AEJ Week Ahead BOK, BOT and BSP meetings

Economics Research 21 August 2026 | 1:22PM IST

AEJ Week Ahead: BOK, BOT and BSP meetings; Korea budget proposal

Scheduled key data releases for the coming week in Asia ex-Japan include Singapore Arjun Varma | CPI and Taiwan IP. Next week also features central bank meetings in Korea, Goldman Sachs India SPL Philippines and Thailand and the 2027 budget proposal in Korea. Below we Hui Shan summarize our forecasts and expectations for these releases. | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

n Bank of Korea meeting (August 27): We expect a hawkish hold at the August MPC. It is a close call, with markets pricing in more than 50% chance of hike and Bloomberg consensus (11 out of 21 economists) expecting a 25bp hike to 3.00% at the time of writing. The macro backdrop still argues for caution: exports and capex remain firm, but the impulse is narrow and memory-sector-led, while private consumption remains broadly soft. Inflation remains above the 2% target, but underlying inflation momentum is expected to slow, given weak labor markets and the recent rebound in the KRW. Housing markets remain divergent, while loan delinquency has started to rise. We expect forward guidance to stay hawkish, with the six-month median dot rising to 3.25% from 3.0% in May. We also expect the BOK to lift its 2026 growth forecast from 2.6% toward 3.2%, in line with our forecast and Bloomberg consensus, while keeping its 2026 inflation forecast broadly unchanged at 2.7% and possibly nudging up its 2027 inflation forecast. Our terminal-rate forecast remains 3.25% in Q1 2027, more dovish relative to current market pricing. n Korea 2027 Budget Proposal (late August): Korea’s government will release its 2027 budget proposal by end of August (exact date is not yet confirmed). Markets will be closely watching the size of fiscal deficit for next year given previous comments by government officials as well as the updated medium-term fiscal projections, including revenues from semiconductor companies. Possible reduction in KTB issuance limits could reduce concerns of supply overhang for the super-long maturities.

n Taiwan July IP (August 25): We forecast Taiwan’s IP to fall 0.2% mom sa, contracting marginally after 5 consecutive months of increases. We expect the marginal pullback given a modest contraction in tech company sales and real exports during the month. In year-on-year terms, we expect growth to moderate to 21.0% from 22.6% the prior month (vs. Bloomberg consensus: 23.3% at the time of writing).

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n Singapore July CPI (August 24): We expect Singapore’s CPI inflation to rise to 2.4% yoy in July, up from 1.9% yoy in June. We also expect core CPI inflation to increase to 2.4% yoy, from 1.6% yoy in June. The main driver of the increase in consumer prices is higher electricity costs, following a substantial 17% increase in electricity tariff rates. n Bank of Thailand meeting (August 26): We expect the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.00% at its August meeting. Thailand’s economy lost momentum in Q2, with real GDP growth slowing sharply to 1.9% yoy, from 2.9% yoy in Q1. Domestic demand has come under pressure from elevated energy prices and weaker income growth, while inflation remains relatively contained. Against this backdrop, we believe the BoT is likely to stay on hold, preserving an accommodative policy stance to support the still-subdued growth outlook. n Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas meeting (August 27): We expect the BSP to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 5.00% at its August meeting. Headline inflation remains above the central bank’s target range at 6.2% yoy in July. Meanwhile, still elevated core inflation points to broader underlying price pressures beyond the initial food and energy price shock. Additionally, energy prices are still elevated as the conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved. This introduces upside risks to the Philippines’ inflation outlook. Against this backdrop, we think BSP will hike the policy rate to dampen inflationary…