China Three things in China

Economics Research 6 September 2026 | 11:18PM HKT

Three quick highlights from China: Hui Shan | Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. n Mixed August PMI: China’s official NBS PMIs were mixed in August. The manufacturing PMI rose more than expected, from 49.2 in July to 49.8, while the services PMI was unchanged at 49.3 and the construction PMI edged down from 47.0 to 46.9. The data continue to point to strong manufacturing, stagnant services, and contracting construction activity.

August NBS PMIs: manufacturing rebounded, services were unchanged, and construction fell

62 NBS Manufacturing PMI 62 NBS Services PMI 60 NBS Construction PMI 60

44 44 Jul-19 Apr-20 Jan-21 Oct-21 Jul-22 Apr-23 Jan-24 Oct-24 Jul-25 Apr-26

n China in the long run series: As China’s economy undergoes structural transformation and US-China competition intensifies, we have launched a new research series, “China in the long run,” to examine long-term China macro themes (see our video summary here). In the latest piece, we explain why, from Beijing’s perspective, gradual CNY appreciation against the US dollar (3–5% per year) best balances multiple objectives, including helping China catch up to US nominal GDP in USD terms.

n Trade and inflation data preview: China will release August trade and inflation data this week. High-frequency shipping data and Korea trade data suggest both export and import growth accelerated year over year from July to August. We forecast export growth to rise to 26.0% yoy from 23.9%, and import growth to increase to 32.6% yoy from 27.5%. On inflation, we expect CPI inflation to rise to 0.7% yoy from 0.5%, while PPI inflation remains unchanged at 3.5% yoy. Our inflation forecasts are below consensus.

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Recent GS China macro research

Asia in Focus: Why Beijing may favor gradual RMB appreciation, 2 September 2026

Asia Economics Analyst: China’s Broad-Based Export Strength to Persist Despite Limited AI Boost, 23 August 2026

China Matters: From Weak to Weaker, 21 August 2026

Asia in Focus: China Retail Sales: Policy Tailwinds Fade, H2 Growth Likely Remains Low, 14 August 2026

Asia Economics Analyst: A Historic Opportunity for RMB Bond Internationalization?, 9 August 2026

China Economic Activity and Policy Tracker: Sep 4, 4 September 2026

AEJ Week Ahead: China trade/inflation/credit data, 4 September 2026

China: Unofficial services PMI increased in August, 3 September 2026

Hong Kong: PMI fell further in August, 3 September 2026

China: Unofficial manufacturing PMI rose in August, 1 September 2026

Hong Kong: Retail sales remained largely flat in July, 31 August 2026

China: Official manufacturing PMI rose while non-manufacturing PMI roughly flat in August, 31 August 2026

China: Both industrial profits and revenue fell sequentially in July, 27 August 2026

GS China Econ Proprietary Indicators: August, 25 August 2026

Team presentation materials and webinar replays:

China in the Long Run: Introducing a New Research Series [Video], 3 September 2026

China: GS China Economic Outlook: September 2026 [Presentation], 1 September 2026

Macro & Strategy | Global Macro, Activity Data, Market Views (in Mandarin), 24 August 2026

Andrew Tilton Hui Shan Lisheng Wang Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Xinquan Chen Yuting Yang Chelsea Song Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.