Americas Homebuilders, Building Products & Wood Products 3Q26 Earnings Preview

Equity Research 12 October 2026 | 12:01AM EDT

AMERICAS HOMEBUILDERS, BUILDING PRODUCTS & WOOD PRODUCTS

Operating Conditions Point to Sequential Moderation in 3Q Results: In contrast Susan Maklari | to a better than expected 2Q—led by share gains, product innovation, cost actions, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and tariff refunds—we look for more muted outcomes this quarter. Our view reflects Charles Perron-Piche, CFA a moderation in demand across much of our coverage as the 30-year fixed mortgage | charles.perron- rate is up 74bps since August, hitting the low-to-mid-7% range, in addition to weak Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC consumer confidence. Rising inflation, especially in energy, transportation, and key Rhea Bhatia | commodities, is also leading to greater price/cost pressures, putting future margins Goldman Sachs India SPL at risk. Given the set-up and limited visibility, we believe management teams will Galilee Best likely maintain a cautious tone. We look for a continued focus on company-specific | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC initiatives and capital allocation to drive industry relative outperformance while maintaining profitability and supporting future EPS. Although we see more limited upside to results this quarter, we expect 4Q/2026 guides will likely be modestly narrowed at or slightly below the lower-end of the previous range as much of the current headwinds were already incorporated.

Seasonality Suggests Upside to Stocks into Year-End While We Highlight Non-Res & Idiosyncratic Stories for 3Q: In our view, this outlook is largely priced in with 52% of our coverage trading within 5% of its 52-week lows. The setup suggests more limited upside to EPS across our coverage, though we believe based on conversations buyside expectations have likely embedded the impact of higher rates and macro headwinds. Should any of these factors turn positive in the coming weeks or months, pushing rates and commodity prices incrementally lower, we believe the next move for the group could be higher, exacerbated by negative sentiment and positioning. We also note seasonality implies upside into year-end. In the near-term, we highlight the following Buy-rated building product names with idiosyncratic stories that we believe can drive peer-relative outperformance for 3Q: AWI, CSL (on-CL), FBIN, and IBP.

Downwardly Revising 2026 Housing Starts Forecast while Inflation Drives our R&R Outlook Higher: In line with the macro backdrop, we now expect 2026 single-family starts to decline 4.6% YOY to 900k from 920k, which implies an ~875k run rate in the last four months of the year. We are also reducing our estimate for multi-family starts to 420k from 432k, implying 1% growth YOY, bringing total starts to 1.319mn, a decrease of 2.9%. In contrast, we are raising our 2026 and 2027 R&R forecast to +6.7% and +2.0%, from +3.1% and +0.9%, respectively. The upward

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Goldman Sachs Americas Homebuilders, Building Products & Wood

Picks for 3Q: History Suggests Next Move Could be Higher 4

Homebuilders: Further Slowdown in Starts as Rates March Higher 10

Building Products: Price Leads Growth as Producers Look to Offset Inflation and Realize Positive Mix 19

Wood Products: Moderation in Housing, Changes to Supply and Inflation Will be Key to 4Q & 2027 Outlook24