Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Industrials / TDG
TransDigm Group · Industrials
TDG US listed · USD美股 · 美元
TransDigm Group Incorporated is an American publicly traded aerospace manufacturing company headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. TransDigm develops and manufactures engineered aerospace components.TransDigm Group Incorporated 是一家美国公开交易的航空航天制造公司，总部位于俄亥俄州克利夫兰。TransDigm开发并制造工程航空航天组件。
Large cap大盘 · $64B
Industrials
Distressed困境股
$1140.32
+$13.44 · +1.19%
52w low52周低 $1,112high高 $1,463
Hold off — timing against you暂缓 — 时机不利
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
As of 2026-09-14截至 2026-09-14
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-09-14
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
36
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-7.1% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-9.9% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
32th percentile第32百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being raised — 18 analysts预期上调 — 18 位分析师
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | TDG | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 31.05x | 28.15 | |
| P/S市销率 | 7.29x | 2.09 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 3.22% | 3.25 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 2.82% | 4.11 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 1.02% | 2.43 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 20.08x | 15.34 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 35.46x | 22.87 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$8.8B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 11.6%
Earnings per share每股收益
$32.082025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 29.1%
Free cash flow自由现金流
$1.8B2025
20202025
Gross margin毛利率
60.1%
Operating margin营业利润率
47.2%
Net margin净利率
23.5%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
23.1%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 6/8
Bankruptcy risk: distress zone破产风险：警戒区
Return on equity股本回报率 -22%
Watch关注
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA5.87
Current ratio流动比率3.21
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$500.0M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$152.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+0.7%
Debt coming due到期债务
SEC filingsSEC 文件We do not have an SEC filing record for this listing.我们目前没有该证券的 SEC 备案记录。
This panel only reads filings an issuer makes with the SEC, and this listing has not been matched to one.本面板仅读取发行人向 SEC 提交的文件，该证券尚未匹配到对应的备案主体。
Research context only — reported figures from SEC filings, not a rating, a signal or investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 数据摘自 SEC 文件披露口径，不构成评级、信号或投资建议。
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Industrials (Equal-Weight) theme — #44 of 49 themes「工业（等权）」主题 — 49 个主题中第 44 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
TDG made a new 52-week lowTDG 创52周新低
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±1.76%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±3.93%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$1196
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-2.5%
Flow:资金流向： $1M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 2 fresh positions; P/C 4.12; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $1M；0DTE占0%；2个新建仓；看跌看涨比 4.12；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: balanced偏斜：balanced
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$258.0M net (1 buyers, 4 sellers)-$258.0M 净值（1 买家，4 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Third Point (Loeb) | B | Adding加仓 | 2.2% | 2026-06-30 |
| AltaRock Partners | C | Holding持有 | 27.5% | 2026-06-30 |
| Lone Pine Capital | B | trimtrim | 0.2% | 2026-06-30 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID. Failed cycle — price broke below the low that started this cycle, which historically means the larger trend is rolling over (~80% of cases)回避。失败周期——价格跌破了启动本周期的低点，历史上这通常意味着更大的趋势正在掉头向下（约 80% 的情形）
Sep 9, 2026
TDG made a new 52-week lowTDG 创52周新低
Price reached a fresh 52-week low — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $1,125.68.价格创出52周新低 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$1,125.68。
Sep 9, 2026
TDG RSI reached oversoldTDG RSI进入超卖
RSI(14) crossed below 30 — washed out; context, not a timing trigger alone. $1,125.68.RSI(14)下穿30 — 超卖；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$1,125.68。
Aug 26, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Aug 25, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Aug 24, 2026
TDG StochRSI turned up from oversoldTDG StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $1,199.08.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$1,199.08。
Aug 21, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Aug 21, 2026
TDG weekly MACD crossed downTDG 周线MACD下穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned negative — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转负 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Aug 20, 2026
BOTTOMING → DOWNTREND筑底中 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Aug 19, 2026
TDG broke down vs the marketTDG 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $1,222.91.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$1,222.91。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 127 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
TransDigm Group Incorporated is an American publicly traded aerospace manufacturing company headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. TransDigm develops and manufactures engineered aerospace components.TransDigm Group Incorporated 是一家美国公开交易的航空航天制造公司，总部位于俄亥俄州克利夫兰。TransDigm开发并制造工程航空航天组件。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Above market高于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Above market高于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 31.1× | 28.1× | 44% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 7.3× | 2.1× | 4% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 20.1× | 15.3× | 30% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 3.2% | 3.2% | 49% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 3.2% | 5.9% | 18% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 1.0% | 2.4% | 22% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
20/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
23/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
21/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
22/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#204 / 264
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -1.9% | -0.8% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -7.7% | -1.1% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -9.2% | +3.3% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -6.1% | +15.7% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -16.1% | +12.2% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -11.8% | +17.2% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
0.71
Volatility rank波动率分位
32th pctile
Short interest空头占比
1.6% of float
Market cap市值
$64B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$36.73
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-21.4%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $5.1B | $4.8B | $5.4B | $6.6B | $7.9B | $8.8B |
| EPS每股收益 | $8.96 | $10.41 | $13.40 | $22.03 | $25.62 | $32.08 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $1.1B | $808M | $829M | $1.2B | $1.9B | $1.8B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 51.9% | 52.4% | 57.1% | 58.3% | 58.8% | 60.1% |
| Net margin净利率 | 13.7% | 14.2% | 16.0% | 19.7% | 21.6% | 23.5% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 21.7% | 16.8% | 15.3% | 18.8% | 23.7% | 20.6% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$8.8B
Gross profit毛利润
$5.3B
Net income净利润
$2.1B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$2.0B
Total assets总资产
$23.8B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$-9.3B
Dividends paid股息支出
$159M
Buybacks股票回购
$500M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.06B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
-22.4%
Return on assets资产回报率
8.7%
Profit growth利润增速
+21.0%
Asset growth资产增速
+10.4%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals elevated vs peers (earnings lean on non-cash items)盈利质量：应计利润高于同业（盈利依赖非现金项目）
- Working capital: receivables +125% vs sales +73% — receivables outpacing sales, revenue-quality risk营运资本：应收 +125% 对销售 +73%——应收快于销售，营收质量风险
- Pricing power: gross margin +8.2pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年上升 8.2 个百分点
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 1.78 — distress zone资产负债表：Altman Z 1.78——困境区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
36
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
67
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-3.5%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-7.1%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-9.9%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down动能向下
3-day3日线
momentum down动能向下
Weekly周线
momentum down动能向下
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
66/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
18
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+3.2%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+18
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$1,240
Put wall看跌期权墙
$1,110
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$1,196
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$1,150
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$1,110
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
-$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
-4.9%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
0%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-2.5%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
+0.0pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Third Point (Loeb) | B | Adding增持 | 2.2% | $105M |
| AltaRock Partners | C | Holding持有 | 27.5% | $1.2B |
| Lone Pine Capital | B | Trimming减持 | 0.2% | $38M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
3
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
1 : 1
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 12, 'holders_first': 2, 'holders_last': 3, 'holders_delta': 1, 'value_change_pct': -11.1, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '2026-08-17', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-15', 'holders_series': [2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3]}{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 12, 'holders_first': 2, 'holders_last': 3, 'holders_delta': 1, 'value_change_pct': -11.1, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '2026-08-17', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-15', 'holders_series': [2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$258.0M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
1 : 4
Short interest空头占流通盘
1.6%
Days to cover回补天数
2.5
Short interest change空头变化
+7.6%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。