Asia Bits | China Semis, CXMT

Latest Weekend Thoughts - Momentum rotation, Gold encore, Bitcoin.

China macro going from weak to weaker. July activity data slowed further despite coming from a lower starting point, and also hit areas that had previously looked resilient including services retail sales. GDP run rate stands at ~4%. Upcoming policy measures are mostly supply-driven. View is stronger demand-side stimulus and fundamental reforms to improve domestic demand are probably needed.

CHIPS series has been tracking China’s progress in building a self-sufficient semiconductor supply chain. Three years on, in latest note we do a check-in on product development and SPE roadmap, capex ($82bn by 2030), introduce GPU/DRAM TAM, initiated CXMT at Buy (TP RMB129), and discuss implications for global SPE/memory peers. We estimate China <7nm logic ss/dd gap to narrow to 34% by 2035, and CXMT to capture 50% of China DRAM demand by 2028. Lithography will be key in closing IC self-sufficiency gap. Pg 4-6 gives a good map of the ecosystem. Tonnes of work done – highly recommend a chat with Allen, Verena and team.

Full list of research in today’s 720 - Samsung Electronics, Japan SPE, NEC, Li Ning, Zijin Mining and more.

Conferences Asia Leaders Conference. 31 Aug - 2 Sept, HK. Details, Agenda. Japan Conference. 30 Nov - 4 Dec, Tokyo. Details.

Corporate Days in Singapore Asia Healthcare CDMO Day. 24-25 Sept, Singapore. Details. Singapore Value Unlock Corporate Day. 30 Sept, Singapore. Details tbc. Vietnam Corporate Day. 5-6 Oct, Singapore. Details. Korea Corporate Day. 24 Nov, Singapore. Details tbc. India Corporate Day. 2-3 Dec, Singapore. Details tbc.

NDRs in Singapore Tokyo Gas – Aug 24-25 (1x1) Metaplanet – Aug 24