2Q26 Big Beat; Stronger Outlook for Longer TARGET ESTIMATE CHANGE
China (PRC) | Electronic Components Equity Research Shengyi Technology August 15, 2026
2Q26 Big Beat; Stronger Outlook for Longer TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGE
RATING BUY 2Q26 big beat across PnL with continued CCL price hike and product mix optimization from lifting AI mix benefiting ASP. We see >7m sheets/month PRICE Rmb143.21^
Rmb185.00 (Rmb100.00) RCCL capacity expansion in coming years on top of 8-9m in 2025 implying PRICE TARGET | % TO PT | +29% >1m additional capacity per year, and we expect its M6+ capacity/rev mix to 52W HIGH-LOW Rmb191.88 - Rmb40.29 rise from 5-10%/~20% in 2025 to ~30%/70% in total CCL by 2030. Reiterate FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 46.1% | 10,393.61 BUY. MARKET CAP RMB347.9B | CNY347.9B
TICKER 600183 CH 2Q26 big beat. Sytech's 2Q26 rev increased 54% YoY, beating JEFe/cons by 13% driven by ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise continued CCL price amid industrywide supply tightness and product mix optimization. GM noted. rose 5.8ppt YoY to 32.6%, beating JEFe/cons by 4.2ppt thanks to lifting ASP, and CCL GM reached 29.2% in 1H26 (likely >30% in Q2), gradually narrowing the gap with EMC (33.9% in Q2) as the leading peer. EBIT increased 126% YoY, beating JEFe/cons by 32%. NP increased FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS
147% YoY to Rmb2,129 (at the top of prelim range), beating JEF/cons by 23%.
REV +13% +23% +3% +10% Continued tailwinds from both CCL price hike and lifting AI mix. To cope with rising upstream EPS +45% +52% +29% +31% material costs such as fiberglass cloth and copper foil, we have seen most CCL vendors continuously raising price quotations since late last year. For example, the prices of FR-4 2026 (RMB) Q1A Q2A Q3A Q4A FY from most vendors are now at >Rmb200/sheet, basically on par with the previous price level EPS of M4. Although there is limited visibility regarding future price peaks, tight supply and low PREV 2.40 downstream inventory levels are preventing signs of any pricing turnaround at least in near term. In addition to direct price hike, we also see product mix optimization as another key factor for favorable ASP. We estimate Sytech's M6+ (if we simply take it as AI CCL) took up 5-10% of Table 1 - Sytech 2Q26 Result Summary its total CCL shipment in 2025, translating to ~20% rev mix, and we expect the momentum to 2Q26
keep on with continued market share gain and penetration in major GPU/ASIC/other AI-related (Rmb m) Actual YoY QoQ vs JEFe vs Cons JEFe Cons
customers. The earlier announcement of raising its estimated procurement quota in 2026 has Revenue GM 10,884 32.6% 54% 5.8ppt 34% 4.5ppt 13% 4.2ppt 13% 4.2ppt 9,658 28.4% 9,658 28.4%
also implied smoother-than-expected progress in penetrating downstream AI customers on EBIT NP 2,434 2,129 126% 147% 69% 84% 32% 44% 32% 44% 1,837 1,483 1,837 1,483 high-end CCL, and thus we believe an even stronger 2H26 is awaiting. Adj. NP 1,825 123% 69% 23% 23% 1,483 1,483 . EPS (Rmb) 0.88 147% 84% 44% 44% 0.61 0.61 Source: Company data, FactSet, Jefferies estimates >7m sheets/month capacity to be released in coming years. We estimate Sytech's effective capacity of rigid CCL (RCCL, which takes up ~80% of its total CCL capacity) was 8-9m sheets/ Table 2 - Sytech Rigid CCL Capacity Expansion month in 2025. Going forward, we expect there could be aggregate >7m capacity expansion Forecast 20 (m sheet/month) 71% 80% in next few years mainly from projects in Thailand (0.8m design capacity at US$200m capex), % Dongguan II (3.2m at Rmb5.2bn) and Suzhou (potentially ~3m at Rmb5bn with letter of 10 8 9 11 40% 30% intention signed), suggesting >1m additional capacity per year. Amid this, we also expect its 5 20% 20% 8% mix of M6+ capacity to rise to ~30% in 2030, implying ~70% rev mix in total CCL by then. - 0% 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Reiterate BUY. We raise our 2026E-27E rev/NP forecasts by 19%/49%, which are now 7%/29% Totol RCCL Capacity M6+ as of RCCL Capacity M6+ as of CCL Revenue higher than cons. Sytech currently trades at 41x/27x 2026E/27E P/E. We reiterate Buy and . Source: Company data, Jefferies estimates our DCF-based PT at Rmb185.00 (9.5% WACC, 7.0% terminal growth rate) implies 53x/35x 2026E/27E P/E or 1.2x PEG, and suggests 29%…
Read the full report + PDF阅读全文与 PDF
The full summary (4 key points) and the original Jefferies PDF are for MastermindX Pro members. 完整摘要(4 个要点)与 Jefferies 原始 PDF 为 MastermindX Pro 会员专享。
Read on MastermindX前往 MastermindX 阅读