Americas Brokers & Crypto A cautiously optimistic outlook for 2H26

Equity Research 24 August 2026 | 4:58PM EDT

A cautiously optimistic outlook for 2H26: structural and cyclical traditional brokerage and prediction markets growth, and upside crypto optionality, if recent trends persist

Brokers and crypto stocks under coverage are up 3% on EV/EBITDA. We highlight 5 key themes coming out of 2Q26 James Yaro | average since 7/21/26 (ahead of the group’s first earnings: Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC earnings), outperforming the S&P 500 by 1pp, as we enter 1. We see tailwinds for retail trading inflection into the Matthew Weng tougher seasonality in the late summer in traditional | fall, both structurally and cyclically... When adjusting retail trading, and the crypto backdrop has been muted Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC for account/asset growth of the brokerages over the Divyam Harlalka until the past week. However, we remain cautiously | past few years, 2Q26 retail volumes remain below prior optimistic on the Brokers & crypto stocks from here from Goldman Sachs India SPL cycle peaks. Further, July and August remain two of the both a structural and cyclical perspective. We see positive Lokesh Kumar Sangewar weakest seasonal months. While volumes in July/August | structural and cyclical growth trends across traditional of this year were down 30%/21%, underperforming Goldman Sachs India SPL brokerage and prediction markets. Further, despite typical historical seasonality, we attribute this in part to Thirukumaran R persistently weaker crypto volumes, a very recent spike in | volumes being pulled forward into a record June, given crypto market cap, if it were to persist, could drive a positive Goldman Sachs India SPL strong ECM trends in the month. Further, seasonality inflection in trading. This could be catalyzed by crypto inflects in September, and could benefit further from regulatory reform - while the crypto market structure bill record IPO activity that GS Portfolio Strategy passing under this US Congress appears increasingly unlikely, anticipates over the course of the rest of the year. US regulatory agencies continue to push forward with regulatory changes that should drive ecosystem expansion 2. ...And similar or even more pronounced structural at least to some degree. Moreover, digital assets firms have and cyclical growth potential in prediction markets. demonstrated willingness to rationalize cost to cushion the Prediction markets have experienced explosive growth impact of a challenging operating backdrop. Finally, average over the past 2 years (rising 1,160% from Jan’24-Jul’26 valuation across the group appears attractive, at only ~30th %ile levels over the past 5 years on GSe adj. P/E and

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Goldman Sachs Americas Brokers & Crypto