Americas Business & Information Services 3Q debt issuance moderates, but key growth drivers remain intact

Equity Research 11 October 2026 | 9:01PM PDT

AMERICAS BUSINESS & INFORMATION SERVICES

3Q debt issuance moderates, but key growth drivers remain intact

Global debt issuance moderated in 3Q, though investment grade strength and George K. Tong, CFA | resilient billed issuance remained supportive of ratings activity at S&P Global and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Moody’s. Global debt issuance declined 8% y/y following 34% growth in 2Q, as Alex Lakritz | growth of 25% in investment grade, 15% in financial institutions and 3% in Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC structured finance was more than offset by declines of 54% in leveraged loans and Sami Nasir, CFA | 37% in high yield issuance. We tweak our 3Q ratings estimates to reflect weaker Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC corporate finance issuance and stronger financial institutions issuance than previously assumed, raising our SPGI Ratings revenue growth forecast to 3.3% y/y from 3.0% and our MCO MIS forecast to 3.6% from 2.6%. We fractionally increase our 2026 growth forecasts to 7.9% from 7.8% for SPGI Ratings and to 9.2% from 9.0% for MCO MIS. We also raise our 3Q SPGI Indices revenue growth forecast to 17.0% y/y from 13.0% and our 2026 forecast to 13.8% from 13.3%, reflecting strong ETF AUM linked to S&P indices. Looking ahead to 2027, our credit strategists forecast 5% combined US investment grade and high yield issuance growth and 7% combined Euro growth. We reiterate our Buy ratings on SPGI and MCO, supported by AI-related data center investment, a healthy refinancing pipeline and increased M&A financing.

Debt issuance volumes declined in 3Q. Global debt issuance fell 8% y/y in 3Q following 34% growth in 2Q. By month, issuance declined 21% y/y in July, increased 6% in August and declined 6% in September, reflecting uneven activity throughout the quarter. This volatility created a mixed backdrop for ratings activity at SPGI and MCO, though SPGI’s billed issuance, which excludes frequent issuer activity and includes private credit issuance, remained comparatively resilient, increasing 8% y/y in July and 11% in August. The issuance data point to moderating but still healthy ratings activity in 3Q, with SPGI’s billed issuance providing a more constructive read-through than aggregate volumes alone.

Investment grade issuance remained strong as leveraged finance declined. Global investment grade issuance grew 25% y/y in 3Q, compared with declines of 54% in leveraged loan issuance and 37% in high yield issuance. AI-related data center investment, continued refinancing activity and increased M&A financing supported investment grade issuance, though higher rates in September created a less supportive financing backdrop. Growth extended beyond corporate investment grade debt, with global financial institutions issuance increasing 15% y/y and structured finance issuance rising 3%. Corporate leveraged loan and structured

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Goldman Sachs Americas Business & Information Services

finance data typically lag other debt categories by one to two weeks, so final reported growth rates may differ from current figures.

EMEA was the only region to deliver issuance growth in 3Q. Total debt issuance increased 3% y/y in EMEA, compared with declines of 3% in APAC and 13% in North America, highlighting meaningful variation in issuance trends across regions. EMEA’s relative strength was supported by corporate investment grade issuance, which grew 29% y/y, and structured finance issuance, which increased 13%. North America experienced the sharpest overall decline, driven by continued weakness in leveraged finance, as corporate leveraged loan and high yield issuance decreased 52% and 35%, respectively. APAC…