Stocks股票 / Consumer Disc. / NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings · Consumer Disc.
NCLH US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is a holding company that is based in the United States and domiciled in Bermuda.挪威邮轮控股有限公司是一家注册于百慕大、总部位于美国的控股公司。
Mid cap中盘 · $9B
Distressed困境股
Consumer Disc.
S&P 500标普500
$19.49
+$0.03 · +0.15%
52w low52周低 $14.32high高 $27.48
Extended — don't chase; wait for a pullback过度拉升 — 勿追高；等待回撤
Stretched/late — protect gains and don't start new positions; let the next low set up first.已拉伸／晚期——保护利润，不要新开仓；先等下一个低点构筑成形。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-07-21
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
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Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
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Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-07-21
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
49
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+4.5% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-4.8% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
25th percentile第25百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-07-3010days to go天后公布
Estimates being cut预期下调
Valuation估值
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理| Multiple指标 | NCLH | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 20.97x | 19.97 | |
| P/B市净率 | 4.02x | 2.89 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 4.77% | 4.57 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | -13.18% | 5.73 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 3.18x | 11.39 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 50.3%
Earnings per share每股收益
Free cash flow自由现金流
Operating margin营业利润率
15.9%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 5/8
Bankruptcy risk: distress zone破产风险：警戒区
Return on equity股本回报率 19%
Warning警示
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.08
Current ratio流动比率0.21
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$88.4M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+3.5%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Travel & Experiences theme — #19 of 46 themes「旅行与体验」主题 — 46 个主题中第 19 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
NCLH StochRSI turned up from oversoldNCLH StochRSI自超卖区上行
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±3.75%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±8.38%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$20
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-6.8%
Flow:资金流向： $1M premium traded; 16% 0DTE; 11 fresh positions; P/C 1.55; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $1M；0DTE占16%；11个新建仓；看跌看涨比 1.55；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: fear偏斜：避险
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： +$1.6M net (7 buyers, 1 sellers)+$1.6M 净值（7 买家，1 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baupost Group (Klarman) | C | New position新建仓 | 1.3% | 2026-03-31 |
| Elliott Investment Management | C | New position新建仓 | 1.2% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS. Late in the daily cycle (day 41 of ~23-44) — odds favor a dip into the next cycle low from here even with the trend intact. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell止盈。处于日线周期晚期（约 23-44 天中的第 41 天）——即便趋势完好，从此处概率上仍倾向于回落至下一个周期低点。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Jul 10, 2026
NCLH StochRSI turned up from oversoldNCLH StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $19.61.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$19.61。
Jul 2, 2026
NCLH daily MACD crossed downNCLH 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $19.78.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$19.78。
Jul 1, 2026
UPTREND → BOTTOMING上涨趋势 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jul 1, 2026
NCLH lost its 200-day averageNCLH 跌破200日均线
Price closed below the 200-day moving average — the classic bear dividing line. $20.67.收盘跌破200日均线 — 经典的空头分界线。$20.67。
Jun 24, 2026
NCLH reclaimed its 200-day averageNCLH 收复200日均线
Price closed back above the 200-day moving average — the classic bull dividing line. $21.01.收盘重回200日均线 — 经典的多头分界线。$21.01。
Jun 19, 2026
NCLH weekly MACD crossed upNCLH 周线MACD上穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jun 11, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UPTREND接近低点 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
May 22, 2026
NCLH daily MACD crossed upNCLH 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $16.30.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$16.30。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 92 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is a holding company that is based in the United States and domiciled in Bermuda.挪威邮轮控股有限公司是一家注册于百慕大、总部位于美国的控股公司。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Above market高于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Receivables stretch
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 21.0× | 20.0× | 46% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 4.0× | 2.9× | 39% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 3.2× | 11.4× | 97% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 4.8% | 4.6% | 52% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 23.6% | 8.6% | 95% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
50/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
25/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
23/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
21/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#149 / 192
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -0.7% | -0.9% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -4.6% | -0.6% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +0.8% | +5.4% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -6.6% | +8.6% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -14.4% | +8.9% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -17.4% | +19.2% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
2.11
Volatility rank波动率分位
25th pctile
Short interest空头占比
18.6% of float
Market cap市值
$9B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$0.93
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-27.7%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $1.3B | $648M | $4.8B | $8.5B | $9.5B | $9.8B |
| EPS每股收益 | $-15.75 | $-12.33 | $-5.41 | $0.39 | $1.89 | $0.92 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $-3.5B | $-3.2B | $-1.6B | $-745M | $839M | $-1.2B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | — | -148.2% | 11.9% | 36.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% |
| Net margin净利率 | -313.5% | -695.5% | -46.9% | 1.9% | 9.6% | 4.3% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | -273.7% | -497.1% | -32.5% | -8.7% | 8.8% | -11.9% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Net income净利润
$423M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$2.1B
Total assets总资产
$22.5B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$2.2B
Shares outstanding总股本
0.46B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
19.2%
Return on assets资产回报率
1.9%
Profit growth利润增速
-53.5%
Asset growth资产增速
+12.9%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: earnings cash-backed盈利质量：盈利有现金支撑
- Working capital: receivables +1317% vs sales +668% — receivables outpacing sales, revenue-quality risk营运资本：应收 +1317% 对销售 +668%——应收快于销售，营收质量风险
- Pricing power: gross margin +190.8pts over 5 years定价能力：毛利率 5 年上升 190.8 个百分点
- Capital discipline: share count +44.2% over 6 years (dilution)资本纪律：股本 6 年增加 44.2%（稀释）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 0.35 — distress zone资产负债表：Altman Z 0.35——困境区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
49
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
38
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-2.7%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+4.5%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-4.8%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down动能向下
3-day3日线
momentum up动能向上
Weekly周线
momentum up动能向上
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
41/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
5
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-20.0%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
-1
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$21
Put wall看跌期权墙
$18
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$20
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$20
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$15
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
-2.0%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
1%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-6.8%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
-0.0pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baupost Group (Klarman) | C | New position新建仓 | 1.3% | $67,881 |
| Elliott Investment Management | C | New position新建仓 | 1.2% | $247M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
2
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
2 : 0
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 14, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-05-12', 'holders_series': [1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0]}{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 14, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -1, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-05-12', 'holders_series': [1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
+$1.6M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
7 : 1
Short interest空头占流通盘
18.6%
Days to cover回补天数
4.2
Short interest change空头变化
+1.5%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。