BofA The Flow Show Midterms Bidterms Skidterms 2026 10 09

The Flow Show Midterms, Bidterms, Skidterms

Scores on the Doors: oil 58.5%, US stocks 13.4%, global stocks 10.6%, US$ 3.9%, cash 08 October 2026 2.8%, HY bonds -0.5%, IG -3.2%, govt bonds -4.4%, gold -4.8%, bitcoin -6.7% YTD. Investment Strategy Global Zeitgeist: “Under President Trump, the United States has made its choice. We choose the unapologetic pursuit of national power, to take back control of our critical supply chains, to reindustrialize our economy, to rebuild our defense, to fight for dominance of the technologies and industries of the future,” Marco Rubio, Athens, Oct 7th, 2026.

Zeitgeist: “China spending 5% of GDP every year on new economy, no interest rate risk, leading in everything scarce except chips, stocks don’t even need a hedge at 10x.” Michael Hartnett The Price is Right: US admin priorities of oil, resources, rare earths, semiconductors, Investment Strategist defense, AI, subordination of monetary, fiscal, financial, trade, geopolitical policy to win BofAS the 2020s US-China AI war...why midterms kind of matter. Anya Shelekhin Tale of the Tape: Bolsonaro Brazil win cements LatAm political realignment (few years Investment Strategist BofAS ago right-wing governed 60 million people, now 420 million – see maps in Charts 5 & 6); LatAm stocks still 35% from all-time highs (Chart 3)...best trade to play US “Monroe Doctrine”; Europe also politically moving right (Italy, Germany, maybe France ’27)...Spain Myung-Jee Jung Investment Strategist center-right election victory Nov 29th underrated +ve event for beleaguered Euro bonds. BofAS The Biggest Picture: bonds end bubbles...200bps pop past 18 months in Korea bond yields...largest Korean retail broker down 65% since May (Chart 2) after “4-bagger”. Jessica Guo Investment Strategist BofAS Chart 2: Bonds & Bubbles Korea’s largest retail broker

Korea Mirae Asset Securities May'26 90000 Chart 1: BofA Bull & Bear Indicator 80000 Down to 8.1 from 8.8

30000 Oct'26 Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy. The indicator 20000 identified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator is 10000 intended to be an indicative metric only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of 0 performance for any financial instrument or contract, or '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 '25 '27 otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg Global Research. This indicator was not created to act as BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH a benchmark. BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH More on page 2…

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Weekly Flows: $166.4bn to cash, $33.8bn to bonds, $12.4bn to stocks, $2.0bn to gold, $0.6bn from crypto.

• Cash: $166.4bn inflow, biggest since Apr’20 (Chart 14);

• Treasuries: $16.2bn inflow, biggest since Apr’25 (Chart 15);

• IG bonds: $10.3bn inflow, biggest in 8 weeks;

• Bank loans: $2.4bn inflow, biggest since Feb’25 (Chart 16);

• Japan stocks: $3.3bn outflow, biggest since May’26;

• Tech: $3.5bn inflow, biggest in 6 weeks;

• Financials: $3.0bn outflow, biggest since Mar’26 (Chart 17).

Cash to Know: biggest cash inflows since Apr’20...money market fund AUM $8tn, up from $5tn in '23 (Chart 9); MMFs spinning off $330bn in annual interest income with T- bill yield @ 4.2%; but ‘cash on sidelines’ stays on sidelines until big monetary easing (QE1 in '09, QE4 in '20) and/or sustained Fed cuts (Chart 10)...no rate cuts, no cash cuts.

BofA Private Clients: $4.6tn AUM…66.2% stocks, 17.1% bonds, 9.4% cash (record low); private clients adding to…