司是一家美国光学和光子产品制造商。
Demand chain:需求链： Hyperscaler capex accelerating (+69% YoY to ~$379B) — the demand pool for AI infrastructure (compute, memory, networking)云厂商资本开支加速（同比+69%，约 $379B）——AI 基础设施（算力／内存／网络）的需求来源
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book市净率 | 64.6× | 5.9× | 2% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
99/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
24/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
98/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
99/100 — stronger than most强于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#9 / 184
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -0.3% | -0.9% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -9.9% | -0.6% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -8.5% | +5.4% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +111.2% | +8.6% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +98.3% | +8.9% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +648.9% | +19.2% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
2.79
Volatility rank波动率分位
50th pctile
Short interest空头占比
13.5% of float
Market cap市值
$55B
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-27.3%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.4B | $1.6B |
| EPS每股收益 | $1.75 | $5.07 | $2.68 | $-1.93 | $-8.12 | $0.37 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $438M | $654M | $368M | $51M | $-108M | $-105M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 38.7% | 44.9% | 46.0% | 32.2% | 18.5% | 28.0% |
| Net margin净利率 | 8.1% | 22.8% | 11.6% | -7.4% | -40.2% | 1.6% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 26.1% | 37.5% | 21.5% | 2.9% | -8.0% | -6.4% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Total assets总资产
$4.8B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$847M
Long-term debt长期负债
$47M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.07B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Debt / assets负债/资产
1.0%
Asset growth资产增速
+21.2%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 6 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 6 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Working capital: inventory +149% vs sales +-2% — inventory building, demand risk营运资本：存货 +149% 对销售 +-2%——存货积压，需求风险
- Pricing power: gross margin −10.7pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年下降 10.7 个百分点
- Capital discipline: assets +21.2% (aggressive expansion)资本纪律：资产 +21.2%（扩张激进）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 10.97 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 10.97——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
46
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
71
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-2.8%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-11.6%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+33.1%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
3-day3日线
momentum down动能向下
Weekly周线
momentum down动能向下
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
48/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
19
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+15.6%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+17
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$800
Put wall看跌期权墙
$700
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$800
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$700
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
-$0.0B
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
1%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-2.1%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
-0.0pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiger Global (Coleman) | B | New position新建仓 | 0.4% | $96M |
| Light Street Capital | B | New position新建仓 | 0.4% | $2M |
| Duquesne Family Office (Druckenmiller) | C | New position新建仓 | 0.1% | $4,893 |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
3
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
3 : 0
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 13, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-06-30', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-08-11', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 0]}{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 13, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-06-30', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-08-11', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 0]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$46.4M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 9
Short interest空头占流通盘
13.5%
Days to cover回补天数
1.6
Short interest change空头变化
+3.9%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
Roundhill Generative AI & TechRoundhill Generative AI & Tech
accumulating持续增持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。