ANA Holdings (9202)

Equity Research 29 July 2026 | 8:51PM JST

ANA Holdings (9202.T) Earnings Review: 1Q above expectations; resilient passenger demand and improved cargo market conditions as drivers; Buy

9202.T 12m Price Target: ¥3,500 Price: ¥3,195 Upside: 9.5% BUY Norihiro Miyazaki ANA Holdings reported 1Q3/27 results after the July 29 close. The | Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. main points are as follows. Ryohei Kurita | n 1Q3/27 results: 1Q operating profits of ¥20.8 bn (-44% yoy) Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

came in above our estimate of ¥9.9 bn. Operating profits in the core air transportation segment exceeded guidance by ¥29 bn (main breakdown: lower fuel costs +¥14.5 bn, international cargo +¥12 bn, international passenger revenue +¥8.5 bn, etc.). Key Data _____________________________________ Market cap: ¥1.5tr / $9.2bn According to ANA, against the fuel impact (-¥71 bn) from Enterprise value: ¥1.5tr / $9.1bn 3m ADTV: ¥8.0bn / $49.9mn heightened tensions in the Middle East as of 1Q, it reduced the Japan Japan Transportation impact on profits to -¥32 bn through hedging, fare/fuel M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes surcharge pass-through, and cost cuts. While the impact of GS Forecast __________________________________ surging jet fuel prices materialized as expected, earnings 3/26 3/27E 3/28E 3/29E progressed more resiliently than we had assumed, driven by Revenue (¥ bn) 2,539.2 2,800.5 2,859.6 2,954.1 Op. profit (¥ bn) New resilient international passenger demand and improved Op. profit (¥ bn) Old

international cargo market conditions on the back of volume Op. profit CoE (¥ bn) EPS (¥) New growth in demand related to semiconductors and electronic EPS (¥) Old P/E (X) components. P/B (X) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 CROCI (%) n Outlook for 2Q3/27 onward: In the near term, while a 6/26 9/26E 12/26E 3/27E downward impact on profits from higher jet fuel prices is EPS (¥) possible (recently around $150/barrel versus guidance of GS Factor Profile ______________________________ $120/barrel), we see a high probability that full-year operating Growth

profits will exceed full-year guidance of ¥150 bn, driven by yield Financial Returns

improvement in the international passenger business and the Multiple

continued effect of higher international cargo revenue (our new Integrated estimate is ¥186.6 bn; the Bloomberg consensus is ¥165.9 bn). Regarding the passenger volume outlook (yoy) for July/August, Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th

ANA indicated +7%/+0% for international and -2%/-4% for 9202.T relative to Japan Coverage

domestic. In the international passenger business, while there is 9202.T relative to Japan Transportation

an impact on customer volume from surging fuel surcharges, Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details. mainly in leisure demand for flights from Japan, real yield (unit

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

Goldman Sachs ANA Holdings (9202.T)

ANA Holdings (9202.T) Income Statement (¥ bn) ___________________________________ BUY Rating since Nov 16, 2020 3/26 3/27E 3/28E 3/29E Total revenue 2,539.2 2,800.5 2,859.6 2,954.1 Cost of goods sold (2,074.8) (2,341.4) (2,365.3) (2,436.9) SG&A ( ) Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________ R&D /26 3/27E 3/28E 3/29E Other operating inc./(exp.) -- -- -- -- P/E (X) EBITDA P/B (X) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 Depreciation & amortization ( ) FCF yield (%) ) EBIT EV/EBITDAR (X) 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.8 Net interest inc./(exp.) ( ) EV/EBITDA (excl. leases) (X) 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.8 Income/(loss) from associates 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 CROCI (%) Pre-tax profit ROE (%) Provision for taxes ( ) Net debt/equity (%) ( Minority interest (1.9) (1.9) (1.9) (1.9) Net debt/equity (excl. leases) (%) (…