BP Plc (BP.L) Upgrading our estimates following the company's 3Q26 strong trading update

Equity Research 13 October 2026 | 8:53AM CEST

BP Plc (BP.L): Upgrading our estimates following the company’s 3Q26 strong trading update

Following BP’s 3Q26 trading statement, we make adjustments to our 3Q26 estimates Michele Della Vigna, CFA | ahead of 3Q26 reflecting a very strong reduction in net debt, a lower underlying tax Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Milan rate and continued strong operational performance across the portfolio. Overall in branch

our forecast revisions, we increase our 3Q26 RC adjusted net income estimate to Quentin Marbach | $7,492mn from $6,345mn (+18%). Goldman Sachs International

By division, in Gas & Low Carbon Energy we increase our RC operating profit forecast Yulia Bocharnikova | by $400mn to $2.6bn from $2.2bn, reflecting a significantly higher gas marketing Goldman Sachs International and trading result qoq. The company is guiding for a strong qoq reduction in net debt as well. We raise our OCF estimates from $10.5bn to $12.5bn and lower our Anastasia Shalaeva | capex estimates from $3.4bn to $3.0bn for the quarter. Goldman Sachs International

The adjustments result in a revision to our 3Q26E EPS to $0.49 from $0.41 (+18%). Will Chen | Goldman Sachs International There is no change to our annual estimates, our investment view, rating or price target.

We remain Buy rated on BP. Our 12-month price targets are unchanged at 720p and US$57.0 (ADR) based on 5.0x EV/DACF applied to 2027E cash flow. Key risks include lower-than-expected oil and gas prices or exploration success, and negative surprises to growth or capex.

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BP.L 12m Price Target: 720p Price: 588p Upside: 22.4%

BP 12m Price Target: $57.00 Price: $46.73 Upside: 22.0%

Buy GS Forecast 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Market cap: £90.2bn / $119.3bn EBIT ($ mn) 19,450.0 39,891.7 28,208.0 22,900.8 Enterprise value: EPS ($) £116.6bn / $154.1bn P/E (X) m ADTV: £247.9mn / $332.9mn EV/DACF (X) 4.6 3.5 3.9 4.3 United Kingdom Dividend yield (%) 6.0 4.4 4.6 4.8 Europe Energy and Clean Tech FCF yield (%) M&A Rank: 3 CROCI (%) Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Net debt/EBITDA (X) 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 Yes

3/26 6/26 9/26E 12/26E EPS ($)

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 12 Oct 2026 close.