China Both CPI and PPI inflation picked up in August

Economics Research 9 September 2026 | 11:23AM HKT

China: Both CPI and PPI inflation picked up in August

Bottom line: Xinquan Chen | China’s headline CPI inflation rose to +0.8% yoy in August from +0.5% yoy in July, Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

mainly on higher energy and transportation services prices. Headline PPI inflation rose to +3.8% yoy in August from +3.5% yoy in July, mainly due to higher prices for downstream products. Higher prices for semiconductor-related products accounted for about half of the increase in downstream product prices.

CPI: +0.8% yoy (+0.5% mom annualized*) in August vs. GS: +0.7% yoy, Bloomberg consensus: +0.8% yoy; July: +0.5% yoy (-4.1% mom annualized*).

n Food: -1.4% yoy in August (-3.8% mom annualized*) vs. -1.5% yoy in July. n Non-food: +1.2% yoy in August (+4.0% mom annualized*) vs. +0.9% yoy in July. n Core: +1.0% yoy in July (+1.7% mom annualized*) vs. +0.9% yoy in June.

PPI: +3.8% yoy in August (+2.8% mom annualized*) vs. GS: +3.5% yoy, Bloomberg consensus: +3.6% yoy; July: +3.5% yoy (-6.1% mom annualized*).

1. China’s headline CPI inflation rose to +0.8% yoy in August from +0.5% yoy in July, mainly on higher energy prices (Exhibit 2). In month-on-month terms, headline CPI inflation rose to +0.5% (annualized, seasonally adjusted) in August (vs. -4.1% mom s.a. ann in July).

2. In year-over-year terms, food inflation edged up to -1.4% yoy in August from -1.5% yoy in July. Among major food items, pork prices fell by 11.8% yoy in August (vs. -13.3% yoy in July). Fresh vegetable prices decreased by 2.8% yoy in August (vs. -0.3% yoy in July), and fresh fruit prices declined by 0.5% yoy in August (vs. -1.1% yoy in July).

3. Non-food CPI inflation rose to +1.2% yoy in August from +0.9% yoy in July, mainly on higher prices for vehicle fuel and transportation services (Exhibit 3). Fuel costs rose by +8.3% yoy in August (vs. +0.8% yoy in July), and transportation services price inflation increased by 3.0% yoy in August (vs. 0.4% yoy in July). After excluding food and energy prices, core CPI inflation edged up to +1.0% yoy in August (vs. +0.9% yoy in July).

4. Year-over-year PPI inflation rose to +3.8% yoy in August from +3.5% yoy in July,

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mainly due to higher prices for downstream products (Exhibit 4). The contribution of upstream sectors to year-over-year headline PPI inflation was roughly unchanged from July to August, as the rise of oil-related product prices was mostly offset by the decline in prices of ferrous metals. Meanwhile, higher prices for semiconductor-related products accounted for about half of the increase in downstream product prices. In month-over-month terms, PPI inflation rose to +2.8% (annualized, seasonally adjusted) in August (vs. -6.1% in July). PPI inflation in producer goods rose to +5.0% yoy in August from +4.8% yoy in July, and PPI inflation in consumer goods rose to -0.5% yoy in August (vs. -0.8% yoy in July).

Exhibit 1: Both headline CPI and PPI inflation rose in Exhibit 2: Headline CPI inflation rose in August mainly on year-over-year terms from July to August higher energy prices

Percent change, yoy Percent change, yoy Percentage Percentage 16 16 6 6 Year-over-year Headline CPI Inflation China inflation measures 5 Core 5 12 CPI 12 Food 4 Energy 4 PPI 8 8 Headline 3 3

Source: NBS Source: NBS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 3: Goods inflation picked up mainly on higher Exhibit 4: PPI inflation rose from July to August, mainly energy prices in August, and services inflation also edged due to higher prices for downstream products up

%, yoy %, yoy Percentage point Percentage point 5 5 20 20 Contribution to year-over-year PPI inflation China's CPI inflation Ferrous metals mining/smelting Nonferrous metals mining/smelting 4 4 15 Petrol mining/processing Coal mining 15 Raw chemicals/chemical fiber Nonmetal mining/mfg Downstream Headline 3 3 10 10

Goods inflation -5 -5 -1 -1 Goods inflation (excluding food and vehicle fuel) Services inflation -

Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global…