Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Industrials / TDG
TransDigm Group · Industrials
TDG US listed · USD美股 · 美元
TransDigm Group Incorporated is an American publicly traded aerospace manufacturing company headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. TransDigm develops and manufactures engineered aerospace components.TransDigm Group Incorporated 是一家美国公开交易的航空航天制造公司，总部位于俄亥俄州克利夫兰。TransDigm开发并制造工程航空航天组件。
Large cap大盘 · $62B
Industrials
Distressed困境股
$1104.84
Regular quote常规时段报价
-$36.90 · -3.23%
Extended quote unavailable. Showing the regular quote.盘前盘后报价暂不可用，现显示常规时段报价。
Pre-market盘前
·
52w low52周低 $1,063high高 $1,463
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
Daily low forming, but the bigger trend is still bearish. Small size only; stop below 1082.6.日线低点正在形成，但大趋势仍偏空。只适合小仓位；止损设于 1082.6 下方。
As of 2026-10-26截至 2026-10-26
Company news公司新闻
The latest reporting最新报道
One story, with the reporting behind it.将同一事件汇总，保留各来源报道。
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
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Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-10-26
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
44
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-2.9% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-10.4% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
33th percentile第33百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-11-1117
Estimates being cut预期下调
Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期
Post-earnings drift: -6.8% (20d)财报后漂移：-6.8%（20日）
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 7.8%
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | TDG | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 30.08x | 27.98 | |
| P/S市销率 | 7.07x | 2.09 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 3.32% | 3.35 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 2.91% | 4.14 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 1.06% | 2.35 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 19.64x | 15.88 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 34.36x | 23.00 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$8.8B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 11.6%
Earnings per share每股收益
$32.082025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 29.1%
Free cash flow自由现金流
$1.8B2025
20202025
Gross margin毛利率
60.1%
Operating margin营业利润率
47.2%
Net margin净利率
23.5%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
23.1%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 6/8
Bankruptcy risk: distress zone破产风险：警戒区
Return on equity股本回报率 -22%
Watch关注
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA5.87
Current ratio流动比率3.21
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$500.0M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$152.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+0.7%
Debt coming due到期债务
FY2025 10-KIn the 12-month bucket following fiscal period end 2025-09-30, it reported $116.0M due — about 0% of its disclosed principal.在财年期末 2025-09-30 之后12个月的区间内，已披露到期本金为 $116.0M，约占其披露本金的 0%。
All maturity buckets are measured from fiscal period end 2025-09-30, not from today.所有到期区间均从财年期末 2025-09-30 起算，而非从今天起算。
First 12 months after period end报告期末之后首12个月
$116.0M
Year 2第2年
$116.0M
Year 3第3年
$2.2B
Year 4第4年
$4.8B
Year 5第5年
$3.5B
After year 55年以后
$18.5B
Cash reported at 2025-09-30: $2808000000.截至 2025-09-30 披露的现金：$2808000000。 Operating cash flow exceeded or equaled equipment spending over 2024-10-01 to 2025-09-30; no cash burn to measure.在 2024-10-01 至 2025-09-30 期间，经营现金流不低于设备支出，无可衡量的现金消耗。
Cash reported at 2025-09-30 covers 2421% of issuer-reported principal in the 12-month bucket following that fiscal period end.截至 2025-09-30 披露的现金可覆盖该财年期末之后12个月区间内发行人已披露到期本金的 2421%。
Cash shortfall against that reported principal: $0相对该已披露本金的现金缺口：$0。
Sources and cash-flow calculation来源与现金流计算
Figures are XBRL facts from one filing — no two years are mixed. Filing数据取自同一份文件中的 XBRL 事实，不跨文件拼接。文件
0001260221-25-000081, period ending报告期截至 2025-09-30, unit单位 USD.
Cache acquired缓存获取时间: 2026-10-03T08:39:05.796847+00:00.
6/6 buckets reported.个区间有披露。
LongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInNextTwelveMonthsLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearTwoLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearThreeLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearFourLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearFiveLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalAfterYearFive
Annual period年度区间 2024-10-01 — 2025-09-30 · USD · 10-K · 0001260221-25-000081 · Filed提交日期 2025-11-12.
Cache acquired缓存获取时间: 2026-10-03T08:39:05.796847+00:00 · Evaluated as of评估截至 2026-10-26.
- Reported operating cash flow已披露经营活动现金流: $2038000000
- Reported equipment spending (capex outflow)已披露设备支出（资本开支流出）: $222000000
- Derived free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex)计算所得自由现金流（经营现金流减资本开支）: $1816000000
Cash is the reported balance at period end. The runway scenario holds this annual cash-flow pace constant and excludes debt payments, restricted-cash adjustments and future financing.现金为期末已披露余额。现金跑道情景假设本年度现金流速度保持不变，不包括债务偿还、受限现金调整与未来融资。
Research context only — reported figures from SEC filings, not a rating, a signal or investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 数据摘自 SEC 文件披露口径，不构成评级、信号或投资建议。
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Industrials (Equal-Weight) theme — #31 of 49 themes「工业（等权）」主题 — 49 个主题中第 31 位
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed +12.4%空头仓位变动 +12.4%
Technical技术面
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net short gamma — price moves may amplify做市商净持有负伽玛，价格波动可能被放大
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.32%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±5.19%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$1187
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-2.7%
Flow:资金流向： $1M premium traded; 0% 0DTE; 2 fresh positions; P/C 4.12; ~leans bullish (direction approx)成交权利金 $1M；0DTE占0%；2个新建仓；看跌看涨比 4.12；≈偏看涨（方向近似）
Skew: balanced偏斜：balanced
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$118.1M net (0 buyers, 2 sellers)-$118.1M 净值（0 买家，2 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Third Point (Loeb) | B | Adding加仓 | 2.2% | 2026-06-30 |
| AltaRock Partners | C | Holding持有 | 27.5% | 2026-06-30 |
| Lone Pine Capital | B | trimtrim | 0.2% | 2026-06-30 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
BOTTOMING → UNCONFIRMED TURN筑底中 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY. A daily bottoming setup is forming (swing low in, momentum turned up) — but the higher timeframes haven't confirmed it: the bigger picture is still bearish (weekly momentum curling up; 3-day crossed up; investor cycle failed (broke its start low); investor cycle overdue; last cycle left-translated (topped early)). This is an UNCONFIRMED TURN, not a confirmed buy. Weekly confirmation lags price, so this exact reading covers BOTH bounces that fail AND the first leg of a genuine new cycle — you can't tell which in real time, so treat it as a risk/size signal, not a direction call. Measured: weekly-unconfirmed bottoming setups held the low ~49% of the time vs ~68% once the weekly turns up. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell高风险 · 仅限灵活操作。正在形成日线筑底形态（摆动低点已现、动量转向上行）——但更高周期尚未确认：大局仍偏空（周线动量开始上翘；3 日线向上交叉；投资者周期失败（跌破起始低点）；投资者周期已逾期；上一周期左移（见顶偏早））。这是「未确认转向」，并非已确认的买入。周线确认滞后于价格，因此同样的读数既涵盖最终失败的反弹，也涵盖真正新周期的第一段——实时无法判定属于哪一种，故应将其视为风险/仓位信号，而非方向判断。实测：周线未确认的筑底形态约 49% 守住低点，周线转向后升至约 68%。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Oct 19, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Oct 8, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近低点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Oct 6, 2026
NEARING A LOW → UPTREND接近低点 → 上涨趋势
HOLD持有
Oct 1, 2026
DOWNTREND → NEARING A LOW下跌趋势 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Sep 29, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Sep 29, 2026
TDG broke down vs the marketTDG 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $1,099.79.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$1,099.79。
Sep 23, 2026
TDG daily MACD crossed upTDG 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $1,105.28.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$1,105.28。
Sep 21, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Sep 21, 2026
TDG StochRSI turned up from oversoldTDG StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $1,109.65.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$1,109.65。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 141 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
TransDigm Group Incorporated is an American publicly traded aerospace manufacturing company headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. TransDigm develops and manufactures engineered aerospace components.TransDigm Group Incorporated 是一家美国公开交易的航空航天制造公司，总部位于俄亥俄州克利夫兰。TransDigm开发并制造工程航空航天组件。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Above market高于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Above market高于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 30.1× | 28.0× | 44% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 7.1× | 2.1× | 6% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 19.6× | 15.9× | 30% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 3.3% | 3.4% | 49% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 3.3% | 5.8% | 18% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 1.1% | 2.4% | 23% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
22/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
24/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
40/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
18/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#219 / 263
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -3.0% | -0.4% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +-0.0% | -1.0% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -10.7% | +3.1% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -3.8% | +7.0% |
| Year to date年初至今 | -18.7% | +12.1% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -18.2% | +14.4% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
0.73
Volatility rank波动率分位
33th pctile
Short interest空头占比
2.1% of float
Market cap市值
$62B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$36.73
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-23.8%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $5.1B | $4.8B | $5.4B | $6.6B | $7.9B | $8.8B |
| EPS每股收益 | $8.96 | $10.41 | $13.40 | $22.03 | $25.62 | $32.08 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $1.1B | $808M | $829M | $1.2B | $1.9B | $1.8B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 51.9% | 52.4% | 57.1% | 58.3% | 58.8% | 60.1% |
| Net margin净利率 | 13.7% | 14.2% | 16.0% | 19.7% | 21.6% | 23.5% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 21.7% | 16.8% | 15.3% | 18.8% | 23.7% | 20.6% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$8.8B
Gross profit毛利润
$5.3B
Net income净利润
$2.1B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$2.0B
Total assets总资产
$23.8B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$-9.3B
Dividends paid股息支出
$159M
Buybacks股票回购
$500M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.06B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
-22.4%
Return on assets资产回报率
8.7%
Profit growth利润增速
+21.0%
Asset growth资产增速
+10.4%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals elevated vs peers (earnings lean on non-cash items)盈利质量：应计利润高于同业（盈利依赖非现金项目）
- Working capital: receivables +125% vs sales +73% — receivables outpacing sales, revenue-quality risk营运资本：应收 +125% 对销售 +73%——应收快于销售，营收质量风险
- Pricing power: gross margin +8.2pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年上升 8.2 个百分点
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 1.74 — distress zone资产负债表：Altman Z 1.74——困境区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
44
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
15
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-0.7%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-2.9%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-10.4%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
Weekly周线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
Fired_DownFIRED_DOWN
Days compressed已压缩天数
9
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
12/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $9.97 | $9.59 | +4.0% |
| Mar 2026 | $9.51 | $8.60 | +10.6% |
| Dec 2025 | $7.91 | $7.35 | +7.6% |
| Sep 2025 | $10.47 | $9.61 | +8.9% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
5
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+3.8%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+1
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$1,150
Put wall看跌期权墙
$1,080
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$1,187
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$1,200
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$1,000
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
-7.5%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
0%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-2.7%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
+0.0pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Third Point (Loeb) | B | Adding增持 | 2.2% | $105M |
| AltaRock Partners | C | Holding持有 | 27.5% | $1.2B |
| Lone Pine Capital | B | Trimming减持 | 0.2% | $38M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
3
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
1 : 1
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 11, 'holders_first': 2, 'holders_last': 3, 'holders_delta': 1, 'value_change_pct': -23.7, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-16', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-15', 'holders_series': [2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3]}{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 11, 'holders_first': 2, 'holders_last': 3, 'holders_delta': 1, 'value_change_pct': -23.7, 'from_period': '2023-09-30', 'to_period': '2026-03-31', 'available_on': '2026-05-16', 'available_on_first': '2023-11-15', 'holders_series': [2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$118.1M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 2
Short interest空头占流通盘
2.1%
Days to cover回补天数
2.7
Short interest change空头变化
+12.4%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
VanEck Morningstar Wide MoatVanEck Morningstar Wide Moat
accumulating持续增持
SPDR S&P Aerospace & DefenseSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense
accumulating持续增持
Invesco Aerospace & DefenseInvesco Aerospace & Defense
accumulating持续增持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。