July Credit Monitor Prev. All OK Expecting Seasonal Trends + Steady Growth

Equity Research USA | Consumer Finance August 14, 2026

July Credit Monitor Prev.: All OK - Expecting Seasonal Trends + Steady Growth Card issuers are expected to report July results on Monday, August 17th. We expect credit M/M to show mixed results for both NCOs and DQs. Seasonally DQs tend to rise in July for card issuers. The 2nd derivative or Y/Y % will also be mixed as some issuers have reached LT avgs. Loan growth is starting to gain some momentum, especially on the lower end consumer side. In our fcst we factor in seasonality and recent company guides.

AXP: In the managed personal card portfolio, we forecast July monthly NCOs of 1.55% and DQs of 1.13%. M/M this represents a +15 bps uptick in NCOs and +3 bps for DQs. On a Y/Y basis NCOs are forecast to be -25 bps compared to the prior month's -50 bps Y/Y change. DQs on a Y/Y basis are expected to -18 bps compared to the prior month's -10 bps improvement. AXP's NCO rate is now below its historical pre-pandemic avg of 1.84%, similar to DQs which are also below the pre- pandemic avg of 1.24%. Mgmt expects credit metrics to remain generally stable in FY26 with some seasonal variation. Loan growth forecast for July of +7.4% Y/Y implies a slight deceleration vs prior month's +7.6% Y/Y.

BFH: In the managed portfolio, we expect BFH July monthly NCOs of 7.08% and DQs of 5.43%. This translates to a M/M uptick of +20 bps in NCOs and a rise of +18 bps in DQs. On a Y/Y basis, NCOs forecast an improvement of -52 bps, decelerating from the prior month's -92 bps Y/Y. DQs are forecasted to decline -37 bps Y/Y representing a deceleration from the prior month's Y/Y change of -45 bps. NCOs and DQs for BFH remain above their historical pre-pandemic averages of 5.6% and 5.0%, respectively, but have been trending in a favorable direction. BFH mgmt updated NCOs guidance to 7.0-7.1% from 7.2-7.4% for FY26 during earnings. Our loan growth forecast for July of +5.7% is up from prior month's +4.6% Y/Y.

COF: In the managed portfolio, we expect July NCOs of 4.20% and DQs of 3.48%. On a M/M basis, this equates to a -17 bps decrease in NCOs and a +9 bps increase in DQs. On a Y/Y basis, NCOs of -63 bps represents an acceleration compared to prior month's Y/Y improvement of -59 bps, while we anticipate DQs to decline -19 bps Y/Y, a slight deceleration from prior month's -21 bps Y/Y decline. COF's NCO rate has been trending below the pre-pandemic average of 4.9%, while its DQ rate is also below the pre-pandemic average of 3.7%. July's loan growth forecast of +2.8% implies a slight acceleration from the prior month's +2.6% Y/Y.

SYF: In the managed portfolio, we expect July NCOs of 5.02% and DQs of 4.24%. On a M/M basis, this equates to an improvement of -18 bps in NCOs and a slight uptick of +4 bps in DQs. On a Y/ Y basis, NCOs of -8 bps vs prior month's Y/Y change of -50 bps, while DQs of +4 bps Y/Y vs prior John Hecht * | Equity Analyst month's flat / neutral Y/Y results. NCO rates are trending at / below the pre-pandemic average of |

5.3% while DQs are trending at / below the pre-pandemic average of 4.4%. SYF mgmt maintained Alexander Villalobos-Morsink * | Equity its NCO guidance of less than 5.5% for FY26. Loan growth forecast for July of +4.9% Y/Y reflects Associate | acceleration from prior month's +2.4% Y/Y results. Yuna Sohn * | Equity Associate |

Aleksander Labosky * | Equity Associate |

Nick Henderson * | Equity Associate |

Please see analyst certifications, important disclosure information, and information regarding the status of non-US analysts on pages 5 - 11 of this report. * Jefferies LLC / Jefferies Research Services, LLC

Consumer Finance Equity Research August 14, 2026

Exhibit 1 - JEF Estimates vs Recent Trends - Card Issuers NCOs Y/Y Change DQs Y/Y Change EOP Loans ($M) Y/Y Loan Growth Last month's results (June) 1.40% -50 bps 1.10% -10 bps $113,800 7.6% This month's expectation (July) 1.55% -25 bps 1.13% -18 bps $114,742 7.4% AXP Quarterized 1.51% 1.17% JEF 3Q26E 2.23% 1.25% $115,527 8.0% Last month's results (June) 6.88% -92 bps 5.25% -45 bps $18,477 4.6% This month's expectation (July) 7.08% -52 bps 5.43% -37 bps $18,589 5.7% BFH Quarterized 6.77% 5.55% JEF 3Q26E 6.69% 5.85% $18,538 5.0%…