Carrefour (CARR)

Equity Research 24 July 2026 | 4:54PM BST

Carrefour (CARR.PA): Focus on 2H delivery after 1H EBIT miss; TP to €18, remain Neutral

GS View: The 1H EBIT miss was largely driven by non-core and central functions, although Richard Edwards | France was a 4% miss offset by beats in Spain and Brazil. From here, the focus remains on Goldman Sachs International the credibility of the better LFL sales and EBIT margins required across the group to achieve Ben Williams the reiterated FY26 EBIT guidance, in particular a significant rebound in 2H French EBIT | margin (c.+50bp). We broadly maintain our FY26E EBIT at €2.35bn and FCF of €1.56bn Goldman Sachs International

(from €1.54bn), assuming ongoing strong revenue growth trends in Spain, and the Hamish Bogdan | anniversary of Cora & Match integration costs in France. In this context, and given an Goldman Sachs International undemanding valuation (double-digit FCF yield) and our €18 TP (from €17) implying an 11x FY27E EV/NOPAT, we remain Neutral rated.

Carrefour reported 2Q26 results with group cFX sales growth +1.8% and sales incl. VAT of €22.71bn. Group LFLs (ex-fuel and calendar effects) increased +1.9%, split France +1.0%, Spain +2.2%, Brazil +0.4% and Other countries +8.0%. France LFLs were split Hypermarkets +0.8%, Supermarkets +1.0%, and Convenience/Other formats +1.1%. For Other Countries, Belgium +1.3%, Poland -5.8% and Argentina +23.5%.

1H26 group underlying EBIT was €757mn at a 1.9% margin split France €300mn at a 1.5% margin, Spain €177mn at a 3.3% margin, Brazil €359mn at a 4.0% margin, Other Countries -€34mn at a -0.8% margin and Global functions -€46mn. 1H26 group adj. EPS was €0.49 with free cash flow of -€1.99bn ex. Italy, down €64mn yoy.

FY26 guidance reiterated: 1) > 25bps adj. EBIT margin expansion; 2) HSD growth in adj. EPS; 3) €1.0bn in cost savings; 4) FCF increase vs 2025 ex-Italy (FY25 €1.565bn); 5) Capex €1.7bn (from €1.8bn due to Romania disposal).

Implications: On the back of the results, we now forecast FY26E group sales growth of +3.2% (ex-Romania), split France +2.2%, Spain +3.0%, and Brazil +7.0%. We forecast France/Spain/Brazil/Other Countries FY26E EBIT margin of 2.7%/4.3%/3.7%/0.3%, driving our FY26E EBIT forecast of €2.35bn (from €2.36bn) at a 2.8% margin (unchanged). Lastly, we project FY26E FCF of €1.56bn (from €1.54bn).

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

Goldman Sachs Carrefour (CARR.PA)

Exhibit 1: Carrefour - Income Statement, FY21-30E €mn Goldman Sachs MidCap Research xxxxx 24/07/2026 Carrefour Pro forma financial model In Euro millions Income statement E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E Sales 74,286 84,352 84,908 87,270 84,025 83,827 85,694 87,234 88,788 90,386 Growth % 3.0% 13.6% 0.7% 2.8% -3.7% 3.2% 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

EBITDA post IFRS 16 4,472 4,612 4,559 4,637 4,392 4,613 4,779 4,908 5,039 5,174 EBITDA margin 6.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.3% 5.2% 5.5% 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% 5.7% Underlying EBIT (post IFRS 16) 2,194 2,376 2,264 2,213 2,158 2,351 2,470 2,554 2,641 2,730 Underlying EBIT margin 2.95% 2.82% 2.67% 2.54% 2.57% 2.80% 2.88% 2.93% 2.97% 3.02%

Interest income 73 - - 40 - - - - - Interest expense (ST+LT) ( ) IFRS 16 capitalised operating lease payments ( ) Associate income EBT 1,553 1,972 1,340 1,093 1,559 1,850 1,977 2,069 2,159 2,251 % of sales 2.1% 2.3% 1.6% 1.3% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% Underlying EBT (pre exceptionals) 1,927 1,936 1,898 1,517 1,621 1,850 1,977 2,069 2,159 2,251 % of sales 2.6% 2.3% 2.2% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5%

Taxes ( ) Tax rate 42.8% 20.7% 32.8% 27.7% 33.1% 33.0% 33.0% 33.0% 33.0% 33.0% Minorities ( ) Underlying Net income 890 1,365 1,221 1,081 1,090 1,169 1,254 1,316 1,377 1,438 Growth % 15.8% 53.4% -10.5% -11.5% 0.8% 7.3% 7.3% 4.9% 4.6% 4.5%

Per…