Americas Business & Information Services August temp headcount grows y y for a second month, though structural AI risks persist

Equity Research 4 September 2026 | 7:17AM PDT

AMERICAS BUSINESS & INFORMATION SERVICES

August temp headcount grows y/y for a second month, though structural AI risks persist

US temp penetration in August 2026 was flat m/m near one of the lowest readings in George K. Tong, CFA | years as temp headcount stayed subdued, reinforcing our cautious outlook for the Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

domestic temp staffing space. US temp penetration registered 1.58% in August, Sami Nasir, CFA | unchanged from 1.58% in July, representing the fourth lowest reading in six years, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC while temp jobs delivered just 1.5% y/y growth. Even as temp job y/y changes Alex Lakritz | inflected positively over the past two months following 3+ years of decline, we Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC expect longer term growth to be structurally compromised due to disruption from AI. We estimate ~55% of US temp roles are white‑collar in nature, a segment increasingly exposed to AI‑driven disintermediation. Against this backdrop, we remain cautious on Robert Half, which focuses primarily on temp staffing for white-collar roles in finance & accounting, admin & customer support and IT. We adopt a more neutral stance on Manpower given its industrial temp staffing focus that insulates it from AI risk, and signs of improving manufacturing activity in Europe where the company generates the majority of its revenue. We are positive on Korn Ferry due to its leadership in executive staffing that is protected from AI, its diversified revenue streams enabling cross-selling and share gains, and its leverage to secular trends in the labor market driving demand for its workforce transformation solutions.

Temp penetration flat m/m in August. Temp penetration was flat m/m in August near one of the lowest readings in years, reinforcing our negative stance on domestic temp staffing. US temp penetration registered 1.58% in August, unchanged from July. Temp penetration rates have generally been on a broader downward trajectory since February 2022, when temp penetration registered 2.09%. The decline in temp penetration from 2.09% to 1.58% since February 2022 is significant, representing three standard deviations based on data since 1996. August’s temp penetration rate represents the fourth lowest reading in six years and comes well below pre-COVID levels of 1.92% from January 2020. With instances of hiring freezes and corporate downsizing, we expect demand for labor to soften and the supply of labor to increase, putting downward pressure on temp penetration rates in the coming months. We note that temp staffing typically leads the broader macro and labor market by 2-4 quarters since employers generally reduce temp headcount first when downsizing ahead of a macro slowdown and retain full-time employees with more valuable company knowledge longer, though the recent strong labor supply growth has extended that lead time.

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Goldman Sachs Americas Business & Information Services

Exhibit 1: Temp Penetration Was Flat M/M in August Exhibit 2: Temp Job Growth Accelerated Y/Y in August US Temp Penetration vs. Unemployment; 20-Year Correlation: US Temp Worker Growth and US Temp Worker Count -0.49

Total Temp Workers (Thousands) 2,520 3,000

Growth in Temp Workers (Y/Y) 14.0% 2.5% 30% 11.0% 2.05% 1.58% 12.0% 2,500

Unemployment 2.0% 1.81% 10.0% 10% 2,000 1.5% 8.0% 0% 1,500 6.0% (10%) 1.0% 1.5% (20%) 1,000 4.3% 4.0% 4.4% (30%) 0.5% 4.1% 2.0% 500 (40%) 0.0% Aug-01 Aug-02 0.0% (50%) 0 Aug-03

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