AEJ Week Ahead China July activity data, Thailand Q2 GDP, and BI meeting

Economics Research 14 August 2026 | 8:18PM HKT

AEJ Week Ahead: China July activity data, Thailand Q2 GDP, and BI meeting

Scheduled key data releases for the coming week in Asia ex-Japan include July Chelsea Song | activity data in China, Thailand Q2 GDP, Korea 20-day exports, and CPI inflation in Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Malaysia. Next week also features a central bank meeting in Indonesia. Below we Goohoon Kwon, CFA summarize our forecasts and expectations for these releases. | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Mainland China

n China July Activity (Aug 17): We expect industrial production (IP) growth to slow to 4.6% yoy in July from 5.3% yoy in June, reflecting softer export growth and a sharper year-on-year contraction in steel production and demand. Adjusted for base effects, our forecast implies a decline in growth to -2.6% mom in July (annualized and seasonally adjusted) from +12.0% mom annualized in June, consistent with last year’s pattern of softer sequential IP growth at the start of each quarter. On a single-month basis, we expect fixed asset investment (FAI) growth to improve to -6.4% yoy in July from -9.3% yoy in June, due mainly to a low base despite still-unfavorable weather, implying year-to-date growth of -5.8% yoy in July. We expect retail sales growth to rise further to 1.5% yoy in July from 1.0% yoy in June, as favorable base effects may have boosted year-on-year growth in automobile and home appliance sales. NDRC data indicate that in-store consumption-related payment growth rose to 2.2% yoy in July from 1.4% yoy in June.

n Korea August 20-day exports (Aug 21): Korea’s customs office will release trade data for the first 20 days of August. Seasonally and workday adjusted exports during the first 10 days of August fell 1.5% mom sa in August, pulling back after three months of robust gains. Momentum was weighed down by non-chip tech products and autos. Headline exports for the first 20 days of the month could continue to be impacted by slightly negative workday effects.

n Thailand Q2 GDP (Aug 17): We expect the Thai economy to expand 2.1% yoy in Q2, moderating from 2.8% yoy in Q1. On a sequential basis, we forecast real GDP to contract by 0.2% qoq (SA), following a 0.7% expansion in Q1. High frequency indicators point to a sharp weakening in private consumption, reflecting elevated energy prices and softer income growth. The decline in spending is broad-based across services, durable and non-durable goods. Private investment indicator,

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however, has held up better than our expectations, partly supported by continued data center investment. This is likely to have provided a partial offset to the deterioration in consumption. n Malaysia July CPI (Aug 17): We expect Malaysia’s CPI inflation to ease slightly to 1.8% yoy in July, from 1.9% yoy in June. On a sequential basis, we expect consumer prices to rise by 0.1% mom (NSA). We expect continued increases in food prices to be partly offset by a sharp decline in non-subsidized fuel prices. n Bank Indonesia meeting (Aug 19): We expect Bank Indonesia to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.75% at the August meeting. Destry Damayanti’s nomination as BI governor, alongside other technocratic nominations, has reinforced market expectations of policy continuity and helped improve market sentiment. With USDIDR easing to around 17,800 and expectations for further Fed tightening also receding, external pressures on the IDR have moderated. We think this gives BI greater room to remain on hold in August, rather than tightening further.

Key data/events to watch outside the region include: Real GDP, industrial production, CPI, and trade data in Japan; CPI and PMI data in the Eurozone; trade data in New Zealand; PMI, unemployment rate, and consumer confidence data in Australia.