Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Industrials / MRCY
Mercury Systems · Industrials
MRCY US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Mid cap中盘 · $7B
Industrials
S&P 600标普600小盘Russell 2000罗素2000
Cyclical周期股
$109.79
-$1.85 · -1.66%
52w low52周低 $62.70high高 $129
Leader · accounting warning — verify before buying领先 · 财务质量警示 — 买入前先核实
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 90.17.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 90.17 下方。
Live实时
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
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Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-08-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
54
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+1.1% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+23.1% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
73th percentile第73百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-08-184
Estimates being raised — 1 analysts预期上调 — 1 位分析师
Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 234.3%
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | MRCY | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B市净率 | 4.47x | 4.41 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 1.83% | 3.73 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 99.52x | 16.47 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 54.76x | 24.95 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$912.0M2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 2.7%
Earnings per share每股收益
$-0.652025
20202025
Free cash flow自由现金流
$119.0M2025
20202025
Operating margin营业利润率
-2.2%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 5/8
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Warning警示
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-4.95
Current ratio流动比率3.52
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$25.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+1.2%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Defense & Aerospace theme — #23 of 49 themes「国防与航空航天」主题 — 49 个主题中第 23 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
MRCY daily MACD crossed upMRCY 日线MACD上穿
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±6.18%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±13.82%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$120
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
4.2%
Flow:资金流向： $1M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 5 fresh positions; P/C 1.35; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $1M；0DTE占0%；5个新建仓；看跌看涨比 1.35；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: greed偏斜：贪婪
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$76.5M net (0 buyers, 7 sellers)-$76.5M 净值（0 买家，7 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JANA Partners Management | C | trimtrim | 18.6% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum negative; last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量为负；上一周期左移（见顶偏早））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Aug 3, 2026
MRCY daily MACD crossed upMRCY 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $105.79.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$105.79。
Jul 29, 2026
MRCY printed a daily-cycle lowMRCY 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $90.17.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$90.17。
Jul 28, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 24, 2026
BOTTOMING → UNCONFIRMED TURN筑底中 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 24, 2026
MRCY weekly MACD crossed downMRCY 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 23, 2026
MRCY StochRSI turned up from oversoldMRCY StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $106.34.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$106.34。
Jul 13, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 9, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 250 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Above market高于市场
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book市净率 | 4.5× | 4.4× | 49% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 99.5× | 16.5× | 2% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
92/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
78/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
86/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
86/100 — stronger than most强于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#34 / 262
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +0.9% | +1.2% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +9.4% | +3.5% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +19.3% | +5.2% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +33.3% | +14.4% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +44.4% | +14.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +60.5% | +21.6% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +213.3% | +79.7% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
2.37
Volatility rank波动率分位
73th pctile
Short interest空头占比
8.3% of float
Market cap市值
$7B
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-13.0%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $797M | $924M | $988M | $974M | $835M | $912M |
| EPS每股收益 | $1.56 | $1.12 | $0.20 | $-0.50 | $-2.38 | $-0.65 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $72M | $52M | $-47M | $-60M | $26M | $119M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 44.8% | 41.7% | 40.0% | 32.5% | 23.5% | 27.9% |
| Net margin净利率 | 10.8% | 6.7% | 1.1% | -2.9% | -16.5% | -4.2% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 9.0% | 5.6% | -4.7% | -6.2% | 3.1% | 13.1% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Total assets总资产
$2.5B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$1.5B
Shares outstanding总股本
0.06B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Asset growth资产增速
+4.2%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: earnings cash-backed盈利质量：盈利有现金支撑
- Working capital: inventory +87% vs sales +14% — inventory building, demand risk营运资本：存货 +87% 对销售 +14%——存货积压，需求风险
- Pricing power: gross margin −16.9pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年下降 16.9 个百分点
- Capital discipline: share count +7.9% over 6 years (dilution)资本纪律：股本 6 年增加 7.9%（稀释）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 4.89 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 4.89——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
54
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
44
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+6.2%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+1.1%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+23.1%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
Weekly周线
momentum down动能向下
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
60/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2026 | $0.13 | $-0.09 | +244.4% |
| Dec 2025 | $-0.04 | $-0.07 | +42.9% |
| Sep 2025 | $0.05 | $-0.04 | +225.0% |
| Jun 2025 | $0.42 | $0.08 | +425.0% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
1
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+3.0%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+1
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$115
Put wall看跌期权墙
$95
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$120
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$110
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$90
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
-13.7%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
1%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
+4.2%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
-0.1pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JANA Partners Management | C | Trimming减持 | 18.6% | $299M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
1
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
0 : 1
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 11, 'holders_first': 2, 'holders_last': 1, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': 15.1, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-16', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-15', 'holders_series': [2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1]}{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 11, 'holders_first': 2, 'holders_last': 1, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': 15.1, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-16', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-15', 'holders_series': [2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$76.5M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 7
Short interest空头占流通盘
8.3%
Days to cover回补天数
7.9
Short interest change空头变化
+3.0%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
SPDR S&P Aerospace & DefenseSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense
trimming减持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Aug · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Mar · 0%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 33% | -0.3% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 67% | +2.3% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 0% | -2.4% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 67% | +8.5% | 3 |
| May5月 | 67% | +9.8% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 67% | +9.7% | 3 |
| Jul7月 | 50% | +11.8% | 4 |
| Aug8月 | 100% | +13.0% | 4 |
| Sep9月 | 33% | -2.1% | 3 |
| Oct10月 | 33% | -2.5% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 33% | -3.6% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 100% | +5.1% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。