Stocks股票 / Tech / SMCI
Supermicro · Tech
SMCI US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Super Micro Computer, Inc., doing business as Supermicro, is an American information technology company based in San Jose, California.Super Micro Computer, Inc.，以Supermicro为品牌运营，是一家美国信息技术公司，总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞。
Large cap大盘 · $14B
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
Tech
S&P 500标普500
$23.83
-$0.35 · -1.45%
52w low52周低 $19.03high高 $62.37
Hold off — timing against you暂缓 — 时机不利
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-07-21
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
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Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
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Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-07-21
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
34
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-28.0% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-29.8% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
61th percentile第61百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-08-0415days to go天后公布
Estimates being cut预期下调
Valuation估值
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜| Multiple指标 | SMCI | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 13.61x | 40.25 | |
| P/B市净率 | 2.04x | 5.91 | |
| P/S市销率 | 0.65x | 4.85 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 7.35% | 2.18 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 10.74% | 3.07 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 7.03x | 28.83 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 9.31x | 29.15 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 45.8%
Earnings per share每股收益
5-yr growth5年复合增速 1.0%
Free cash flow自由现金流
Gross margin毛利率
11.1%
Operating margin营业利润率
5.7%
Net margin净利率
4.8%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
7.6%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 5/8
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Return on equity股本回报率 15%
Watch关注
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-4.00
Current ratio流动比率5.25
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$314.5M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+0.9%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Technology (Equal-Weight) theme — #23 of 46 themes「信息技术（等权）」主题 — 46 个主题中第 23 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
SMCI broke down vs the marketSMCI 相对市场走弱
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±6.74%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±15.07%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$24
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-2.3%
Flow:资金流向： $30M premium traded; 29% 0DTE; 87 fresh positions; P/C 0.35; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $30M；0DTE占29%；87个新建仓；看跌看涨比 0.35；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: balanced偏斜：balanced
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$3.5M net (0 buyers, 2 sellers)-$3.5M 净值（0 买家，2 卖家）
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID. Failed cycle — price broke below the low that started this cycle, which historically means the larger trend is rolling over (~80% of cases)回避。失败周期——价格跌破了启动本周期的低点，历史上这通常意味着更大的趋势正在掉头向下（约 80% 的情形）
Jul 16, 2026
SMCI broke down vs the marketSMCI 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $24.68.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$24.68。
Jul 10, 2026
SMCI weekly MACD crossed downSMCI 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Jul 9, 2026
SMCI StochRSI turned up from oversoldSMCI StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $28.24.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$28.24。
Jul 8, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Jul 7, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Jul 1, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A LOW筑底中 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Jun 26, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → BOTTOMING接近高点 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 83 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Super Micro Computer, Inc., doing business as Supermicro, is an American information technology company based in San Jose, California.Super Micro Computer, Inc.，以Supermicro为品牌运营，是一家美国信息技术公司，总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞。
Demand chain:需求链： Hyperscaler capex accelerating (+69% YoY to ~$379B) — the demand pool for AI accelerator / compute silicon云厂商资本开支加速（同比+69%，约 $379B）——AI 加速器／算力芯片的需求来源
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Above market高于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 13.6× | 40.2× | 91% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 2.0× | 5.9× | 86% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 0.7× | 4.8× | 94% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 7.0× | 28.8× | 94% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 7.3% | 2.2% | 93% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 11.6% | 4.2% | 90% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
21/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
30/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
49/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
6/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#131 / 184
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -13.8% | -0.9% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -22.3% | -0.6% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -16.2% | +5.4% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -26.1% | +8.6% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -23.0% | +8.9% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -54.0% | +19.2% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
3.44
Volatility rank波动率分位
61th pctile
Short interest空头占比
17.2% of float
Market cap市值
$14B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$1.75
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-60.7%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $3.3B | $3.6B | $5.2B | $7.1B | $15.0B | $22.0B |
| EPS每股收益 | $1.60 | $2.09 | $5.32 | $11.43 | $1.92 | $1.68 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $-75M | $65M | $-486M | $627M | $-2.6B | $1.5B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 15.8% | 15.0% | 15.4% | 18.0% | 13.8% | 11.1% |
| Net margin净利率 | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 4.8% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | -2.2% | 1.8% | -9.4% | 8.8% | -17.4% | 7.0% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$22.0B
Gross profit毛利润
$2.4B
Net income净利润
$1.0B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$1.7B
Total assets总资产
$28.0B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$7.0B
Shares outstanding总股本
0.60B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
15.0%
Return on assets资产回报率
3.7%
Profit growth利润增速
-9.0%
Asset growth资产增速
+187.8%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: earnings cash-backed盈利质量：盈利有现金支撑
- Working capital: inventory & receivables lean vs sales营运资本：存货与应收相对销售保持精简
- Pricing power: gross margin −4.7pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年下降 4.7 个百分点
- Capital discipline: share count +1033.7% over 6 years (dilution)资本纪律：股本 6 年增加 1033.7%（稀释）
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 4.17 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 4.17——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
34
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
1
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-16.2%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-28.0%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-29.8%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down动能向下
3-day3日线
momentum down动能向下
Weekly周线
momentum down — fresh downturn动能向下——刚刚转弱
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
69/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
2
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+4.6%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+0
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$26
Put wall看跌期权墙
$23
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$24
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$25
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$20
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
+1.1%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
1%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-2.3%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
-0.0pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$3.5M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 2
Short interest空头占流通盘
17.2%
Days to cover回补天数
1.6
Short interest change空头变化
+7.2%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
Roundhill Generative AI & TechRoundhill Generative AI & Tech
accumulating持续增持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。