Stocks股票 / Consumer Disc. / OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet · Consumer Disc.
OLLI US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Ollie's Bargain Outlet is an American discount store chain. It was founded in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania, in 1982 by Morton Bernstein, Mark Butler, Harry Coverman, and Oliver "Ollie" Rosenberg, the company's namesake.Ollie's Bargain Outlet 是一家美国折扣连锁店，1982年由Morton Bernstein、Mark Butler、Harry Coverman和以公司命名的Oliver "Ollie"…
Mid cap中盘 · $4B
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
Consumer Disc.
S&P 400标普400中盘
$67.43
+$0.92 · +1.38%
52w low52周低 $59.50high高 $143
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 61.88.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 61.88 下方。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-07-21
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
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Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
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Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-07-21
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
42
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-10.8% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-33.7% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
96th percentile第96百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates roughly stable预期基本稳定
Valuation估值
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理| Multiple指标 | OLLI | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 17.19x | 19.97 | |
| P/B市净率 | 2.19x | 2.89 | |
| P/S市销率 | 1.56x | 1.21 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 5.82% | 4.57 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 4.71% | 5.73 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 1.79% | 4.27 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 10.98x | 11.39 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 21.25x | 16.57 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 13.5%
Earnings per share每股收益
5-yr growth5年复合增速 12.7%
Free cash flow自由现金流
Gross margin毛利率
40.5%
Operating margin营业利润率
11.2%
Net margin净利率
9.1%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
11.2%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 5/7
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Return on equity股本回报率 13%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.74
Current ratio流动比率2.41
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$73.8M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$13.1M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+0.1%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Retail theme — #24 of 46 themes「零售」主题 — 46 个主题中第 24 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
OLLI daily MACD crossed upOLLI 日线MACD上穿
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±3.07%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±6.87%
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-4.1%
Flow:资金流向： $1M premium traded; 34% 0DTE; 2 fresh positions; P/C 7.73; ~leans bearish/hedging (direction approx)成交权利金 $1M；0DTE占34%；2个新建仓；看跌看涨比 7.73；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: fear偏斜：避险
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$2.5M net (0 buyers, 4 sellers)-$2.5M 净值（0 买家，4 卖家）
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum negative; investor cycle failed (broke its start low); investor cycle overdue; last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. The daily cycle has also failed (broke its own start low), which tilts the odds toward failure here. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量为负；投资者周期失败（跌破起始低点）；投资者周期已逾期；上一周期左移（见顶偏早））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。日线周期同样已经失败（跌破其自身起始低点），此处概率更偏向失败。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Jul 20, 2026
OLLI daily MACD crossed upOLLI 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $67.43.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$67.43。
Jul 13, 2026
OLLI StochRSI turned up from oversoldOLLI StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $65.33.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$65.33。
Jul 8, 2026
OLLI RSI reached oversoldOLLI RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $61.88.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$61.88。
Jul 6, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 6, 2026
OLLI made a new 52-week lowOLLI 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $69.17.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$69.17。
Jul 1, 2026
OLLI broke down vs the marketOLLI 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $75.51.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$75.51。
Jun 30, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jun 30, 2026
OLLI StochRSI turned up from oversoldOLLI StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $76.88.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$76.88。
Jun 25, 2026
OLLI made a new 52-week lowOLLI 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $71.41.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$71.41。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 255 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Ollie's Bargain Outlet is an American discount store chain. It was founded in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania, in 1982 by Morton Bernstein, Mark Butler, Harry Coverman, and Oliver "Ollie" Rosenberg, the company's namesake.Ollie's Bargain Outlet 是一家美国折扣连锁店，1982年由Morton Bernstein、Mark Butler、Harry Coverman和以公司命名的Oliver "Ollie"…
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Receivables stretch
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 17.2× | 20.0× | 61% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 2.2× | 2.9× | 59% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 1.6× | 1.2× | 40% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 11.0× | 11.4× | 52% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 5.8% | 4.6% | 65% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 7.2% | 8.6% | 39% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 1.8% | 4.3% | 19% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
8/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
4/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
3/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
3/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#178 / 192
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +3.2% | -0.9% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -12.3% | -0.6% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -23.5% | +5.4% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -42.2% | +8.6% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -39.4% | +8.9% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -49.0% | +19.2% |
| 3 Years近3年 | -6.9% | +69.9% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
0.78
Volatility rank波动率分位
96th pctile
Short interest空头占比
10.4% of float
Market cap市值
$4B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$3.92
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-52.1%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20192019 | 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $1.4B | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.8B | $2.1B | $2.6B |
| EPS每股收益 | $2.14 | $3.68 | $2.43 | $1.64 | $2.92 | $3.89 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $28M | $331M | $10M | $63M | $130M | $195M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 39.5% | 40.0% | 38.9% | 35.9% | 39.6% | 40.5% |
| Net margin净利率 | 10.0% | 13.4% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 9.1% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 2.0% | 18.3% | 0.6% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$2.6B
Gross profit毛利润
$1.1B
Net income净利润
$241M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$297M
Total assets总资产
$3.0B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$1.9B
Buybacks股票回购
$74M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.06B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
12.7%
Return on assets资产回报率
8.1%
Profit growth利润增速
+20.4%
Asset growth资产增速
+15.4%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: earnings cash-backed盈利质量：盈利有现金支撑
- Working capital: working capital roughly in line with sales营运资本：营运资本与销售大致同步
- Pricing power: gross margin +1.0pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年上升 1.0 个百分点
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 4.55 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 4.55——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
42
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
81
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-2.8%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-10.8%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-33.7%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
3-day3日线
momentum down动能向下
Weekly周线
momentum down动能向下
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
expanding — range opening up扩张中 — 波幅放大
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
92/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
11
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mixed分歧
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-1.0%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+5
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$75
Put wall看跌期权墙
$65
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$70
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$55
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
0%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-4.1%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
-0.0pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$2.5M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 4
Short interest空头占流通盘
10.4%
Days to cover回补天数
2.7
Short interest change空头变化
+0.3%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
SPDR S&P RetailSPDR S&P Retail
accumulating持续增持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Sep · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Apr · 0%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 67% | +1.3% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 33% | -2.7% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 33% | -0.4% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 0% | -7.7% | 3 |
| May5月 | 67% | +5.6% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 50% | +17.5% | 4 |
| Jul7月 | 50% | +4.0% | 4 |
| Aug8月 | 33% | -7.2% | 3 |
| Sep9月 | 100% | +1.6% | 3 |
| Oct10月 | 33% | -5.3% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 67% | +2.2% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 67% | +4.0% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。