BofA U.S. REIT Weekly 2026 10 09
U.S. REITs BofA U.S. REIT Weekly
Oct 1– Oct 8: RMZ down -0.3% vs S&P 1.3% 09 October 2026
Comm. Infrastructure (+1.7%) performed best this week; Healthcare performed worst (- Equity 2.0%). Per BofA Client Flow Trends report, for week of 9/28, Real Estate flows: United States +$133mn for stocks (4-week average: +$163mn vs. +$159mn prior) and +$114mn for REITs ETFs (4-week: +$174mn vs. +$174mn prior).
BofA 2026 earnings growth: HC, Data Centers screen best Based on BofAe, the sectors with the highest ’26 Y/Y earnings growth are Healthcare at +18.3%, Data Centers at +11.5%, and Net Lease at +4.9%. The sectors with the lowest growth are Cold Storage at -11.4%, Self Storage at +0.9%, and Apartments at +1.0%. We estimate +8.0% Y/Y FFO growth in ’26 for US REITs under coverage and +9.0% in Jeffrey Spector ’27. See page 10. Research Analyst BofAS Average REIT FFOx is 17.4 vs 5-year average of 18.8x Based on Street estimates, the sectors with the highest forward 4-quarter FFO multiples Daniel Byun are Healthcare at 25.3x, Industrial at 19.1x and Comm. Infrastructure at 18.8x. Sectors Research Analyst with the lowest FFO multiples are Office at 9.8x, Net Lease at 11.2x and Shopping BofAS Centers at 13.2x. See page 17-24. See Team Page for List of Analysts
Average REIT PEG is 5.5 for 2026 and 3.6 for 2027 Based on BofAe, the sectors with the highest 2026 PEG ratios are Self Storage at 29.2, Apartments at 7.5, and Malls at 5.2. Sectors with the lowest 2026 PEG ratios are Data Exhibit 1: REITs vs. Equity Indicesi Centers at 2.1, Healthcare at 2.1, and Net Lease at 2.6. See page 11. RMZ down -0.3%
P/NAV: REITs trade at 82% of BofA’s NAV vs LTA of 97% 18% Past week YTD Sectors with the steepest discounts are Office at -22.5% and Single Family Rental at - 12% 20.9%. Sectors with the smallest discounts are Industrial at -12.1% and Self Storage at - 6% 13.0% . See page 17-24. 0%
Cap rates: implied at 6.0% vs BofA applied at 5.7% -6% This compares to 10-year yield at 5.23% & current BAA bond yield at 6.74%. Current spread between the implied cap rate & 10-yr yield is narrower at +76bp vs historical avg of +300bp. Source: Factset, BofA Global Research, priced as of 10/08/26 REITs refer to Morgan Stanley REIT Index - BofA distr yield: NL, Industrial, Multifamily rank highest ticker RMZ. The distribution rate for REITs is 4.04%, -119bp below the 10-yr Treasury yield (5.23%) BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH & -270bp below BAA Corp Bond yield. Historically, the avg spread is +111bp & -122bp, respectively Based on BofAe, sectors with the highest distribution yields are Net Lease See key terms spelled out & full Company names listed in Exhibit 37. at 6.4%, Industrial at 5.0%, and Multifamily at 4.7%. Sectors with the lowest yields are Healthcare at 2.6%, Comm. Infrastructure at 3.4%, and MH at 3.9%. page 17-24.
Spector’s US REIT top picks list Top picks: ADC, AHR, CUBE, MAC, PECO, VMRK & WELL. See more details in Exhibit 3 Inside: BofA hosted events, Spector’s top picks.
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 29 to 31. Analyst Certification on page 27. Price Objective Basis/Risk on page 26.
Contents BofA U.S. REIT Team Events Calendar 3 Spector’s Top REIT Picks 5 3Q26 Earnings Calendar 6 Links to referenced BofA reports 8 YTD performance vs. Historical 8 Year to date performance 8 Historical total rates of return 9 REIT earnings growth 10 PEG analysis: What is the price of growth? 11 REIT Valuation and distribution rate 11 Historical price to BofA net asset value (NAV) 12 Implied cap rate analysis 12 BofA cap rate trends by sector 13 Price to AFFO 13 REIT distribution rate analysis 14 Capital and Transaction flows 15 Key terms 25 Research Analysts 32
U.S. REITs | 09 October 2026 2
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