Capital One Financial Corp

Equity Research 17 August 2026 | 7:12AM EDT

Capital One Financial Corp. (COF): July monthly stats: Card credit in-line while loans a touch softer; auto credit outperforms

Bottom line: Overall, COF’s July metrics were decent as DQs and NCOs in card were Ryan M. Nash, CFA | in-line with expectations while loan growth came in a touch below (likely driven by an Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

increase in the DFS Brownout). Additionally, auto metrics were solid, with DQs and Lucas Haimes | NCOs outperforming seasonality and loan growth coming in stronger than expected. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 30D+ card DQs increased by +9bps MoM and fell -19bps YoY to 3.48% (-21bps YoY in June), which was in-line with expectations (we estimate +9bps of seasonality). Reported NCOs were 4.12%, down -25bps MoM (-71bps YoY vs. -78bps in June), in-line with expectations of -25bps. Card loan balances were flat MoM on an EOP basis, a touch softer than expectations for +0.4% growth (+1.9% YoY vs. +2.6% in June; potentially the impact of the brownout accelerating and in-line with guide), while avg loans were up +0.2% MoM (vs. +0.2% expected) and up +2.2% YoY vs. +2.4% in June.

In the auto segment, DQs increased by +7bps MoM to 4.39%, outperforming expectations of +31bps, while NCOs were down -17bps MoM to 1.48%, outperforming expectations of +16bps MoM. Auto EOP loans were up +1.4% MoM (+1.3% vs. expectations of +0.0%; +12.1% YoY) while average loans were up +1.4% MoM (+11.9% YoY; +11.3% YoY in June), ahead of expectations of +0.0%. When we put it all together, card credit outperformance was in-line and while the YoY growth in card loans decelerated in the quarter, we think it is likely attributable to the “brown-out” increasing (and likely bottoming in 4Q).

Card DQs and NCOs in-line; auto credit outperforms: Card 30+ DQs were up +9bps MoM and -19bps YoY (vs -21bps in June) to 3.48%, in-line with expectations of +9bps MoM. Reported NCOs were 4.12%, down -25bps MoM (-71bps YoY vs. -78bps in June), in-line with expectations of -25bps. In auto, COF saw DQs saw increase +7bps MoM (-66bps YoY vs. -51bps in June), outperforming seasonality of +31bps MoM. Auto NCOs were down -17bps MoM (+11bps YoY vs. -4bps in June), outperforming seasonality of +16bps.

Card loans a touch softer while auto outperforms: EOP card loan balances were flat MoM at $258.9bn, a touch softer than expectations of +0.4%, and were up +1.9% YoY compared to +2.6% in June. Average loan balances were up +0.2% MoM to $256.7bn while up +2.2% YoY (vs +2.4% in June). On the auto side, EOP balances increased by +1.4% MoM to $90.6bn and were above seasonal trends (flat at +0.0% MoM expected). On a YoY basis, EOP auto balances were up +12.1% (vs. +11.6% in June). Average auto loans increased by +1.4% MoM to $89.8bn (above expectations of flat).

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Goldman Sachs Capital One Financial Corp. (COF)

Exhibit 1: COF July card DQ/NCO stats 12 months 2015-2019 Delta vs. LT 12 months 2015-2019 Delta vs. LT 30+ del Current YoY LT avg 3yr avg MOM NCO ratio Current YoY LT avg 3yr avg MOM before avg avg before avg avg

Jan-26 4.04% 4.31% -27 bp 10 bp 8 bp 13 bp 5 bp -3 bp Jan-26 5.04% 5.87% -83 bp 4 bp 4 bp 9 bp 3 bp -1 bp Feb-26 3.96% 4.23% -27 bp -12 bp -10 bp -2 bp -8 bp 2 bp Feb-26 5.17% 6.22% -105 bp 15 bp 16 bp 40 bp 13 bp -3 bp Mar-26 3.70% 4.02% -32 bp -20 bp -20 bp -15 bp -26 bp -6 bp Mar-26 5.09% 5.63% -54 bp 0 bp -9 bp -19 bp -8 bp 1 bp Apr-26 3.44% 3.77% -33 bp -13 bp -15 bp -17 bp -26 bp -11 bp Apr-26 4.94% 5.41% -47 bp -1 bp -4 bp -5 bp -15 bp -11 bp May-26 3.33% 3.85% -52 bp -3 bp -8 bp -2 bp -11 bp -3 bp May-26 4.82% 5.29% -47 bp -15 bp -12 bp 6 bp -12 bp 0 bp Jun-26 3.39% 3.60% -21 bp 7 bp 4…