Australia & NZ Weekly Economic Preview Review Week commencing

Economics Research 24 July 2026 | 2:19PM AEST

Australia & NZ Weekly Economic Preview/Review: Week commencing 27 July 2026

Key data over the past week: Andrew Boak, CFA | In Australia: Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

n Analyst: Launching Probabilistic Forecasts for Quarterly Trimmed Mean Inflation: Will Maher | We launch probabilistic forecasts for quarterly trimmed mean inflation, derived Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

using Monte Carlo simulations based on historical forecast errors. Looking ahead Oscar To | to the 2Q2026 CPI report, our probability-weighted forecast is 0.92%qoq, Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd

suggesting risks lie to the downside of our 0.95%qoq modal forecast. n Labour Force: The unemployment rate increased 6bp to 4.43% in June, in line with expectations, alongside much larger-than-expected increases in both employment and the participation rate.

n CPI 2Q2026: Headline CPI increased 1.5%qoq in 2Q2026, with the year-over-year rate accelerating 100bp to 4.1%yoy. Compositionally, the acceleration in inflation was driven by tradables prices alongside higher oil prices, while non-tradables inflation was little changed. Underlying inflation generally picked up. We continue to expect the RBNZ to hike the policy rate in September but now expect a final 25bp hike at December’s meeting to 3.00%.

Australia: Tues: Speech by RBA Governor Bullock (1:05pm AEST); Wed: CPI; Thurs: Building Approvals, Trade Prices, Fireside Chat with RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Hunter (8:40am AEST); Fri: PPI, Private Sector Credit.

New Zealand: Tues: Filled Jobs; Thurs: ANZ Business Outlook; Fri: Cotality House Prices, ANZ Consumer Confidence.

In Australia, the focus will be on the June CPI report. We expect 2Q2026 quarterly trimmed mean inflation to increase 0.95%qoq, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.76%yoy, but see risks skewed to the downside. Our probability-weighted forecast is lower at 0.92%qoq. Aside from the CPI data, we will also hear from senior RBA officials.

In New Zealand, we will receive updates on filled jobs as well as business and consumer confidence.

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Goldman Sachs Australia & NZ Weekly Economic Preview/Review

Australia: Week commencing 27 July 2026

Wednesday 29 July, 11:30am AEST CPI, June

Quarterly headline CPI, GSe: +0.61%qoq, +3.95%yoy; Bloomberg consensus: +0.7%qoq; Last: +1.38%qoq, +4.09%yoy.

Quarterly trimmed mean, GSe: +0.95%qoq, +3.76%yoy; Bloomberg consensus: +0.9%qoq, +3.7%yoy; RBA May SMP: +1.0%qoq; Last: +0.81%qoq, +3.47%yoy.

Monthly headline CPI, GSe: +0.2%mom, +4.0%yoy; Bloomberg consensus: +0.2%mom, +4.0%yoy; Last: -0.7%mom, +4.0%yoy.

Monthly trimmed mean, GSe: +0.4%mom, +3.7%yoy; Bloomberg consensus: +0.3%mom, +3.7%yoy; Last: +0.4%mom, +3.6%yoy.

Australia’s headline CPI decreased 0.7%mom in May, with year-over-year growth decelerating 20bp to be 4.0%yoy. In underlying terms, trimmed mean inflation rose 0.4%mom, with year-over-year growth accelerating 20bp to 3.6%yoy.

Looking ahead, Exhibit 1 displays our key forecasts for the upcoming June CPI report. For 2Q2026 overall, we expect trimmed mean to increase 0.95%qoq, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.76%yoy, but we view risks skewed to a lower outcome. Specifically, our probability-weighted forecast is lower at 0.92%qoq (Exhibit 2).

In the June month specifically, we expect headline CPI to rise 0.2%mom, corresponding to an unchanged year-over-year rate of 4.0%yoy. Compositionally, we expect a seasonal rise in domestic (GSe: +6.4%mom) and international (GSe: +4.3%mom) travel prices to be only partially offset by a fall in transport prices (GSe: -2.6%mom). We expect the recent rise in fuel and related commodity prices to continue to feed through with some lag, particularly across new dwelling purchase (GSe: +1.1%mom) and food prices (GSe: +0.6%mom). For more detail, see our latest Inflation Monitor.

In underlying terms, we expect monthly trimmed mean CPI to rise 0.4%mom in June, corresponding to a 10bp acceleration in the year-over-year rate of 3.7%yoy.