Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Industrials / MRCY
Mercury Systems · Industrials
MRCY US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Mid cap中盘 · $5B
Industrials
S&P 600标普600小盘Russell 2000罗素2000
Cyclical周期股
$82.18
-$1.00 · -1.20%
52w low52周低 $64.78high高 $129
Leader · accounting warning — verify before buying领先 · 财务质量警示 — 买入前先核实
A normal mid-cycle dip below the 10-day average — the real cycle low isn't due for ~12+ trading days. Wait for support to hold, or for the next low to set up.这是跌破 10 日均线的正常周期中段回调——真正的周期低点要到约 12+ 个交易日后才会到来。等待支撑站稳，或等下一个低点构筑成形。
As of 2026-09-28截至 2026-09-28
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
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Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-09-28
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
38
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-12.9% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-10.3% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
20th percentile第20百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-11-0336
Estimates being cut预期下调
Beat in 3 of last 4 quarters近 4 季中 3 季超预期
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 125.6%
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | MRCY | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B市净率 | 3.34x | 3.86 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 2.44% | 4.12 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 73.25x | 15.24 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 40.99x | 22.19 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$912.0M2025
20212025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -0.3%
Earnings per share每股收益
$-0.652025
20212025
Free cash flow自由现金流
$119.0M2025
20212025
Operating margin营业利润率
-2.2%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 5/8
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Warning警示
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-4.95
Current ratio流动比率3.52
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$25.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+1.2%
Debt coming due到期债务
FY2016 10-KIn the 12-month bucket following fiscal period end 2016-06-30, it reported $10.0M due — about 5% of its disclosed principal.在财年期末 2016-06-30 之后12个月的区间内，已披露到期本金为 $10.0M，约占其披露本金的 5%。
All maturity buckets are measured from fiscal period end 2016-06-30, not from today.所有到期区间均从财年期末 2016-06-30 起算，而非从今天起算。
First 12 months after period end报告期末之后首12个月
$10.0M
Year 2第2年
$10.0M
Year 3第3年
$15.0M
Year 4第4年
$20.0M
Year 5第5年
$145.0M
After year 55年以后
not reported未披露
Cash reported at 2026-07-03: $214306000.截至 2026-07-03 披露的现金：$214306000。 Operating cash flow exceeded or equaled equipment spending over 2025-06-28 to 2026-07-03; no cash burn to measure.在 2025-06-28 至 2026-07-03 期间，经营现金流不低于设备支出，无可衡量的现金消耗。
Capital-need coverage is partial; incomplete or incompatible filing inputs are not combined.资本需求覆盖信息不完整；不会合并不完整或不兼容的报告数据。
Any available cash-flow scenario is context only. Missing or incompatible inputs are not replaced with zero or a financing forecast.可用现金流情景仅供参考；缺失或不兼容的输入不以零值或融资预测替代。
Sources and cash-flow calculation来源与现金流计算
Figures are XBRL facts from one filing — no two years are mixed. Filing数据取自同一份文件中的 XBRL 事实，不跨文件拼接。文件
0001049521-16-000094, period ending报告期截至 2016-06-30, unit单位 USD.
Cache acquired缓存获取时间: 2026-09-28T09:02:37.999732+00:00.
5/6 buckets reported.个区间有披露。
LongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInNextTwelveMonthsLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearTwoLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearThreeLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearFourLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearFiveLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalAfterYearFive— absent
Annual period年度区间 2025-06-28 — 2026-07-03 · USD · 10-K · 0001049521-26-000045 · Filed提交日期 2026-08-18.
Cache acquired缓存获取时间: 2026-09-28T09:02:37.999732+00:00 · Evaluated as of评估截至 2026-09-29.
- Reported operating cash flow已披露经营活动现金流: $102388000
- Reported equipment spending (capex outflow)已披露设备支出（资本开支流出）: $34301000
- Derived free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex)计算所得自由现金流（经营现金流减资本开支）: $68087000
Cash is the reported balance at period end. The runway scenario holds this annual cash-flow pace constant and excludes debt payments, restricted-cash adjustments and future financing.现金为期末已披露余额。现金跑道情景假设本年度现金流速度保持不变，不包括债务偿还、受限现金调整与未来融资。
Research context only — reported figures from SEC filings, not a rating, a signal or investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 数据摘自 SEC 文件披露口径，不构成评级、信号或投资建议。
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Defense & Aerospace theme — #41 of 49 themes「国防与航空航天」主题 — 49 个主题中第 41 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±4.00%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±8.94%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$94
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
9.1%
Flow:资金流向： $1M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 5 fresh positions; P/C 1.35; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $1M；0DTE占0%；5个新建仓；看跌看涨比 1.35；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: greed偏斜：贪婪
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$76.5M net (0 buyers, 7 sellers)-$76.5M 净值（0 买家，7 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital Management | C | New position新建仓 | 0.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| JANA Partners Management | D | Holding持有 | 25.5% | 2026-06-30 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
DOWNTREND → NEARING A LOW下跌趋势 → 接近低点
GET READY. Mixed structure. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell准备。结构混合。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Sep 23, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Sep 22, 2026
MRCY broke down vs the marketMRCY 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $83.88.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$83.88。
Sep 15, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Sep 15, 2026
MRCY daily MACD crossed upMRCY 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $87.01.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$87.01。
Sep 14, 2026
MRCY StochRSI turned up from oversoldMRCY StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $81.03.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$81.03。
Sep 10, 2026
MRCY printed a daily-cycle lowMRCY 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $80.43.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$80.43。
Aug 31, 2026
MRCY broke down vs the marketMRCY 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $87.33.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$87.33。
Aug 28, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Aug 28, 2026
MRCY lost its 200-day averageMRCY 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $88.54.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$88.54。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 258 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Above market高于市场
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book市净率 | 3.3× | 3.9× | 57% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 73.2× | 15.2× | 3% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
76/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
11/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
62/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
66/100 — middle of the pack居中
Rank in sector行业内排名
#92 / 263
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -3.6% | +1.3% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -8.4% | +0.9% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -24.9% | +6.1% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +15.1% | +22.3% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +8.1% | +13.8% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +12.4% | +18.5% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +128.3% | +87.8% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
2.21
Volatility rank波动率分位
20th pctile
Short interest空头占比
8.5% of float
Market cap市值
$5B
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-34.9%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $924M | $988M | $974M | $835M | $912M |
| EPS每股收益 | $1.12 | $0.20 | $-0.50 | $-2.38 | $-0.65 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $52M | $-47M | $-60M | $26M | $119M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 41.7% | 40.0% | 32.5% | 23.5% | 27.9% |
| Net margin净利率 | 6.7% | 1.1% | -2.9% | -16.5% | -4.2% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 5.6% | -4.7% | -6.2% | 3.1% | 13.1% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Total assets总资产
$2.5B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$1.5B
Shares outstanding总股本
0.06B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Asset growth资产增速
+4.2%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: earnings cash-backed盈利质量：盈利有现金支撑
- Working capital: inventory +50% vs sales +-1% — inventory building, demand risk营运资本：存货 +50% 对销售 +-1%——存货积压，需求风险
- Pricing power: gross margin −13.8pts over 5 years定价能力：毛利率 5 年下降 13.8 个百分点
- Capital discipline: share count +7.9% over 5 years (dilution)资本纪律：股本 5 年增加 7.9%（稀释）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 3.87 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 3.87——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
38
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
15
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-2.0%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-12.9%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-10.3%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum down动能向下
Weekly周线
momentum down动能向下
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
CoiledCOILED
Days compressed已压缩天数
5
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
4/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $0.18 | $0.20 | -10.0% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.13 | $-0.09 | +244.4% |
| Dec 2025 | $-0.04 | $-0.07 | +42.9% |
| Sep 2025 | $0.05 | $-0.04 | +225.0% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
6
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+4.3%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+2
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$90
Put wall看跌期权墙
$75
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$94
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$90
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$75
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
-15.7%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
1%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
+9.1%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
-0.1pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital Management | C | New position新建仓 | 0.0% | $355,246 |
| JANA Partners Management | D | Holding持有 | 25.5% | $484M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
2
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
1 : 0
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 12, 'holders_first': 2, 'holders_last': 2, 'holders_delta': 0, 'value_change_pct': 86.3, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '2026-08-15', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-15', 'holders_series': [2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2]}{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 12, 'holders_first': 2, 'holders_last': 2, 'holders_delta': 0, 'value_change_pct': 86.3, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '2026-08-15', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-15', 'holders_series': [2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$76.5M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 7
Short interest空头占流通盘
8.5%
Days to cover回补天数
7.3
Short interest change空头变化
-3.8%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
SPDR S&P Aerospace & DefenseSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense
accumulating持续增持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Dec · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Mar · 0%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 33% | -0.3% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 67% | +2.3% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 0% | -2.4% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 67% | +8.5% | 3 |
| May5月 | 67% | +9.8% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 67% | +9.7% | 3 |
| Jul7月 | 33% | -1.9% | 3 |
| Aug8月 | 75% | +8.3% | 4 |
| Sep9月 | 25% | -2.1% | 4 |
| Oct10月 | 33% | -2.5% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 33% | -3.6% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 100% | +5.1% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。