Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Consumer Disc. / OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet · Consumer Disc.
OLLI US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Ollie's Bargain Outlet is an American discount store chain. It was founded in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania, in 1982 by Morton Bernstein, Mark Butler, Harry Coverman, and Oliver "Ollie" Rosenberg, the company's namesake.Ollie's Bargain Outlet 是一家美国折扣连锁店，1982年由Morton Bernstein、Mark Butler、Harry Coverman和以公司命名的Oliver "Ollie"…
Mid cap中盘 · $5B
Consumer Disc.
S&P 400标普400中盘
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
$73.56
+$1.64 · +2.28%
52w low52周低 $59.50high高 $140
Lagging — relative weakness落后 — 相对弱势
A normal mid-cycle dip below the 10-day average — the real cycle low isn't due for ~13+ trading days. Wait for support to hold, or for the next low to set up.这是跌破 10 日均线的正常周期中段回调——真正的周期低点要到约 13+ 个交易日后才会到来。等待支撑站稳，或等下一个低点构筑成形。
As of 2026-09-14截至 2026-09-14
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-09-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
48
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+1.8% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-20.2% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
81th percentile第81百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being cut预期下调
Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 4.9%
Valuation估值
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理| Multiple指标 | OLLI | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 18.75x | 18.75 | |
| P/B市净率 | 2.39x | 2.85 | |
| P/S市销率 | 1.70x | 1.21 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 5.33% | 4.95 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 4.31% | 5.89 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 1.64% | 4.53 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 12.05x | 10.97 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 23.18x | 16.17 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$2.6B2025
20192025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 13.5%
Earnings per share每股收益
$3.892025
20192025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 12.7%
Free cash flow自由现金流
$194.7M2025
20192025
Gross margin毛利率
40.5%
Operating margin营业利润率
11.2%
Net margin净利率
9.1%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
11.2%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 5/7
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Return on equity股本回报率 13%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.74
Current ratio流动比率2.41
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$73.8M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$13.1M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+0.1%
Debt coming due到期债务
SEC filingsSEC 文件We do not have an SEC filing record for this listing.我们目前没有该证券的 SEC 备案记录。
This panel only reads filings an issuer makes with the SEC, and this listing has not been matched to one.本面板仅读取发行人向 SEC 提交的文件，该证券尚未匹配到对应的备案主体。
Research context only — reported figures from SEC filings, not a rating, a signal or investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 数据摘自 SEC 文件披露口径，不构成评级、信号或投资建议。
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Retail theme — #35 of 49 themes「零售」主题 — 49 个主题中第 35 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
BUY ZONE → BOTTOMING买入区 → 筑底中
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.89%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±6.46%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$63
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-0.9%
Flow:资金流向： $0M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 2 fresh positions; P/C 0.85; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $0M；0DTE占0%；2个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.85；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: balanced偏斜：balanced
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$1.3M net (0 buyers, 1 sellers)-$1.3M 净值（0 买家，1 卖家）
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
GET READY. Mixed structure准备。结构混合
Sep 9, 2026
BUY ZONE → BOTTOMING买入区 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Sep 4, 2026
BOTTOMING → BUY ZONE筑底中 → 买入区
BUY买入
Sep 1, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Aug 31, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Aug 31, 2026
OLLI StochRSI turned up from oversoldOLLI StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $75.42.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$75.42。
Aug 27, 2026
OLLI printed a daily-cycle lowOLLI 打出日线周期低点
A confirmed local low — in this cycle framework the highest-odds long-entry window. $71.51.一个已确认的局部低点 — 在本周期框架中做多胜率最高的入场窗口。$71.51。
Aug 20, 2026
BUY ZONE → BOTTOMING买入区 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Aug 20, 2026
OLLI daily MACD crossed downOLLI 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $74.75.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$74.75。
Aug 19, 2026
BOTTOMING → BUY ZONE筑底中 → 买入区
BUY买入
Aug 19, 2026
OLLI StochRSI turned up from oversoldOLLI StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $79.39.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$79.39。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 256 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Ollie's Bargain Outlet is an American discount store chain. It was founded in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania, in 1982 by Morton Bernstein, Mark Butler, Harry Coverman, and Oliver "Ollie" Rosenberg, the company's namesake.Ollie's Bargain Outlet 是一家美国折扣连锁店，1982年由Morton Bernstein、Mark Butler、Harry Coverman和以公司命名的Oliver "Ollie"…
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Above market高于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Receivables stretch
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 18.8× | 18.8× | 50% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 2.4× | 2.9× | 56% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 1.7× | 1.2× | 37% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 12.1× | 11.0× | 43% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 5.3% | 5.0% | 55% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 6.6% | 8.6% | 32% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 1.6% | 4.5% | 16% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
4/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
21/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
4/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
5/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#206 / 211
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -3.9% | -0.8% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -6.0% | -1.1% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -11.6% | +3.3% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -32.7% | +15.7% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -33.9% | +12.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -44.1% | +17.2% |
| 3 Years近3年 | -5.7% | +77.4% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
0.83
Volatility rank波动率分位
81th pctile
Short interest空头占比
12.7% of float
Market cap市值
$5B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$3.92
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-46.8%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20192019 | 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $1.4B | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.8B | $2.1B | $2.6B |
| EPS每股收益 | $2.14 | $3.68 | $2.43 | $1.64 | $2.92 | $3.89 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $28M | $331M | $10M | $63M | $130M | $195M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 39.5% | 40.0% | 38.9% | 35.9% | 39.6% | 40.5% |
| Net margin净利率 | 10.0% | 13.4% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 2.0% | 18.3% | 0.6% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$2.6B
Gross profit毛利润
$1.1B
Net income净利润
$241M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$297M
Total assets总资产
$3.0B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$1.9B
Buybacks股票回购
$74M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.06B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
12.7%
Return on assets资产回报率
8.1%
Profit growth利润增速
+20.4%
Asset growth资产增速
+15.4%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: earnings cash-backed盈利质量：盈利有现金支撑
- Working capital: working capital roughly in line with sales营运资本：营运资本与销售大致同步
- Pricing power: gross margin +1.0pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年上升 1.0 个百分点
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 4.76 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 4.76——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
48
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
58
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-1.5%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+1.8%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-20.2%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down动能向下
3-day3日线
momentum up动能向上
Weekly周线
momentum up动能向上
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
expanding — range opening up扩张中 — 波幅放大
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
25/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $0.91 | $0.87 | +4.6% |
| Jan 2026 | $1.39 | $1.38 | +0.7% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.75 | $0.71 | +5.6% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.99 | $0.91 | +8.8% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
13
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-3.4%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
-9
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$85
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$63
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$80
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$70
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
+17.7%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
0%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-0.9%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
+0.0pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$1.3M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 1
Short interest空头占流通盘
12.7%
Days to cover回补天数
5.5
Short interest change空头变化
+8.0%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Sep · 75%
Weakest month最弱月份
Apr · 0%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 67% | +1.3% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 33% | -2.7% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 33% | -0.4% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 0% | -7.7% | 3 |
| May5月 | 67% | +5.6% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 67% | +17.5% | 3 |
| Jul7月 | 33% | -0.3% | 3 |
| Aug8月 | 50% | +3.4% | 4 |
| Sep9月 | 75% | +1.6% | 4 |
| Oct10月 | 33% | -5.3% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 67% | +2.2% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 67% | +4.0% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。