China Grid Tech Power Transformer Export Tracker June China transformer total exports at 47 yoy, with exports to US at +17...

Equity Research 29 July 2026 | 3:09PM HKT

China Grid Tech: Power Transformer Export Tracker: June China transformer total exports at 47% yoy, with exports to US at +172% yoy

In this latest Power Transformer Export Tracker, we provide an update as of June. Jacqueline Du | US transformer PPI remained stable at an elevated level, while China’s export price in Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. the 220-330MVA segment (April-June rolling average) was -8% yoy likely due to mix change. June total (>10MVA) transformer export value growth reached 47% yoy (vs 72% yoy in May). In particular, transformer exports to the US delivered 172% yoy growth or 52% mom.

We continue to estimate that the US power transformer demand-local supply gap will narrow from 72% currently to 57% by 2028E, and still expect the shortage to persist, leaving room for non-traditional suppliers, including those in China.

Key ideas: Sieyuan (Buy), Nari Tech (Buy), Huaming (Buy): Global transformer lead times remain elevated at around 128 weeks (link), while capacity expansion typically takes 2-3 years. By contrast, Sieyuan can deliver transformers in around 6-9 months, or 24-36 weeks, and expand capacity within roughly one year, supported by China’s agile supply chain. We like Nari Tech for its exposure to domestic grid capex and rising export potential in converter valves and secondary equipment. For Huaming, we upgraded to Buy on attractive valuation of 18x 12-m forward P/E, post a sharper correction than peers (link). Amid market concerns about the visibility of AI capex and the valuation of high-beta AI infrastructure names, we believe Huaming offers a more defensive way to gain exposure to the multi-year global grid upgrade cycle with or without the AI benefit, supported by aging infrastructure, renewable integration and overseas market-share gains of its on-load tap changer in the duopolistic market.

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Goldman Sachs China Grid Tech: Power Transformer Export Tracker

Exhibit 1: We estimate that the US power transformer demand/local supply gap would narrow from 72% to 57% in 2028E; despite China export ASP volatilities, US PPI has stabilized at a high level

Power transformer ASP evolvement US local power transformer demand/supply gap (%) US local pricing (benchmark to US PPI) Export to US pricing (index Jan 2022 = 100, 3m rolling, 220-330MVA) 250 +3.9% yoy

China Customs export pricing is on a FOB basis. US local pricing is estimated with a bidding document, then applied with the PPI for transformers of all power range, not 220-300MVA specifically.

Source: Company data, Expert estimate, FRED, State Grid, China Customs, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 2: China total transformer export value picked up Exhibit 3: China transformer export value to the US grew to 47% yoy in June (vs 72% in May) +172% yoy in June or 52% mom

Transformer (>10MVA) export value (Rmb mn) Transformer export value to US (Rmb mn) 3,500 Americas Europe Asia Middle East Africa 350.0 10MVA-220MVA 220MVA-330MVA 330MVA-400MVA 400MVA-500MVA >500MVA 3,000 300.0

Source: China Customs, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Source: China customs, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Research

Pricing remained stable in the US: US transformer PPI has remained stable since Oct 2025 at a high level, at 3.9% yoy in June. Power transformers had an earlier price appreciation than other categories (due to renewable energy penetration prior to AIDC), while switchgear has been catching up in pricing, reaching 11% yoy in June, despite sequentially slightly down in June; gas turbine pricing was slightly up sequentially, reaching 5% yoy growth in June.

Among China…