adidas (ADSGn.DE) Following strong, World Cup driven growth, investors remain concerned around end of cycle trends and still...

Equity Research 31 July 2026 | 5:24PM BST

adidas (ADSGn.DE) Following strong, World Cup-driven growth, investors remain concerned around end-of-cycle trends and still promotional sportswear peers; TP to €180, remain Neutral

ADSGn.DE 12m Price Target: €180.00 Price: €161.25 Upside: 11.6% NEUTRAL Richard Edwards GS View: Whilst Adidas’ 2Q26 cFX growth was strong at +14% yoy, | Goldman Sachs International underpinned by World Cup tailwinds, elevated buyside expectations into Ben Williams the print and the -8% EBIT miss resulted in a sharp sell-off in the shares. | Goldman Sachs International Additionally, the further deceleration in footwear cFX growth to +1% yoy failed to abate investor concerns around the growth profile of the Hamish Bogdan | Goldman Sachs International business post the World Cup, in the context of end-of-cycle trends for some major shoe franchises and a promotional marketplace in lifestyle. On the other hand, growth in a number of non-Football related Key Data _____________________________________ Market cap: €28.8bn / $33.1bn performance franchises remained solid with Running +28% yoy, Enterprise value: €33.3bn / $38.3bn 3m ADTV: €121.8mn / $140.4mn Motorsport +70% yoy, Training +7%. Adidas continues to take market Germany share in China, where growth was impressive at +15% yoy. Thus, we retain Europe General and Food Retail M&A Rank: 3 our Neutral rating with our FY26/27E EBIT forecasts broadly unchanged. Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes

GS Forecast __________________________________ Adidas reported 2Q26 results, with cFX revenue +14% yoy to 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

€6.7bn, with Footwear +1% cFX yoy and apparel +35% cFX yoy. Revenue (€ mn) New Revenue (€ mn) Old 24,811.0 24,811.0 27,132.9 26,695.4 29,183.7 28,891.7 31,160.2 30,929.8 DTC grew +25% cFX yoy and wholesale grew +6% cFX yoy. In EPS (€) New EPS (€) Old terms of margins, gross margin came in at 52.5% reflecting price P/E (X) increases, channel mix and a small US tariff refund. 2Q26 EBIT of Dividend yield (%) 1.4 2.2 2.8 3.2 FCF yield (%) (0.7) 5.2 6.0 7.6 €574mn, at an 8.5% margin, was an 8% miss, reflecting elevated CROCI (%)

marketing spend (+30% yoy). N debt/EBITDA (ex lease,X) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2

3/26 6/26 9/26E 12/26E CFO Change: Birgit Kretschmer will succeed Harm Ohlmeyer as CFO EPS (€)

of Adidas at the end of the year. GS Factor Profile ______________________________ Growth FY26 Guidance: 1) FY26 cFX sales now expected to grow 9%-10%; 2) FY26 operating profit to increase to around €2.3bn; 3) The Financial Returns

company stated that potential US tariff refunds of $250-$300mn Multiple

may be recoverable in the future but are not reflected in the Integrated

company’s full-year guidance. Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th

Implications: Following the above results, our FY26/27E EBIT ADSGn.DE relative to Europe Coverage forecasts remain unchanged at €2.53bn/€3.02bn based on cFX ADSGn.DE relative to Europe General and Food Retail growth of 10.5%/6.7% (from 10.5%/7.4%), an FY26 FX impact of Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. -1.1% (from -2.6%), and EBIT margins of 9.3%/10.3% (from See disclosures for details. 9.5%/10.5%). See assumptions below.

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

Goldman Sachs adidas (ADSGn.DE)

adidas (ADSGn.DE) Balance Sheet (€ mn) _______________________________________ NEUTRAL Rating since Sep 26, 2022 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Cash & cash equivalents 1,617.0 1,611.6 1,660.9 1,926.0 Accounts receivable 2,634.0 2,880.5 3,098.2 3,308.0 Inventory 5,832.0 6,023.5 6,420.4 6,699.4 Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________ Other current assets 1,894.0 2,094.0 2,294.0 2,494.0 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Total…