BNZ Markets Today

Research Markets Today 14 October 2026

Events round-up 2027. The IMF noted that the global economy is once again proving resilient, but unevenly so, with the stable global AU: NAB business conditions, Sep: -1 vs. -1 prev. aggregate masking a reallocation of growth across economies. US: NFIB small business optimism, Sep: 97.9 vs. 98.2 exp. US: Existing home sales (m/m%), Sep: 1.5 vs. -0.8 exp. In currency markets, the NZD lurched lower yesterday afternoon to a low of 0.5580, but that level once again Good morning proved supportive. It subsequently recovered to an overnight high just above 0.5615, close to where it Market movements have remained well contained, with currently sits. The repeated rejection of moves below US equities relatively flat and US Treasury yields showing 0.5580 since the start of the month has solidified that level only modest changes. The NZD has recovered slightly, as a marker of support, for now at least. pushing back above the 0.56 mark, and is modestly higher against most key crosses. Other major currencies showed a similar pattern, reflecting broad-based USD weakness. The AUD has recovered to The US earnings season got off to a strong start, with JP 0.6980, while the EUR briefly traded above 1.12 overnight. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citi all reporting NZD crosses are mostly higher overnight, although the higher profits, supported by both trading and banking gains have been small. operations. Strong equity trading was a notable feature, while net interest margins expanded against the backdrop Global forces supported a move lower in NZ rates of higher interest rates. Share price reactions to the results yesterday, with NZGB yields marked down 2–4bps across were mixed, and US equities are trading relatively flat the curve. The 10-year yield closed below 5% for the first overall. time this month, at 4.98%. Swap rates were also marked down 2–4bps, with a flattening bias, leaving the 2-year Oil prices remain elevated against the backdrop of Middle rate at 3.99% and the 10-year rate at 4.68%. East hostilities. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen warned that some sites should be evacuated ahead of a “special In the day ahead, China’s inflation and trade data will be operation”, while Trump said in a social media post that released. However, the highlight of the week is tonight’s “the Houthis are behaving very badly”. Bloomberg US CPI report. The consensus expects the core rate to rise reported an increase in attacks on ships crossing the Strait by 0.2% m/m, which would be moderate enough to keep of Hormuz and signs that the flow of cargoes may be the Fed on the sidelines at its late-October meeting. An slowing in response, according to contacts in the shipping upside surprise, however, could increase the pricing of a industry. Brent crude is trading around USD106. rate hike from the 6bps currently priced and support the USD. US Treasury yields continue to be closely correlated with gyrations in oil prices. The 10-year yield tracked lower alongside oil prices during the NZ trading session and fell to an overnight low of 5.17% before reversing course. It is Coming up currently at 5.22%, up 3bps from the NZ close, with the curve slightly flatter. In European bond markets, risk Period Cons. Prev. NZT

sentiment has improved somewhat, with French and CH PPI (y/y%) Sep 4.4 3.8 14:30 peripheral 10-year spreads narrowing against Germany; CH CPI (y/y%) Sep 1.0 0.8 14:30 the French spread has contracted by 5bps. CH Exports (USD, y/y%) Sep 25.7 25.0 CH Imports (USD, y/y%) Sep 25.0 28.2 In economic news, the IMF released its latest World US CPI (m/m%) Sep 0.6 0.4 01:30 Economic Outlook report yesterday, leaving its forecast for US Core CPI (m/m%) Sep 0.2 0.3 01:30 world GDP growth in 2026 unchanged at 3.1%. Growth is US CPI (y/y%) Sep 3.6 3.4 01:30 expected to pick up to 3.4% in 2027, an upward revision of US Core CPI (y/y%) Sep 2.5 2.4 01:30 two-tenths. The inflation forecast was revised up by three- Source: Bloomberg tenths to 4.7% for 2026 and by four-tenths to 4.1% for

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