Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Consumer Disc. / NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings · Consumer Disc.
NCLH US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is a holding company that is based in the United States and domiciled in Bermuda.挪威邮轮控股有限公司是一家注册于百慕大、总部位于美国的控股公司。
Mid cap中盘 · $7B
Consumer Disc.
Distressed困境股
$15.10
Regular quote常规时段报价
-$0.44 · -2.83%
Extended quote unavailable. Showing the regular quote.盘前盘后报价暂不可用，现显示常规时段报价。
Pre-market盘前
·
52w low52周低 $13.81high高 $25.78
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 14.18.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 14.18 下方。
As of 2026-10-26截至 2026-10-26
Company news公司新闻
The latest reporting最新报道
One story, with the reporting behind it.将同一事件汇总，保留各来源报道。
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
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Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-10-26
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
47
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-2.6% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-20.0% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
21th percentile第21百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-11-039
Estimates being cut预期下调
Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期
Post-earnings drift: -13.4% (20d)财报后漂移：-13.4%（20日）
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 29.3%
Valuation估值
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理| Multiple指标 | NCLH | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 16.24x | 19.27 | |
| P/B市净率 | 3.11x | 2.76 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 6.16% | 4.86 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | -17.02% | 5.67 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 2.45x | 10.97 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$9.8B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 50.3%
Earnings per share每股收益
$0.922025
20202025
Free cash flow自由现金流
-$1.2B2025
20202025
Operating margin营业利润率
15.9%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 5/8
Bankruptcy risk: distress zone破产风险：警戒区
Return on equity股本回报率 19%
Warning警示
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.08
Current ratio流动比率0.21
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$88.4M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+3.5%
Debt coming due到期债务
FY2025 10-KIn the 12-month bucket following fiscal period end 2025-12-31, it reported $875.9M due — about 6% of its disclosed principal.在财年期末 2025-12-31 之后12个月的区间内，已披露到期本金为 $875.9M，约占其披露本金的 6%。
All maturity buckets are measured from fiscal period end 2025-12-31, not from today.所有到期区间均从财年期末 2025-12-31 起算，而非从今天起算。
First 12 months after period end报告期末之后首12个月
$875.9M
Year 2第2年
$1.0B
Year 3第3年
$1.3B
Year 4第4年
$1.3B
Year 5第5年
$3.8B
After year 55年以后
$6.7B
Cash reported at 2025-12-31: $209893000.截至 2025-12-31 披露的现金：$209893000。 At the cash-burn pace reported over 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31, that cash represented about 2.2 months. This scenario excludes debt payments and future financing.按 2025-01-01 至 2025-12-31 期间披露的现金消耗速度，该现金约对应 2.2 个月。此情景不包括债务偿还与未来融资。
Cash reported at 2025-12-31 covers 24% of issuer-reported principal in the 12-month bucket following that fiscal period end.截至 2025-12-31 披露的现金可覆盖该财年期末之后12个月区间内发行人已披露到期本金的 24%。
Cash shortfall against that reported principal: $666006000相对该已披露本金的现金缺口：$666006000。
Sources and cash-flow calculation来源与现金流计算
Figures are XBRL facts from one filing — no two years are mixed. Filing数据取自同一份文件中的 XBRL 事实，不跨文件拼接。文件
0001104659-26-022067, period ending报告期截至 2025-12-31, unit单位 USD.
Cache acquired缓存获取时间: 2026-09-29T09:08:40.596686+00:00.
6/6 buckets reported.个区间有披露。
LongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInNextTwelveMonthsLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearTwoLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearThreeLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearFourLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearFiveLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalAfterYearFive
Annual period年度区间 2025-01-01 — 2025-12-31 · USD · 10-K · 0001104659-26-022067 · Filed提交日期 2026-03-02.
Cache acquired缓存获取时间: 2026-09-29T09:08:40.596686+00:00 · Evaluated as of评估截至 2026-10-26.
- Reported operating cash flow已披露经营活动现金流: $2089746000
- Reported equipment spending (capex outflow)已披露设备支出（资本开支流出）: $3259606000
- Derived free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex)计算所得自由现金流（经营现金流减资本开支）: $-1169860000
Cash is the reported balance at period end. The runway scenario holds this annual cash-flow pace constant and excludes debt payments, restricted-cash adjustments and future financing.现金为期末已披露余额。现金跑道情景假设本年度现金流速度保持不变，不包括债务偿还、受限现金调整与未来融资。
Research context only — reported figures from SEC filings, not a rating, a signal or investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 数据摘自 SEC 文件披露口径，不构成评级、信号或投资建议。
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Consumer Discretionary (Equal-Weight) theme — #25 of 49 themes「非必需消费（等权）」主题 — 49 个主题中第 25 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
UPTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN上涨趋势 → 未确认转向
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±3.61%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±8.07%
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-3.6%
Flow:资金流向： $1M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 5 fresh positions; P/C 1.8; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $1M；0DTE占0%；5个新建仓；看跌看涨比 1.8；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: fear偏斜：避险
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： +$29.2M net (7 buyers, 0 sellers)+$29.2M 净值（7 买家，0 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baupost Group (Klarman) | D | Adding加仓 | 3.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| Elliott Investment Management | D | Adding加仓 | 1.4% | 2026-06-30 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
NEARING A HIGH → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近高点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum curling up; 3-day crossed up; investor cycle failed (broke its start low); last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量开始上翘；3 日线向上交叉；投资者周期失败（跌破起始低点）；上一周期左移（见顶偏早））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Oct 9, 2026
UPTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN上涨趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Oct 7, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → UPTREND未确认转向 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Sep 25, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Sep 22, 2026
NCLH daily MACD crossed upNCLH 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $14.22.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$14.22。
Sep 18, 2026
NCLH printed a daily-cycle lowNCLH 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $14.12.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$14.12。
Sep 18, 2026
NCLH made a new 52-week lowNCLH 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $14.12.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$14.12。
Sep 16, 2026
NCLH StochRSI turned up from oversoldNCLH StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $14.53.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$14.53。
Sep 15, 2026
NCLH made a new 52-week lowNCLH 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $14.28.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$14.28。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 127 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is a holding company that is based in the United States and domiciled in Bermuda.挪威邮轮控股有限公司是一家注册于百慕大、总部位于美国的控股公司。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Above market高于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Above market高于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Receivables stretch
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 16.2× | 19.3× | 64% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 3.1× | 2.8× | 46% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 2.5× | 11.0× | 99% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 6.2% | 4.9% | 68% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 30.4% | 8.7% | 95% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
6/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
11/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
22/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
10/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#187 / 210
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +0.3% | -0.4% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +6.5% | -1.0% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -22.0% | +3.1% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -18.4% | +7.0% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -33.7% | +12.1% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -35.7% | +14.4% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
1.95
Volatility rank波动率分位
21th pctile
Short interest空头占比
21.3% of float
Market cap市值
$7B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$0.93
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-39.6%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $1.3B | $648M | $4.8B | $8.5B | $9.5B | $9.8B |
| EPS每股收益 | $-15.75 | $-12.33 | $-5.41 | $0.39 | $1.89 | $0.92 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $-3.5B | $-3.2B | $-1.6B | $-745M | $839M | $-1.2B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | — | -148.2% | 11.9% | 36.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% |
| Net margin净利率 | -313.5% | -695.5% | -46.9% | 1.9% | 9.6% | 4.3% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | -273.7% | -497.1% | -32.5% | -8.7% | 8.8% | -11.9% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Net income净利润
$423M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$2.1B
Total assets总资产
$22.5B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$2.2B
Shares outstanding总股本
0.46B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
19.2%
Return on assets资产回报率
1.9%
Profit growth利润增速
-53.5%
Asset growth资产增速
+12.9%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals near the peer median盈利质量：应计利润接近同业中位
- Working capital: receivables +1317% vs sales +668% — receivables outpacing sales, revenue-quality risk营运资本：应收 +1317% 对销售 +668%——应收快于销售，营收质量风险
- Pricing power: gross margin +190.8pts over 5 years定价能力：毛利率 5 年上升 190.8 个百分点
- Capital discipline: share count +44.2% over 6 years (dilution)资本纪律：股本 6 年增加 44.2%（稀释）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 0.29 — distress zone资产负债表：Altman Z 0.29——困境区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
47
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
13
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-0.4%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-2.6%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-20.0%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
Weekly周线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
CoiledCOILED
Days compressed已压缩天数
19
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
2/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $0.43 | $0.34 | +26.5% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.20 | $0.11 | +81.8% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.23 | $0.22 | +4.5% |
| Sep 2025 | $1.16 | $1.11 | +4.5% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
4
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-24.6%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
-4
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$16
Put wall看跌期权墙
$15
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$17
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$15
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
1%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-3.6%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
+0.0pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baupost Group (Klarman) | D | Adding增持 | 3.0% | $163M |
| Elliott Investment Management | D | Adding增持 | 1.4% | $310M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
2
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
2 : 0
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 11, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 2, 'holders_delta': 1, 'value_change_pct': 3716.3, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-16', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-15', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2]}{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 11, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 2, 'holders_delta': 1, 'value_change_pct': 3716.3, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-16', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-15', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
+$29.2M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
7 : 0
Short interest空头占流通盘
21.3%
Days to cover回补天数
4.5
Short interest change空头变化
+1.9%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。