Capital One Financial Corp

Equity Research 15 September 2026 | 6:56AM EDT

Capital One Financial Corp. (COF): August monthly stats: Card credit relatively in-line; Auto credit modestly higher

Bottom line: Overall, COF’s August monthly card metrics showed decent results as Ryan M. Nash, CFA | DQs were in-line with expectations while NCOs were a touch ahead of expectations. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

30D+ DQs increased by ~9bps MoM to 3.57% (expectations of ~9bp increase) and Lucas Haimes | were down 16bps YoY (relatively in-line with July’s -19bps YoY). Reported NCOs Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC were 4.16%, or up +4bps MoM which was a touch ahead of expectations for a -2bps MoM decline and were down -54bps YoY (vs -71bps YoY in July). When factoring in Charlie Driscoll | September seasonality of -8bps MoM, we estimate COF card NCOs are tracking to Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC ~4.12% vs. VA consensus of 4.40%. EOP Card loan balances were up +0.7% MoM to Gaurav Chandak $260.6bn, slightly ahead of expectations for a +0.6% increase (+2.3% YoY from | +1.9% YoY). Average loans were up +0.3% MoM to $257.5bn, modestly below Goldman Sachs India SPL

expectations of +0.5% MoM (+2.0% YoY vs. +2.2% YoY in July). For the quarter, using September expectations of +0.6%, it implies EOP card loans of $260.1bn vs. VA consensus of $262.8bn. In the auto segment, DQs increased +4bps MoM to 4.54%, above expectations and were down -49bps YoY (vs. -66bps in July), while NCOs were up +18bps MoM to 1.66%, slightly underperforming expectations of +16bps MoM. EOP loans were up +1.5% MoM (+0.2% vs. expectations). When we put it all together, credit continues to perform well and is tracking ahead of expectations while loans are improving which should be well received.

DQs in-line and NCOs a touch higher for card; DQs and NCOs modestly higher for auto: Card 30+ DQs were up +9bps MoM to 3.57%, in-line with historical expectations of +9bps MoM. Reported NCOs were 4.16% up +4bps MoM, above expectations of -2bps. In auto, DQs increased by +14bps MoM modestly underperforming expectations while auto NCOs were up +18bps MoM which is a touch ahead of historical expectations of +16bps.

Loan growth outperforms in card and auto: EOP card loan balances increased +0.7% MoM to $260.6bn, a touch ahead of expectations of +0.6% (+2.3% YoY vs. +1.9% in July). Average card loan balances were up +0.3% MoM to $257.5bn and were up +2.0% YoY (vs +2.2% in July). On the auto side, EOP balances were up +1.5% MoM to $91.9bn and were above seasonal trends (+0.2% expected). On a YoY basis EOP auto balances were up +12.7% (vs. +12.1% in July). Average auto loans also increased by +1.5% MoM to $91.2bn.

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Goldman Sachs Capital One Financial Corp. (COF)

Exhibit 1: COF August card credit stats 12 months 2015-2019 Delta vs. LT 12 months 2015-2019 Delta vs. LT 30+ del Current YoY LT avg 3yr avg MOM NCO ratio Current YoY LT avg 3yr avg MOM before avg avg before avg avg

Jan-26 4.04% 4.31% -27 bp 10 bp 8 bp 13 bp 5 bp -3 bp Jan-26 5.04% 5.87% -83 bp 4 bp 4 bp 9 bp 3 bp -1 bp Feb-26 3.96% 4.23% -27 bp -12 bp -10 bp -2 bp -8 bp 2 bp Feb-26 5.17% 6.22% -105 bp 15 bp 16 bp 40 bp 13 bp -3 bp Mar-26 3.70% 4.02% -32 bp -20 bp -20 bp -15 bp -26 bp -6 bp Mar-26 5.09% 5.63% -54 bp 0 bp -9 bp -19 bp -8 bp 1 bp Apr-26 3.44% 3.77% -33 bp -13 bp -15 bp -17 bp -26 bp -11 bp Apr-26 4.94% 5.41% -47 bp -1 bp -4 bp -5 bp -15 bp -11 bp May-26 3.33% 3.85% -52 bp -3 bp -8 bp -2 bp -11 bp -3 bp May-26 4.82% 5.29% -47 bp -15 bp -12 bp 6 bp -12 bp 0 bp Jun-26 3.39% 3.60% -21 bp 7 bp 4 bp 6 bp 6 bp 2 bp Jun-26 4.37% 5.15% -78 bp -18 bp -18 bp -5 bp -45 bp -27 bp Jul-26 3.48% 3.67% -19 bp 11 bp 9 bp 12 bp 9 bp 0 bp Jul-26 4.12% 4.83% -71 bp -12 bp…