Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Tech / TWLO
Twilio · Tech
TWLO US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Twilio Inc. is an American cloud communications company based in San Francisco, California, which provides programmable communication tools for making and receiving phone calls, sending and receiving text messages, and performing other communication functions using its web service APIs.Twilio Inc. 是一家美国云通信公司，总部位于加利福尼亚州旧金山，通过其网络服务API提供用于拨打和接听电话、发送和接收短信以及执行其他通信功能的可编程通信工具。
Large cap大盘 · $42B
Tech
S&P 400标普400中盘
High-beta momentum高贝塔动量
$275.80
-$23.86 · -7.96%
52w low52周低 $97.92high高 $307
Extended — wait for a pullback过度拉伸 — 等待回撤
The low is already in and price has run. Wait for a pullback; hold if you're long.低点已经形成、价格已经拉升。等待回调再入场；若已持有可继续持有。
As of 2026-09-29截至 2026-09-29
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-09-29
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
62
Elevated偏高
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+21.3% above上方
Uptrend intact趋势完好
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+60.2% above上方
Long trend up长期向上
Volatility波动率
63th percentile第63百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-10-2931
Estimates being raised — 28 analysts预期上调 — 28 位分析师
Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 33.3%
Valuation估值
Expensive vs sector相对行业偏贵| Multiple指标 | TWLO | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 1236.32x | 41.39 | |
| P/B市净率 | 5.37x | 5.73 | |
| P/S市销率 | 8.30x | 4.81 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 0.08% | 1.96 | |
| Shareholder yield股东收益率 | 2.07% | 2.05 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 119.87x | 27.85 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$5.1B2025
20202025
5-yr growth5年复合增速 23.5%
Earnings per share每股收益
$0.212025
20202025
Free cash flow自由现金流
-$104.2M2021
20202025
Gross margin毛利率
48.9%
Operating margin营业利润率
3.1%
Net margin净利率
0.7%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
19.8%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 5/9
Bankruptcy risk: safe zone破产风险：安全区
Return on equity股本回报率 0%
Clean稳健
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA0.88
Current ratio流动比率4.03
Capital allocation资本配置
Buybacks (TTM)回购（TTM）$868.9M
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$600.4M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）-0.1%
Debt coming due到期债务
SEC filingsSEC 文件Debt schedule not loaded yet.到期债务尚未加载。
This panel is still catching up to the SEC filings for this listing. Check back soon — nothing is being estimated in its place.本面板仍在同步该证券的 SEC 文件，请稍后再查看；此处不作任何估算替代。
A cash-flow scenario is unavailable until the filing inputs are verified.报告数据核实前，现金流情景暂不可用。
Capital-need coverage is not available for this issuer yet.该发行人的资本需求覆盖信息暂不可用。
Reported facts remain separate from the cash-flow scenario until identity and filing provenance are confirmed.在确认身份与报告来源之前，已披露事实与现金流情景保持分离。
Research context only — reported figures from SEC filings, not a rating, a signal or investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 数据摘自 SEC 文件披露口径，不构成评级、信号或投资建议。
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Macro宏观
Rate risk runs through its market / growth beta, not a distinct duration leg.其利率风险通过市场／成长beta体现，并无独立的久期暴露。
Positioning持仓
Short interest changed +20.4%空头仓位变动 +20.4%
Technical技术面
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
Ownership & smart money持仓与聪明钱
13FInsider activity:内部人动向： -$344.6M net (0 buyers, 5 sellers)-$344.6M 净值（0 买家，5 卖家）
Concentrated ownership集中持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | As of截至 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Capital Partners | B | New position新建仓 | 3.7% | 2026-06-30 |
| Whale Rock Capital | A | New position新建仓 | 1.4% | 2026-06-30 |
| Polen Capital Management | C | Adding加仓 | 0.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| Sachem Head Capital | D | trimtrim | 2.6% | 2026-06-30 |
| Duquesne Family Office (Druckenmiller) | C | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| Viking Global (Halvorsen) | B | exitexit | 0.0% | 2026-06-30 |
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS. A daily bottoming setup did fire (swing low in, momentum turned up), but it's LATE — price is already extended above the cycle low (formed ~23 day(s) ago @ 222.59) and momentum is fading — the daily momentum is already rolling over. A momentum cross is a LAGGING confirmation: after a vertical run it only triggers once the move is mature, so the bottoming entry has already passed. This is a chase, not a fresh buy. Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell止盈。日线筑底形态确实已经触发（摆动低点出现、动量转向上行），但为时已晚——价格已显著高于周期低点（约 23 天前形成 @ 222.59）且动量正在衰竭——日线动量已开始掉头向下。动量交叉属于滞后确认：在垂直拉升之后，只有当走势已经成熟时才会触发，因此筑底入场早已错过。这是追高，而非新的买入。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Sep 23, 2026
BOTTOMING → NEARING A HIGH筑底中 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Sep 22, 2026
TWLO RSI reached overboughtTWLO RSI进入超买
RSI(14) crossed above 70 — stretched to the upside; context, not a timing trigger alone. $284.53.RSI(14)上穿70 — 上行过度；仅作背景，单独不构成择时。$284.53。
Sep 21, 2026
TWLO made a new 52-week highTWLO 创52周新高
Price reached a fresh 52-week high — a momentum / trend extreme the whole market watches. $266.06.价格创出52周新高 — 全市场关注的动量/趋势极值。$266.06。
Sep 17, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → BOTTOMING未确认转向 → 筑底中
BUY SETUP买入预备
Sep 17, 2026
TWLO daily MACD crossed upTWLO 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $246.24.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$246.24。
Sep 15, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近高点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Sep 15, 2026
TWLO took relative-strength leadershipTWLO 取得相对强弱领先
Relative strength vs SPY crossed above the 90th percentile of the last 90 days — leadership tends to persist. $242.16.相对标普500的强弱上穿近90日的第90百分位 — 领先往往延续。$242.16。
Sep 15, 2026
TWLO StochRSI turned up from oversoldTWLO StochRSI自超卖区上行
StochRSI popped back above 20 — the earliest oscillator heads-up that downside momentum is easing. $242.16.StochRSI重回20上方 — 下行动量趋缓的最早预警。$242.16。
Sep 14, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A HIGH未确认转向 → 接近高点
TAKE PROFITS止盈
Sep 8, 2026
NEARING A HIGH → UNCONFIRMED TURN接近高点 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 255 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Twilio Inc. is an American cloud communications company based in San Francisco, California, which provides programmable communication tools for making and receiving phone calls, sending and receiving text messages, and performing other communication functions using its web service APIs.Twilio Inc. 是一家美国云通信公司，总部位于加利福尼亚州旧金山，通过其网络服务API提供用于拨打和接听电话、发送和接收短信以及执行其他通信功能的可编程通信工具。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Below market低于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Above market高于市场
Investment资本投入
Above market高于市场
Shareholder payout股东回报
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Below market低于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Below market低于市场
Watch items — what could change the story关注项 — 可能改变故事的因素
- Margin compression despite revenue growth
- Capital intensity rising
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 1236.3× | 41.4× | 2% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 5.4× | 5.7× | 52% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 8.3× | 4.8× | 30% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 119.9× | 27.9× | 9% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 0.1% | 2.0% | 17% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | 2.4% | 3.8% | 32% |
| Shareholder yield股东综合回报率 | 2.1% | 2.0% | 51% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
94/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
96/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
97/100 — stronger than most强于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
97/100 — stronger than most强于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#39 / 221
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | +13.1% | +1.3% |
| 1 Month近1月 | +20.7% | +0.9% |
| 3 Months近3月 | +44.0% | +6.1% |
| 6 Months近6月 | +129.9% | +22.3% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +99.3% | +13.8% |
| 1 Year近1年 | +172.2% | +18.5% |
| 3 Years近3年 | +373.2% | +87.8% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
1.39
Volatility rank波动率分位
63th pctile
Short interest空头占比
3.5% of float
Market cap市值
$42B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$0.22
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-8.0%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20252025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $1.8B | $2.8B | $3.8B | $4.2B | $4.5B | $5.1B |
| EPS每股收益 | $-3.35 | $-5.45 | $-6.86 | $-5.54 | $-0.66 | $0.21 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $7M | $-104M | — | — | — | — |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 52.0% | 48.9% | 47.4% | 49.2% | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| Net margin净利率 | -27.9% | -33.4% | -32.8% | -24.4% | -2.5% | 0.7% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 0.4% | -3.7% | — | — | — | — |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$5.1B
Gross profit毛利润
$2.5B
Net income净利润
$34M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$1.0B
Total assets总资产
$9.8B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$7.8B
Buybacks股票回购
$869M
Shares outstanding总股本
0.15B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
0.4%
Return on assets资产回报率
0.3%
Asset growth资产增速
-1.0%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: earnings cash-backed盈利质量：盈利有现金支撑
- Working capital: inventory & receivables lean vs sales营运资本：存货与应收相对销售保持精简
- Pricing power: gross margin −3.1pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年下降 3.1 个百分点
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 12.65 — safe zone资产负债表：Altman Z 12.65——安全区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
62
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
29
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
+11.8%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
+21.3%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
+60.2%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
in effect生效中
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum up — fresh upturn动能向上——刚刚转强
Weekly周线
momentum up动能向上
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
88/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $0.72 | $0.59 | +22.0% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.81 | $0.56 | +44.6% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.49 | $0.46 | +6.5% |
| Sep 2025 | $0.56 | $0.35 | +60.0% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
28
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly raising多数上调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
+2.4%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
+22
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Tracked funds holding it跟踪基金持仓
| Fund基金 | Grade评级 | Latest move最新动作 | % of book组合占比 | Position市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Capital Partners | B | New position新建仓 | 3.7% | $381M |
| Whale Rock Capital | A | New position新建仓 | 1.4% | $170M |
| Polen Capital Management | C | Adding增持 | 0.0% | $1M |
| Sachem Head Capital | D | Trimming减持 | 2.6% | $128M |
| Duquesne Family Office (Druckenmiller) | C | Exited清仓 | 0.0% | $23M |
| Viking Global (Halvorsen) | B | Exited清仓 | 0.0% | $57M |
Fund positioning基金持仓概览
Tracked funds in the name持有该股的跟踪基金
6
Buying vs selling买入vs卖出
3 : 3
Quarterly trend季度趋势
{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 10, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 4, 'holders_delta': 3, 'value_change_pct': 237.3, 'from_period': '2024-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '2026-08-15', 'available_on_first': '2024-05-16', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4]}{'direction': 'accumulating', 'n_quarters': 10, 'holders_first': 1, 'holders_last': 4, 'holders_delta': 3, 'value_change_pct': 237.3, 'from_period': '2024-03-31', 'to_period': '2026-06-30', 'available_on': '2026-08-15', 'available_on_first': '2024-05-16', 'holders_series': [1, 1, 1, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4]}
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Insider net buying (6 months)内部人净买入（6个月）
-$344.6M
Insider buyers vs sellers内部人买家vs卖家
0 : 5
Short interest空头占流通盘
3.5%
Days to cover回补天数
3.5
Short interest change空头变化
+20.4%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
First Trust Cloud ComputingFirst Trust Cloud Computing
trimming减持
Global X AI & TechnologyGlobal X AI & Technology
trimming减持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Dec · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Jan · 33%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 33% | -6.9% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 33% | -14.8% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 67% | +3.1% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 67% | +1.3% | 3 |
| May5月 | 67% | +20.1% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 67% | +5.8% | 3 |
| Jul7月 | 67% | +4.5% | 3 |
| Aug8月 | 75% | +7.2% | 4 |
| Sep9月 | 50% | +4.2% | 4 |
| Oct10月 | 67% | +22.4% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 67% | +23.9% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 100% | +9.5% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。