AstraZeneca (AZN)

Equity Research 17 August 2026 | 8:52AM BST

AstraZeneca (AZN.L): Mixed lung cancer updates across the portfolio; eVOLVE-Lung02 discontinuation improves 2027 catalyst set up

This morning, AZN announced: 1) positive topline results from the Phase 3 SAFFRON Rajan Sharma | trial, where Tagrisso plus Orpathys (MET inhibitor) showed positive PFS and OS Goldman Sachs International results in 2L EGFR+ MET+ NSCLC; 2) discontinuation of the Phase 3 eVOLVE-Lung02 James Quigley trial testing volrustomig (PD-1xCTLA-4) + chemo vs. Keytruda + chemo in PD-L1 low | (<50%) NSCLC at an interim analysis due to futility (the trial was expected to readout Goldman Sachs International

in 1H27) and 3) positive PFS data from the Destiny-Lung04 trial investigating Max Da, Ph.D. | Enhertu in HER2+ NSCLC. Goldman Sachs International

Our view: On SAFFRON, despite a relatively modest market opportunity in the 2L Shyam Kotadia | EGFR+ patients with high levels of MET overexpression or amplification (a third of Goldman Sachs International patients previously treated with a tyrosine kinase inhibitor), we see the update as Theodora Rowe Beadle positive given that it expands Tagrisso’s opportunity and differentiates Tagrisso from | competitor regimens by providing an option which allows patients to stay on Tagrisso Goldman Sachs International

post 1L post disease progression driven by MET. We do not model the SAFFRON Avantika B | opportunity specifically in our AZN model given a potentially modest contribution. Goldman Sachs India SPL

On eVOLVE-Lung02, we see the discontinuation as a modest negative given limited focus on the asset amongst investors in the context of the company’s wider oncology and lung cancer opportunity set and that the program is viewed as high risk. That said, given investors skepticism around the asset/trial it was noted as a potential reason for caution by investors on the 2027 catalyst path which we believe skews positively. As such, we believe early termination of the trial and removal of the readout in 2027 improves the catalyst set up in 2027. We note company complied consensus forecasts $1.8bn peak sales for the drug across all indications at a 40% probability of success. Following the eVOLVE-Lung02 update, we look to data from the eVOLVE-Cervical trial in high risk locally advanced cervical cancer (expected 2H27) as the next key update for the drug. On DESTINY-Lung04, the positive results further validate the drug’s standard-of-care status in HER2+ cancer indications, where we model c. $900mn peak sales in the 1L HER2+ NSCLC setting. Overall, we expect this morning’s updates to have limited impact on near and long-term forecasts with the company reiterating its ambition of $80bn in revenue by 2030.

Valuation and risks We are Buy rated on AstraZeneca. Our 12-month price targets are derived from a 50:50 blend of DCF and P/E. Our bottom-up DCF analysis suggests a valuation of 15,517p per share (WACC 8.0%; TGR 2.5%), and on a multiples basis, we believe

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Goldman Sachs AstraZeneca (AZN.L)

AstraZeneca should trade at 20x 2027E EPS, giving a valuation of 16,557p. As a result, our price targets are 16,070p/$213. Key risks to our view and price targets: (i) Clinical trial failure; (ii) Commercial execution; (iii) Pricing; (iv) Competitive developments; and (v) Patent exposure.

AZN.L 12m Price Target: 16,070p Price: 11,460p Upside: 40.2%

AZN 12m Price Target: $213.00 Price: $156.45 Upside: 36.1%

Buy GS Forecast 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Market cap: £177.5bn / $240.5bn Revenue ($ mn) 58,738.9 63,197.9 66,781.9 71,662.0 Enterprise value: EBIT ($ mn) 18,478.0 20,959.3 22,485.4 24,435.0 £188.5bn / $255.4bn EPS ($) m ADTV: £378.3mn…