China Basic Materials Monitor Aug 2026 Supply keeping prices supported amid weak demand

Equity Research 24 August 2026 | 3:15PM HKT

Aug 2026: Supply keeping price supported amid weak demand

Summary: End-user orderbooks mildly picked up as of Channel checks: Based on producer feedback in our Trina Chen | mid-Aug, inline with past seasonality, mainly driven by proprietary survey, the forward orderbook trend picked up Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

seasonal move in auto. Construction demand further MoM – 42%/35% of respondents indicated a MoM Joy Zhang | softened, including the absence of new infrastructure improving trend in August for downstream sectors and Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

projects starts and setups - unusually quiet in the context of commodities respectively. Roy Shi | the beginning of a new five-year plan. Other feedback Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

indicates softening export orders in semi-fabricated Exhibit 1: Downstream order book picked up MoM in Aug Fiona Ye | aluminium and finished goods (reflected in paper packaging Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. 2023-present

orders), but strength in machinery, ESS and power-related Daisy Dai | segments. Nevertheless, supply constraints are supporting Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

commodity prices: 1) safety enforcement in coal, 2) the delayed return of copper smelter maintenance due to scrap, 3) higher aluminum net exports by an annualized 2.8 mnt Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25

over 2Q26 and July, 4) the impact of CBAM on steel exports May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Aug-26 Sep-26 Oct-26 Nov-26 Dec-26

remains to be seen. Finished goods inventory eased MoM 2019-2022

but remains high in battery, machinery, and selected metal fabrications.

High-frequency data suggest that, in the first half of August, Chinese demand was 5-10% lower yoy for cement and Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22

construction steel, 1-2% lower for copper and flat steel. % of respondents seeing declining MoM order book % of respondents seeing improving MoM order book China PMI

Margin/pricing for aluminium, copper and coal improved, while steel and cement softened, and lithium was stable. Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (proprietary survey)

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Goldman Sachs China Basic Materials Monitor

China Basic Materials – coverage summary 3

China Basic Materials Monitor (Aug 2026): Supply keeping price supported amid weak demand 5

China downstream demand snapshots - infrastructure 9

China downstream demand snapshots - property 10

China downstream demand snapshots - traditional manufacturing 11

China downstream demand snapshots - advanced manufacturing 12

China downstream demand snapshots - power, transport, and exports 13

Copper: scrap supporting the tight market 14

Aluminium/Alumina: slowing down in exports 17

Steel: uncertainty around impact from the CBAM 22

Steel-making raw materials: deeper discount expectation 24

Coal: tight safety enforcement still capping coal output 27

Cement: very quiet infrastructure outlook 30

Paper packaging: implied weaker export outlook 33

Target price methodologies and risks 36