CEEMEA Week Ahead NBU to Hike by 50bp

Economics Research 24 July 2026 | 4:08PM BST

CEEMEA Week Ahead: NBU to Hike by 50bp; CPI in PL and KE; GDP in HU and CZ; Fiscal Data in ZA

In the coming week, there will be an MPC meeting in Ukraine (Thursday). The first CPI data Kevin Daly | for July will be released in Poland (Friday) and Kenya (Friday), while Q2 GDP data will be Goldman Sachs International

released in Hungary and Czechia (both on Thursday). Additionally, the monthly budget Clemens Grafe | execution data for June will be released in South Africa on Thursday. Goldman Sachs International

In Ukraine, in a change of call, we expect the NBU to hike its policy rate by 50bp to Andrew Matheny | +15.50% (previously a hold; consensus: +15.00%), and to deliver data-dependent Goldman Sachs International guidance, signalling that it is prepared to hike its policy rate further unless inflationary pressures begin to abate. This shift reflects hawkish developments since the last MPC, Farouk Soussa | including higher-than-expected core inflation, rising inflation expectations, a weaker Goldman Sachs International Hryvnia, and heightened oil price risks following the US-Iran escalation. In Kenya, we Ludovica Ambrosino expect headline CPI to edge up, albeit at a slower pace, from +6.4%yoy in June to +6.5%yoy | in July, driven by higher food inflation. In Poland, we expect headline CPI to rise from Goldman Sachs International

+2.5%yoy to +3.0%yoy in July (consensus: +3.0%yoy), almost entirely driven by transport Basak Edizgil | fuel inflation, as the removal of the war-related fuel price measures (a lower VAT rate and a Goldman Sachs International cap) at the end of June has resulted in a sharp (10-15%mom) jump in domestic fuel prices. Johan Allen In Hungary, we expect growth to continue strengthening from +0.8%qoq in Q1 to | +0.9%qoq in Q2 (consensus: +0.8%qoq), corresponding to an increase from +1.7%yoy to Goldman Sachs International

+2.1%yoy (consensus: +1.9%yoy). In Czechia, we expect growth to rise from +0.2%qoq to +0.7%qoq in Q2 (consensus: +0.5%qoq). This corresponds to a year-over-year increase from +2.2%yoy to +2.4%yoy (consensus: +2.2%yoy). In South Africa, we expect corporate income tax (CIT) receipts to outperform relative to the budget projection (ZAR364bn for FY26/27), given lagged tax payments reflecting commodity exporter profitability. For the full fiscal year, we anticipate revenue outperformance of around ZAR20bn or 0.2pp of GDP.

Ukraine: In a Change of Call, We Expect the NBU to Hike Its Policy Rate by 50bp

The NBU board will meet on Thursday, July 30, and, in a change of call, we expect it to hike its policy rate by 50bp to +15.50% (previously, we expected it to remain on hold; consensus expects a hold at +15.00%). At the June MPC, the NBU remained on hold, but strongly indicated that it was considering a July hike, explicitly stating that “the next decision will be based on the July macroeconomic forecast”. Although headline inflation surprised both the NBU and consensus to the downside in June, the decline was entirely due to food, and core inflation is running 0.9pp higher than the NBU projected in May (at +8.1%yoy). In its latest comment on recent inflation developments, the NBU highlights that “price pressures are expected to increase primarily because of substantial production costs faced by businesses, particularly labor costs” and that this factor – as well as a number of other pro-inflationary factors – will be incorporated into its latest forecast. This strongly suggests the NBU will revise its inflation forecast upwards, which alone would likely persuade it to hike, but we

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

Goldman Sachs CEEMEA Week Ahead

also note that inflation expectations have risen, the Hryvnia sold off sharply in the past week (and weakened 6.3% against the Dollar year-to-date), while global oil prices (and local fuel prices) have risen significantly since the US-Iran escalation. We thus expect the NBU to hike and to deliver data-dependent guidance, signalling that it is prepared to hike…