Stocks股票 / Consumer Disc. / TOL
Toll Brothers · Consumer Disc.
TOL US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Toll Brothers, Inc. is an American homebuilding company that builds, markets, and finances for residential and commercial properties in the United States.Toll Brothers, Inc. 是一家美国住宅建筑公司，在美国从事住宅和商业地产的开发、营销与融资。
Large cap大盘 · $14B
Rate-sensitive利率敏感
Consumer Disc.
S&P 400标普400中盘
$146.94
-$3.82 · -2.53%
52w low52周低 $114high高 $168
Neutral — no clear edge中性 — 无明显优势
Setup almost complete — likely buy trigger in ~1–3 trading days if it closes back above its 10-day average.形态接近完成——若收盘重新站上 10 日均线，预计将在约 1–3 个交易日内出现买入触发。
Engine read引擎解读 · 2026-07-21
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
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Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-07-21
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
45
Neutral zone中性区域
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+1.4% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+3.6% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
77th percentile第77百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
Estimates being cut预期下调
Valuation估值
Looks cheap vs sector相对行业偏便宜| Multiple指标 | TOL | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 10.35x | 19.97 | |
| P/B市净率 | 1.66x | 2.89 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 9.67% | 4.57 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | 7.37% | 5.73 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 4.67% | 4.27 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 7.03x | 11.39 | |
| P/FCF市值/自由现金流 | 13.57x | 16.57 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
5-yr growth5年复合增速 9.2%
Earnings per share每股收益
5-yr growth5年复合增速 31.7%
Free cash flow自由现金流
Operating margin营业利润率
15.7%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 3/7
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Return on equity股本回报率 16%
Watch关注
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA-0.70
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$651.0M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$30.8M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-5.0%
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Sector / Theme行业/主题
Housing Chain theme — #25 of 46 themes「住房产业链」主题 — 46 个主题中第 25 位
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Insider cluster activity内部人集中交易
Technical技术面
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
Options positioning期权持仓
as of last close截至上一收盘Market makers are net long gamma — price pinned near current level做市商净持有正伽玛，价格倾向于在当前水平附近震荡
Expected daily move预期日波动
±2.47%
Expected weekly move预期周波动
±5.52%
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$141
25d risk reversal25d风险逆转
-3.8%
Flow:资金流向： $1M premium traded; 16% 0DTE; 3 fresh positions; P/C 4.02; ~leans bearish/hedging (direction approx)成交权利金 $1M；0DTE占16%；3个新建仓；看跌看涨比 4.02；≈偏看跌/对冲（方向近似）
Skew: fear偏斜：避险
Call and put walls are plotted on the Trade levels ladder →看涨/看跌期权墙已标注在「交易点位」阶梯上 →
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$12.5M net (0 buyers, 3 sellers)-$12.5M 净值（0 买家，3 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basswood Capital Management | B | trimtrim | 1.8% | 2026-03-31 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
BUY ZONE → BOTTOMING买入区 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP. Buyers rejected the 2026-07-08 low (swing low printed) but price hasn't reclaimed its 10-day average — first box ticked, not all买入预备。买方拒绝了 2026-07-08 的低点（摆动低点已现），但价格尚未收复 10 日均线——第一项条件达成，并非全部
Jul 15, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Jul 14, 2026
TOL StochRSI turned up from oversoldTOL StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $152.53.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$152.53。
Jul 6, 2026
TOL daily MACD crossed downTOL 日线MACD下穿
The daily MACD histogram turned negative — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $154.86.日线MACD柱状图转负 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$154.86。
Jul 1, 2026
BUY ZONE → BOTTOMING买入区 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Jun 30, 2026
UPTREND → BUY ZONE上涨趋势 → 买入区
BUY买入
Jun 23, 2026
Golden cross on TOLTOL 金叉
The 50-day average crossed above the 200-day — a slow, widely-watched bullish trend signal. $150.70.50日均线上穿200日均线 — 一个滞后但广受关注的看多趋势信号。$150.70。
Jun 19, 2026
TOL weekly MACD crossed upTOL 周线MACD上穿
The weekly MACD histogram turned positive — the slower, less-whippy momentum read.周线MACD柱状图转正 — 更慢、更少来回的动量信号。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 268 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Toll Brothers, Inc. is an American homebuilding company that builds, markets, and finances for residential and commercial properties in the United States.Toll Brothers, Inc. 是一家美国住宅建筑公司，在美国从事住宅和商业地产的开发、营销与融资。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Above market高于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Above market高于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 10.3× | 20.0× | 84% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 1.7× | 2.9× | 74% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 7.0× | 11.4× | 78% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 9.7% | 4.6% | 87% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 8.0% | 8.6% | 45% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 4.7% | 4.3% | 54% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
71/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
41/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
35/100 — middle of the pack居中
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
61/100 — middle of the pack居中
Rank in sector行业内排名
#21 / 192
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -0.8% | -0.9% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -5.4% | -0.6% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -0.9% | +5.4% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -0.9% | +8.6% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +8.8% | +8.9% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +26.4% | +19.2% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +90.9% | +69.9% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
1.21
Volatility rank波动率分位
77th pctile
Short interest空头占比
4.7% of float
Market cap市值
$14B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$14.20
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-11.4%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $7.1B | $8.8B | $10.3B | $10.0B | $10.8B | $11.0B |
| EPS每股收益 | $3.40 | $6.63 | $10.90 | $12.36 | $15.01 | $13.49 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $899M | $1.2B | $915M | $1.2B | $937M | $1.0B |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 20.0% | 22.1% | 24.2% | 26.4% | 27.9% | 25.1% |
| Net margin净利率 | 6.3% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 13.7% | 14.5% | 12.3% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 12.7% | 14.1% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 9.4% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Net income净利润
$1.3B
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$1.1B
Total assets总资产
$14.4B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$8.4B
Buybacks股票回购
$651M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.09B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
16.0%
Return on assets资产回报率
9.3%
Profit growth利润增速
-14.3%
Asset growth资产增速
+5.9%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 6 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 6 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Pricing power: gross margin +5.1pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年上升 5.1 个百分点
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 3.31 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 3.31——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
45
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
14
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-4.8%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+1.4%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+3.6%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
below signal位于信号线下方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum down动能向下
3-day3日线
momentum up动能向上
Weekly周线
momentum up动能向上
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
68/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
14
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-0.0%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+4
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Options — full detail期权持仓 — 完整明细
Dealer positioning map做市商持仓地图
Call wall看涨期权墙
$165
Put wall看跌期权墙
$145
Gamma flip伽玛翻转位
$141
Upside magnet上方磁吸位
$160
Downside magnet下方磁吸位
$150
Net dealer gamma做市商净伽玛
+$0.0B
Distance to flip距翻转位
+6.6%
Walls and magnets are strikes with heavy open interest — price often slows or gravitates there.期权墙与磁吸位是未平仓集中的行权价 — 价格常在附近减速或被吸引。
Volatility pricing波动率定价
Implied volatility (30d)隐含波动率（30天）
0%
25-delta risk reversal25-delta风险逆转
-3.8%
Call-put IV spread看涨-看跌IV价差
+0.0pp
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basswood Capital Management | B | Trimming减持 | 1.8% | $39M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
1
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
0 : 1
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 14, 'holders_first': 2, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -2, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-05-15', 'holders_series': [2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0]}{'direction': 'distributing', 'n_quarters': 14, 'holders_first': 2, 'holders_last': 0, 'holders_delta': -2, 'value_change_pct': -100.0, 'from_period': '2023-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '', 'available_on_first': '2023-05-15', 'holders_series': [2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$12.5M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 3
Short interest空头占流通盘
4.7%
Days to cover回补天数
3.1
Short interest change空头变化
-1.1%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
SPDR S&P HomebuildersSPDR S&P Homebuilders
accumulating持续增持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Aug · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Oct · 0%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 67% | +7.3% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 67% | +8.8% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 33% | -5.2% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 33% | -3.1% | 3 |
| May5月 | 67% | +2.9% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 75% | +9.5% | 4 |
| Jul7月 | 75% | +4.6% | 4 |
| Aug8月 | 100% | +2.4% | 3 |
| Sep9月 | 33% | -0.4% | 3 |
| Oct10月 | 0% | -3.7% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 100% | +12.5% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 33% | -3.1% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。