BofA Michael Hartnett Bonds bringing the heat

The Flow Show Bonds bringing the heat

Scores on the Doors: oil 60.6%, international stocks 11.4%, US stocks 8.2%, US$ 3.2%, 23 July 2026 cash 2.0%, HY 1.6%, IG -0.9%, govt bonds -2.4%, gold -6.7%, bitcoin -25.7% YTD. Investment Strategy Global Zeitgeist: “Smarter politically for Fed to hike next week, not wait until September, no?”

Tale of the Tape: highest 30-year yield (5.2%) since Jun’07, 30-year real yield (3%) since Nov’08, US tech bond prices at 2-year lows; tighter financial conditions (FCI) surprising more than profits (EPS)...ends only once Fed hikes to calm long-end; watch “up in bond yields, up in bank stocks” bull combo flipping to “higher yields = lower banks”...trigger for risk asset deleveraging; long US dollar best hedge for hawkish Fed. Michael Hartnett The Price is Right: lead indicator for industrial cycle “blue collar semis”1 down 21% Investment Strategist from June peak (Chart 3)...hyperscaling MAGS struggling to hold 200dma ($65); BofAS challenges “boom” consensus (Jul’26 BofA Global FMS); we say long defensives, dividends, duration, short banks (seeing large inflows), brokers, tech, industrials Anya Shelekhin Investment Strategist (investors most overweight since Jul’21) best trades for reversal in “boom” expectations. BofAS The Biggest Picture: long-term buy opportunity = Hong Kong property stocks (Chart 2)... same price as 30 years ago, limited downside/big H2’2020s upside likely as play on Myung-Jee Jung Investment Strategist stable China financial backdrop, secular rise in China/Asia tech, new bulls in EM & real BofAS estate, less Dubai, Singapore allure; we are secular buyers of any dips caused by Fed tightening or BoJ currency crisis (Japan yen weakest vs. US$ since 1986). Jessica Guo Investment Strategist Chart 2: Secular upside likely for Hong Kong property BofAS Hang Seng (Hong Kong) Property Index Hang Seng (HK) Property Index Apr' Chart 1: BofA Bull & Bear Indicator Stays at %

5000 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 '23 '26 Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy. The indicator identified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator is Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg intended to be an indicative metric only and may not be BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or More on page 2… otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. This indicator was not created to act as 1 Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, NXP, Microchip, ON, STMicroelectronics, Infineon, a benchmark. BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Monolithic Power

Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 12 to 14. Timestamp: 23 July 2026 10:09PM EDT

Weekly Flows: $30.4bn to stocks, $14.9bn to bonds, $2.0bn to gold, $0.9bn to crypto, $33.9bn from cash.

• Crypto: $0.9bn inflow, biggest in 11 weeks (Chart 8),

• Gold: $2.0bn inflow, biggest since Apr’26,

• IG bonds: $5.9bn inflow, 16th week of inflows,

• EM equities: $29.6bn inflow, 2nd biggest inflow ever,

• China equities: $21.3bn inflow, 3rd biggest inflow ever (Chart 9),

• Korea equities: $1.5bn inflow, record $16.3bn inflow past 4 weeks (Chart 10),

• UK equities: $1.2bn outflow, biggest since Nov'25,

• Tech: $4.0bn inflow, with record $52.8bn inflow past 4 weeks (Chart 11),

• Financials: $1.5bn inflow, biggest 4-week inflow since Jan’22 ($8.8bn - Chart 12).

BofA Private Clients: $4.5tn AUM…65.6% stocks, 17.5% bonds, 9.6% cash (back at May’26 record-low); private client equity ETF share count up 5.8% YTD, 0.5% past 4 weeks, 0.2% past week; in ETFs…